Was it Divine Intervention, Pure Luck, Coincidence, or the F_word?

[TruthIsAll]

Let's calculate the probability that:

1. 41 out of 50 states would move beyond the Exit poll percentage split in favor of Bush in the final vote tally.

The probability of a positive move to Bush (or Kerry) in the vote tally is equal to 50%.

Let's calculate the probability that at least 41 out of 50 states move to Bush, which is exactly what occurred.

Using the Excel binomial distribution function,the probability is:
P = 1-BINOMDIST(41, 50, 50%,TRUE) = 0.000058%

The odds are 1/P or ONE out of 1,718,869 that this could have occurred by chance.
...................................................................

2. Bush would win Florida and Ohio.

Based on the Exit Polls:
The probability that Bush would win FL = .025
The probability that Bush would win OH = .023

Therefore the probability that Bush would win BOTH states is
P = .023 * .025 = .0000575

The odds are 1/P or ONE out of 1,739 that this could have occurred by chance.
.............................................................


3. 16 out of 41 states would move beyond the Exit Poll margin of error – all in favor of Bush.

The probability that Bush's vote tally minus his Exit Poll percentage in any state would exceed the margin of error is .025

Here is the probability that 16 out of 51 states would move beyond the MOE in favor of Bush, again using the Binomial Distribution.

The probability is P =1 – BINOMDIST (16,51,0.025,TRUE)
or P = 0.0000000000004996%

The odds are 1/P, or ONE out of 200.159 TRILLION, that 16 state vote tallies would deviate beyond the MOE (all in favor of Bush) by chance. By the way, not ONE state moved beyond the MOE to Kerry.

[bleever]

1. Kick.

[Patsy Stone]

2. Please go grade my quiz...I think I did really well.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x95374

That was a fun one! I had a blast. :)

[Left Brain]

3. tia,

your skill and finesse with these stats never ceases to amaze me, and your conviction is always inspirational. Thanks much.

[GOPBasher]

4. Thanks for this analysis, TruthisAll. With our permission, I'd like to

print it and show it to as many people as I can.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Please do it

I wanted a short, simple post which would illustrate several meaningful probabilities in order to put it all in context.

ONE in 200 TRILLION should shake them up. And it's true.

tia

[understandinglife]

9. Fwd to Brad Blog and cross posted to dKos....(n/t)

[understandinglife]

5. Thank you for your analysis and persistence; and....

....would appreciate your comments on:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x97709#97813

"Halt, Audit & Prove My Vote Counts, Now"

[TruthIsAll]

7. Very well stated, both the original post and your reply.

Lots of passion. That's what I see.

But does Kerry have the passion?
I think Edwards has it.

Unfortunately, most Dems are afraid to show it.

[understandinglife]

8. Well, we are all going to find out...

...one way or the other. Have written to folk who have various levels of access to Senator Kerry and requested they give him a copy of the letter. Some have already responded and indicated they are supportive of the strategy in the letter and will strive to get it to him.

The key to my 'passion' is that I've spent my entire career doing quantitative and systems biology. Thus, it takes me less than a heart beat to read your analysis and understand the implications.

But, way beyond analysis, all I needed to read were the accounts of voter suppression from numerous sources. With that, and with the behavior of the Republicans in 2000 and all the consequences of the failure of even one US Senator to stand on 6 Jan 2001 and demand a comprehensive audit of every ballot in FL (at the least!) and my 'passion' ignited.

We have had two invalid national elections; anyone who wants to argue that either knows no facts, or is truly in need of medical help.

We must halt the current election. We must have a valid election or our franchise is bankrupt and whatever 'government' emerges it is definitely not based on the Constitution of the United States of America.

Thank you for your diligence and precision.