NH Will Hurt Our Credibility? How do we Counter?

[smartvoter]

I would imagine that NH is going to be shoved down our throats, along with the headline, if not conclusion, from the alleged audit done by the Herald in Florida.

There are plenty of people who will say that no manner of evidence would convince us, and these events are proof that we are not living in reality.

We need a strategy for dealing with this. My initial thoughts are that we create a laundry list of problems that we have uncovered -- Volusia, machines counting backwards, the need for a revote in NC, etc., and all the other "etc."s we know about. But we've already been waving this flag...

What do we do now?

[bluetrain]

1. The impression I got was that Bev backed Nader's interest in NH

I don't understand why they chose that state. If Nader really is working for the Wrongs, I can understad why he would do it but Bev knows enough that if nothing was there she wouldn't. I don't get it. A couple weeks ago when I had that late night conversation with Fisher they said NH was turning up blank. I asked them the same questions and they didn't have answers to them, either. But, frankly, this puts me a little closer to beliving Fisher since they got this right.

[smartvoter]

5. Isn't NH where the greatest exit poll deviation existed?

[papau]

8. Yes - but paper trails via pre-Diebold ownership of BBV - so

our guess that it was in the Gems program may be the answer.

11 precincts were counted - but did anyone review the county and state level central tabulation records for those precincts? And is a comparison being made between the county and state level central tabulating records and comparing them to the actual ballots cast at each precinct?

Many feel the scale of 'red shift' would be most efficiently achieved by truly 'simple' manipulation of tables at county-level tabulation centers.

Until Bev or Ida report on the above, I would not worry about the GOP spin on NH.

[smartvoter]

10. Isn't that a little too much "inside baseball" for the general pop?

Don't we still face challenges if it's reported that there were no errors in a recount? That's how it's being reported right now.

[papau]

13. "no errors in a recount" ignores exit poll - no errors in exit poll means

there were errors in count.

This paper trail verification just means it was not at the machine level.

But the media will report whatever the GOP want and rationalize that fact however they must.

I suspect it will indeed be "no errors in a recount"

[AntiFascist]

44. One of the big problems is the enormity of the central tabulator...

hackability issue, and the fact that the general population doesn't have a clue about it. Everyone associates the black box voting problem with the electronic voting machines, not machines that tabulate votes from other systems as well. Has Keith Olbermann talked about this much?

[righteous1]

11. Deviation from exits

11% NH 6% FLA 4% OH

[bemis12]

41. The problem in NH

is that an 11% spread in the exits made it OBVIOUS that that particular exit poll was way wrong. That state got polled a lot, and there was NEVER a poll that showed either candidate with any significant lead.

Anyone should have been able to look at the NH exit poll and say "That can't be right."

[Eloriel]

32. Please see these threads for "why"

It was DUer who did this, who persuaded Nader to take on the recount. that in turn got Cobb and Badnerik involved in OH, and now the two of them have gone on to ask for recounts in NH and NM.

(No offense, but GAWD I'm tired of explaining this in every other thread I encounter. You have an excuse -- you're relatively new here -- and welcome to DU, btw. Don't take this personally, it's not aimed at you.)

Here are some threads with some background:

Want to Help America Recount? The website is UP!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1344801
Link: www.helpamericarecount.org
National Ballot Integrity Project http://www.ballotintegrity.org/

***** Donations for the Recount" Fundraising Kit > > >
(Use this to send to your friends -- enormous amount of info -- pick and choose what you need)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x37833


BACKGROUND:
DU INFO ALERT: Why Recounting in New Hampshire Could Save Democracy
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2617155

Need Some DU Help w/New Hampshire Stuff!!! (URGENT)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=26802&mesg_id=26802

RALPH NADER MAY SAVE THE WORLD!!! (Its NOT Over in NH!) Updated Fri 8:15p
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x25116

Nader requests NH vote recount. (Did we just make a huge blunder?)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=965216

Nader, Cobb and Badnarik may all be willing to look into recounts in Ohio
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x26843



and here is where you can keep somewhat up to date with news, developments, activism, etc.:

VOTE FRAUD LINKS - A DU Compendium - Thread #4
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=201&topic_id=6166&mesg_id=6166

VOTE FRAUD LINKS - A DU Compendium - Thread #3
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x4927

VOTE FRAUD Links Compendium - Thread #2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x3223

VOTE FRAUD Links - a DU Compendium
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=1984#

[understandinglife]

2. Regarding NH (and every other 'red-shift' state) I suggest you focus on...

.....what I've written here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=97506&mesg_id=97667

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=97506&mesg_id=97735&page=

Peace.

"I Delcare The Election Invalid: Someone I do not know was prevented from voting"

[Lisabtrucking]

3. That was Nader's thinking all the time.

Nader was so mad at the democrats about the election, he knew that NH was ok and if he could prove it. Ohio would be very hard to get a recount. I don't trust Nader. Don't you think it was odd that he went after a state that was for Kerry, instead of helping the green party. Well I do. Thats just how I feel about this on.

[genius]

4. Nader was never on our side. He works for Bush.

[righteous1]

12. That's Nonsense

[understandinglife]

6. He has proved nothing. The approach is fundamentally flawed.

Unless you count every precinct -- manual count of every ballot -- and then compare those counts to the tables in the databases in the central tabulating systems in each county, you have NOT BEGUN to do the analysis correctly.

And, that is truly only one aspect of what would need to be investigated.

Just look at how vehement, nasty, ugly, fierce the republicans are already being in WA State. That is not about getting Rossi into the Governor's mansion; it is because they know what will happen if every ballot in that state is inspected and those results are then compared to the tables in the databases of each county's central tabulating system.

But, all of that aside, the core threat to the franchise; the key issue of why any 'government' based on this election is invalid, is that citizens were thwarted in their attempt to vote.

Peace.

"I Declare The Election Invalid: Someone I do not know was prevented from voting"

[jkd]

31. That's Right!

All the precincts must be counted so that any central tabulator manipulation can be discounted. I helped supply Mr. Nader the money to do that very thing. The expense to do that in New Hampshire would be relatively small in order to really settle this issue. Why are we not going forward?

[Eloriel]

36. Boy, I'm sure glad you've finally arrived to tell us wha'ts what

and how to do things. How much did YOU personally contribute to the recount effort?

You might be interested in this thread -- or not:

New Hampshire Recount Update (from Ida)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x97506
Also see: http://www.invisibleida.com/

If you're so damned knowledgeable about exactly what needs to be done and where and how, why don't you PM me. We can put you to work, put your time and energy where your mouth is.

Or not.

[jkd]

47. Do I feel welcome?

I'm just a poor stressed-out postal worker with a family , so the contribution wasn't significant, but it was sincere.

I didn't mean to irritate anyone and I had already read Ida Briggs post. It's just my opinion that the exit poll theory should not be so easily dismissed because 11 precincts in New Hampshire matched the previously reported precinct totals. Without New Hampshire, it would be difficult to believe that the initial exit polls were correct since that state had the greatest discrepancy.

Individually all the precincts could appear OK and still be skewed unless there is a complete accounting matched to the state totals.

I don't have much time in December(lots of over-time and stress), but I would be willing to do what I can. I can't PM you, Eloriel, I don't have enough posts.

[googly]

33. I smelled a Trojan Horse in NH right from the beginning.

I can't believe lots of posters here who bad mouthed Nader
for a long time suddenly believed Nader was on our side?
I guess a sucker is born everyday.

[Eloriel]

37. You need to have your nose checked, then

See my first post in this thread, and this:

New Hampshire Recount Update (from Ida)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x97506
Also see: http://www.invisibleida.com/

[Eloriel]

34. Please see my first post in this thread. I'm tired of this ignorance.

Nader did this at OUR request, "OUR" meaning a bunch of DUers.

I don't care how much people hate Nader -- I'm not overly fond of him myself. But for GOD'S SAKE, PEOPLE, GET THE FACTS STRAIGHT BEFORE YOU RUN OFF YOUR MOUTHS. Get past your hatred of Nader just long enough to be able to SEE the facts.

This is ridiculous.

[SoCalDemGrrl]

35. I don't trust Nader either

[Cocoa]

7. whose credibility does it hurt?

if you approached the recount asserting that it would certainly prove fraud, then yes, the results hurt your credibility, nothing was proven by the recount.

But if you approached it as asking the question, are we sure the original results were valid, then how does it hurt your credibility? You asked the question, you got your answer, what's wrong with making sure, within reason?

[smartvoter]

9. To people like us, I agree. But...

To outsiders who have been looking at this, it will undoubtedly damage our case for fraud. They'll say that we already looked at the place with the greatest exit poll deviation and found nothing.

If you were trying to discredit our effort and make us look like a bunch of loons, wouldn't you do the same?

[righteous1]

14. SV you are one of the most clear thinkers on this forum,

you look at things realistically, not emotionally.

[Peter Frank]

15. I don't think we should concern ourselves...

...with how we're percived in this case. Prove irregularities, and the fraud question will naturally follow in peoples' minds, whether they'll admit it or not.

Besides, we want the midterm election to be as clean as can be.

[smartvoter]

16. That's why it's important to have a counter. If it looks legitimate...

We won't gain enough sentiment to clean it up for future votes, never mind what happens in this one.

[Peter Frank]

18. We already know that irregularities exist.

There is plenty of proof of this. As someone mentioned earlier, what needs to be done is to consolidate the vast amount of evidence into a comprehensive and compelling package.

Getting articulate and outspoken public figures to cary the message would also be of great help.

[smartvoter]

21. No disagreement here.

If we don't win the PR game and build support, we won't affect change.

[Lisabtrucking]

17. Nader should of just stayed out of it.

Nader did all of us a disservice.

[Eloriel]

39. If Nader had stayed out of it,

there would be NOTHING going on right now except a lot of gnashing of teeth around here.

One more time:

A few DUers got Nader to request the recount in NH, esp. IdaBriggs and hedda_foil, but a bunch others who faxed him along with Randi Rhodes listeners who faxed him and together we were all successful -- he submitted his request for a recount within the last ONE MINUTE before the deadline.

That ended up getting Cobb and Badnerik involved, and now they've also (as of this past Monday) also requested recounts in NV and NM.

NONE of this (and more) would have ever, ever taken place without Nader agreeing to ask for a recount in NH.

I don't care how much people dislike, hate or even don't trust him. We all owe him a debt of gratitude -- and then ya'll can go back to disliking/hating/not trusting him. But he served a VERY valuable purpose, and your hatred and ignorance of the facts won't change that.

[Eloriel]

38. Then see this thread

New Hampshire Recount Update (from Ida)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=97506&mesg_id=97506&page=

Ida did a very good job, IMO, of laying out the benefits:

Overall, I think the New Hampshire recount did some good things:

1) helped to create a process and a network to support recount efforts in other states;

2) showed that the issue really is "voting integrity" versus "get Kerry in no matter what" since Kerry won the state;

3) provided a learning opportunity for what to expect in the way of challenges during a recount (including making sure volunteer staff is adequately trained and available);

4) validated the importance of a PAPER TRAIL; and

5) provided an example to the rest of the country of How To Do It Right -- seriously, the New Hampshire Secretary of State people were AMAZING. We can only DREAM about this level of competence and dedication in states like Ohio and Florida.



I would say that unfortunately, DUers aren't very well apprised of the "network" she speaks about in point number one (because the DUers involved simply haven't had the time to come post at DU and keep everyone up to date -- I'm doing what I can from my own limited perspective, but it's obviously inadequate for the task). But the network is awesome, and working very hard behind the scenes working on an incredible array of stuff, including the upcoming NM and NV recount efforts.

[libertypirate]

19. NH is a control group

If you want to prove that one set of results is bad you should know what a paper trail "Clean" result looks like...

If one set of machines with reciepts turns out just fine, and another set of machines with out reciepts turns out not so fine then you have proof that it's not a glitch... People causes are what's left.

[tbuddha]

20. Easy...Kerry won NH

The count was right, Kerry won. The recount showed the importance of having a paper trail.

Personally, I'm still a little skeptical about NH, but for now just play dumb.

[smartvoter]

23. I doubt it will fly. We've been using exit polls to make our case...

a NH was the big deviation. We can play dumb to people calling on us, but we're not in the driver's seat on this thing and need to sway others to our side.

[Eloriel]

40. Exit polls only in NH

Exit polls have nothing to do with Ohio, NM or NV.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. I was afraid of this......

and so many of you thought I was smoking crack.... http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x25564

[smartvoter]

24. Call me crazy, but I have trouble the Nader as a Bush drone angle...

I thought he picked NH because it had the greatest deviation, simple. He wasn't on the ballot in OH or FL to go after the election-turning problems. I know anything is possible, especially in politics, but I don't read anything into what Nader did other than he responded to what we asked him to do.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. Look. I overstated Nader's nefariousness. I apologize

to him and Ida and everyone else who worked on this. I was simply concerned that in the end, NH could hinder this cause, if the results showed nothing wrong.
My money is basically on Florida '04 being the ground zero of fraud, with Ohio a close second. I mean, is Florida's economy REALLY so spectacular that Bush should go up 5 points in the pop. vote? It is there that efforts should be focused.

[smartvoter]

29. I agree on FL. OH too.

[Eloriel]

42. FL will have to wait --

there's no provision in the laws for recounting UNLESS you can show it would overturn the election, which is like having to prove your case before you can get a chance to prove your case.

There may be things we can do in FL, but they'll have to take a backburner to the recount efforts which all have timelines that must be dealt with.

[bunny planet]

27. He was on the ballot in Florida.

[smartvoter]

28. That's right. I forgot it was flipped at the end.

[myschkin]

26. no big surprise

The Republicans were very quiet about this recount - so apparently they had nothing to fear... (either they didn't manipulate or they did it in a way you can't proof on this way)

[smartvoter]

30. It is certainly opposite of how they're behaving in OH.

[chrisclub]

45. Karl Rove sent Nader to NH

First, Karl rigged the exit polls in a state that did not matter to set a red flag, then sent his patsy Nader to head up the recount that would show the exit poll was wrong, not the vote count.

I think this Rove is a lot smarter than we give him credit for.

He attacks an opponents strengths, not their weaknesses.

We thought the 11% difference was our strength... what did Karl do to it?

After the Dem convention, Kerry's medals and swift boat mates were his strengths, so that is what Karl attacked.

I am also sure Karl sent the very believable Bush AWOL memo to Rather... we thought that was our strength.

I think Nader is the most evil person on this planet.
Someone who put Bush in the white houe the first time, and then runs again when the race was even tighter and he knew how high the stakes were.

At least with Bush, we know his plan, but Nader is fooling his blind followers to commit suicide.

[Stahl]

43. "What do we do now?"

While I am a foreigner right winger and don't hold any affiliation with parties in US, I believe you are stronger on this election fraud issue than any of your main advocates, the main media and current government.

To explain, I could never understand why people in US were so willing to take on their government in the seventies, practically endorsing much more brutal dictatorship of Soviets and North Vietnam. But unlike hippie anti-war movement, the ideal of democracy something that is embedded from childhood to every American, even to most conservative right-winger.

If the controversial anti-war movement managed to gain so much support, I don't see how you could ever lose when fighting justly for democracy.

Good luck you all, I hope the revolution doesn't eat it's children.

[johan helge]

46. What about countering this way:

The NH recount does not indicate election fraud. So it indicates that the NH exit poll is perhaps the worst exit poll in history. Such an exit poll must of course be investigated. Part of that investigation should be a total recount in NH, to establish beyond any doubt that the exit poll is the problem.

In other democracies, it is taken for granted that elections should be above suspicion. So people vote with ballots, and the ballots are handcounted. In the US, the election process does not meet this standard, thanks to the Republicans. But one should try to get the next best thing: A complete hand recount of the ballots in e.g. OH and FL, and an investigation of the electronic voting without a paper trail there.

[jfern]

48. Easy

Just point out that Kerry won it, and it was Nader behind the recount.

[mikelewis]

49. NH doesn't hurt our credibility

The NH recount was an audit of Voting Machine Irregularities. The central focus was to find the ghost in the machine. Frankly, I am glad that they didn't find fraud in the voting machines. Ohio is a predominantly punch card ballot state. I do realize that there were many voting machines but to take the state, relying on this would have been folly. I have repeated and been heckled for claiming that the voting machines were not the problem in Ohio. Yes, all anomalies did go to Bush and yes the machines are a nightmare of epic proportions but I have never believed that the voting machines could have stolen this election. They could have had some part but the irregularities would have been so startling that even a child could have seen the blatant disparity in these weighted votes.

Again, I ask you to consider one thing. Consider for a moment that the ballot count was correct. Also consider for a moment that exit polls were correct. If both of these issues are correct, then what factor that was not included in the exit polls could have had a verifiable effect on the ballots.

Do you honestly think the Repubs are capable of corupting all 88 county Board of Education officials and some of thier staff. There are some jerks in this bunch but all of them? I don't buy it. Do you honestly think the people who conducted the exit polls were complete morons and screwed this up so badly that they have just rendered thier own jobs useless?

No, No, No. The race was neck and neck, right down to election day. The voting machines had a lot of scrutiny in these battle ground states. If they were going to rig them, at least in Ohio, this would have been a very difficult endeavor. They would need to have rigged them prior to delivery to the BOE's or the delivery to the individual precincts. You cannot convince me that the voting officials or poll workers would allow someone to tamper with these machines while they were in thier custody. They would not want to go to jail. They may have infected a few in Ohio but if this was enough to swing the vote it would be so noticable that anyone with a cheap calculator could identify the fraud.

No, the answer has to be something else. I believe it is the absentee ballots. I have stated this many times over. We have 0 information on absentee ballots in Ohio. Well, actually, that's not true. Thanks to that computer "glitch" that freaked everyone out, we have Cuyahoga County. In Cuyahoga County, we have a 7% shift in absentee votes in favor of Bush. I live in Cuyahoga and I have talked to a great many people about this issue. I have reports of people getting two absentee ballots mailed to their home. I have reports of "County Officials from the BOE" stopping by to pick up the ballots. I have voter registration information in Cuyahoga Couty that places many of the wards voter registration percentage over 100% of people of voting age. In Cuyahoga County 12% of the people voted absentee. 12%. That's 12% of the vote where 7% more went for Bush. To date, we have no information on the absentee voters in the remaining 87 counties. We have no idea how these people voted. We need to know.

I have been following the Madsen Articles and the issues with vote tabulation machines but I cannot believe that they would have taken a risk of this nature when the majority of the ballots are physical hand countable ballots. These methods wouldn't have stood the scrutiny of a hand recount. I don't think that this risk is justified in Ohio, at least. Maybe in Florida which I know nothing about but not here. There is something else that has happened here. They needed to suppress the votes here in Ohio, why? If the tabulation machies were rigged, why go through the trouble of suppressing the vote? In fact the more people who voted, the better off they were. It wouldn't matter one little bit who the person voted for as long as had the ability to skew the vote in thier favor upon tabulation. But if they padded the vote, they would have to suppress to ensure that the votes for Kerry didn't blow past the vote padding they had already rigged through some other avenue. I believe that avenue was the absentee ballots.

Again, I will admit it if I am wrong but the more I look into Ohio the more convinced I become. They can recount the votes here till the cows come home and the vote isn't going to change much. They're counting a percentage of illegal votes. A dangling chad or two thousand won't affect the outcome. The vote was too close. What needs to be addressed and addressed right now is the effect the absentee votes had on this election. This is the only factor that could have affected the vote and held up in a hand recount.

Sincerely,
Michael Lewis

[smartvoter]

50. Have you devoted a thread to this?

[johan helge]

51. Interesting. You should post it as a thread!

[mikelewis]

52. I have but the focus on DU has been the machines.

I have introduced this many times but the machines have stolen my thunder each time. Maybe now that the NH recount hasn't turned up the evidence you thought you might get, you can take a second look. In Ohio, there has not been one thing that has shifted the possibilty of this election turning out any other way than the way it turned out. The machine irregularities have not matured into a verifiable avenue of fraud. In the counties that these machines were used, there just aren't sufficient anomolies or variations from the other counties to warrant the label of fraud. The only thing that I have found in Ohio that has any way of explaining the vote going to Bush is the Absentee ballots. They would need to have padded roughly 2400 absentee ballots per county to have taken this election and successfully skewed the totals from the exit polls. This is a very doable scenario and offers the highest possibilty of success while limiting the number of persons involved.

This was my original thread. Check it out. The numbers are all there. I was waiting for the vote to be certified and I had access to these totals but I am beginning to wonder if we will ever see these totals. They aren't in any of the historical records for any of the votes in any county. They just simply report the number of absentee votes and not the outcome. With this large of a voting pool in this close of an election, I think we need to see these numbers.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=65226&mesg_id=65226

[mikelewis]

53. If anyone has this data already, could they share?

[rfrrfrrfr]

54. Before you continue with

Your Nader Bashing and wild speculation and blaming Nader for the NH recount

Please read IDabriggs response in the following thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=98589&mesg_id=98712&page=


It has the links I couldn't find to the original Nader count thread as well as a link to the results of the recounts.

Most of you in this thread will need to take your feet out of your mouths before continuing.