Can A Progressive Atheist Defeat the Democrats' "Family" Man in NC?

[rug]

Congressman Heath Shuler is best known for a few things: his NFL career, his challenge of Nancy Pelosi for House Democratic Leadership, and his co-sponsorship of anti-abortion bills. Once lauded as a new breed of Democrat, able to win in a ‘red’ district by running to the right of the party, it now looks as though the conservative evangelical “Blue Dog” Democrat may be on his way out.

If he opts to run for reelection in 2012 Shuler will face a primary challenge for his seat in North Carolina's 11th District from a self-proclaimed progressive Democrat who is probably best known for being an atheist city councilman in a state that still requires government officials to believe in “Almighty God.” And if Shuler can fend off a primary challenge, he may still lose the support of his right flank to a newly-drawn district even more conservative than before.

The incumbent’s primary challenger, Cecil Bothwell, actually prefers the term “nontheist” to “atheist.”

“I know that some atheists feel that stance ducks the issue and that we should force the issue,” he says, “But my ethical/spiritual beliefs ought not to be of any import in holding public office. I'm not in any way running as an ‘atheist.'”

http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/politics/4815/can_a_progressive_atheist_defeat_the_democrats'_%22family%22_man_in_nc

[Fumesucker]

1. The prefix "a" means "not"...

So nontheist and atheist are semantically equivalent.

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. But people don't rail in the pulpits agaisnt nontheists. nt

[struggle4progress]

7. I've never heard a sermon against atheists

[Fumesucker]

8. Neither did I when I went to an Episcopal church..

At the Southern Baptist churches though a sermon vilifying atheists is de rigueur.

And the Southern Baptists are considered moderate at best in my neck of the woods, there are non-denominational churches here that make the SB's look positively ecumenical.

A lot of this sort of thing depends heavily on what part of the country you're in.

[PassingFair]

17. The prefix "A" means "without"

The coining of the word non-theist is good though.

Then you don't even have to get into the old
arguments.

I think I will use this when I have to argue
with people that insist that I am an agnostic,
because they want to like me, and they KNOW
that all atheists are hateful.

[MineralMan]

2. I wish him success.

[dmallind]

3. Good luck Cecil. Koresh knows I'd vote for you, but if you get more than 5% I'd be stunned.

Even if he were not a nonbeliever of whatever label he'd be lucky to break 15. As one? Less than half that - as several consistent surveys tell us.

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. OTOH, he's got something going for him -

Schuler is an ass.

[struggle4progress]

9. Who do you think the Rs will run for the seat?

[RaleighNCDUer]

10. I'm afraid I couldn't guess - I'm a little too partisan to follow the Repubs.

In my world it's 'Republicans, bad; Dems, sometimes not so bad; progressive/liberal Dems good'.

I have yet to see a republican politician who has my best interests at heart, so who they put up is of no interest to me. I just want the best possible Dem or progressive.

[struggle4progress]

12. They plan to take the seat so we need to think about how they'll run

[struggle4progress]

6. Republican troglodyte Charles Taylor held that seat for nine terms from 91 to 07

I consider Bothwell's primary challenge of Shuler a bit of idiocy

Taylor was for years at the top of my personal "NC representatives I want to get rid of" list -- and Shuler got rid of him. Now that Taylor is gone, there are other names high on my "to get rid of" list -- like Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry

I don't doubt that Bothwell is a good guy, whose views and policies I personally would like more than Shuler's, but the first rule in politics is Win! -- because one cannot do anything unless one wins the election

Although the district contains liberal Asheville, the area outside of Asheville is quite conservative, and the 2012 campaign for that house seat will not lean left:

"... if Shuler can fend off a primary challenge, he may still lose the support of his right flank to a newly-drawn district even more conservative than before ..."

[okasha]

11. Bothwell is good on women's and LGBT issues.

If his brand of "progressive" turns out to be at least an approximation of "FDR Democrat" on fiscal issues, he'll likely pick up support in rural areas as well as among urban and other traditionally Democratic groups. This is especially likely to be true if Schuler supports the anti-Medicare/Medicated/SS give-away Obama and the Republicans are putting together.

[cecilbothwell]

13. FDR and rural voters

If you're interested you can check out my position vis-a-vis FDR here:
http://bothwell4congress.wordpress.com/2011/06/29/bold-ideas-employment-for-america/

The message is resonating well in the rural counties here in Western North Carolina where families remember that the WPA and CCC pulled their grandparents out of the Great Depression and where electricity was only a rumor before FDR's TVA electrified the region.

"Free trade" has beggared whole communities here as the factory jobs that sustained them through the latter half of the 20th century have been exported to China.

In addition, my advocacy of ending the war on drugs has traction. People are way ahead of government policy on the drug issue. They see the crystal meth craze as a result of the drug war and understand that more police, more crackdowns, and more prisons are part of the problem not a solution. The recent report to the U.N. advocating an end to the global war on drugs was a boost, as was Jimmy Carter's recent op-ed on the same topic.

This, together with my opposition to the USAPATRIOT Act and DHS has gained support from the substantial libertarian presence in these mountains. I even have some teabag folks who want to volunteer for the campaign. This district isn't the sure bet for Republicans or old-style conservatives that it is often seen to be.

Meanwhile, redistricting is afoot, and the court cases have not yet begun. We may not have new districts before the 2012 election.

[laconicsax]

14. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[laconicsax]

15. Duplicate post n/t

[rug]

16. Good luck and don't cut Social Security!

[progree]

18. Its a gloomy outlook for candidates who don't believe in God.

{1} 61% of those surveyed said they would be less likely to vote for someone who does not believe in God
# http://www.pollingreport.com/politics.htm Accessed 5/29/11
Pew Research Center. May 25-30, 2011. N=1,509 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5.

"Regardless of the specific candidates who are running for president, we'd like to know how you generally feel about some different traits. First, would you be more likely or less likely to support a candidate for president who , or wouldn't this matter to you? . . ."

"Does not believe in God"

5/25-30/11 <-Survey period m/dd-dd/yy
5 61 33 2 <-MoreLikely, LessLikely, WouldntMatter, Unsure

"Is homosexual" (the next most negatively regarded group)

5/25-30/11 <-Survey period m/dd-dd/yy
3 33 62 2 <-MoreLikely, LessLikely, WouldntMatter, Unsure

Just taking the "Less Likely" from the latest poll (5/25-30/11) for each, here is how they rank:

3 black
7 woman
11 Hispanic
25 Mormon
33 Homosexual
46 Had an extra-marital affair in the past
51 Never held elected office
61 Does not believe in God


{2} Atheists come in last (53% say they wouldn't vote for their party's nominee if he was an atheist, even if he was generally well-qualified) - By USA TODAY / GALLUP POLL, added 2/23/07
# http://richarddawkins.net/articles/662-atheists-come-in-last

Reposted from:
http://sadlyno.com/archives/5125.html

"If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be (see below), would you vote for that person?"

Yes No Demographic
=== == ===========
95 4 Catholic
94 5 Black
92 7 Jewish
88 11 A woman
87 12 Hispanic
72 24 Mormon
67 30 Married 3 times
57 42 72 years old*
55 43 Homosexual
45 53 An Atheist

* John McCain was 72 years old at the time

2/9-11/07 www.pollingreport.com


{3} {The University of Minnesota 2006 Study}
Penny Edgell; Joseph Gerteis, and Douglas Hartmann (April 2006). "Atheists As “Other”: Moral Boundaries and Cultural Membership in American Society". American Sociological Review 71 (2): 218.
# http://www.soc.umn.edu/~hartmann/files/atheist%20as%20the%20other.pdf.
3 of many points from this lengthy study:

(1) In a survey of 2,081 adults, 47.6% admitted to a survey taker that they would disapprove of a child marrying an atheist. Asked the same question but about disapproving a child's wish to marry a Muslim, 33.5% said yes. And 27.2% said yes to disapproving a child's wish to marry a black person. In short: "would you disapprove of your child's wish to marry a _____": Atheist 47.6%, Muslims 33.5% (a 1.42 : 1 ratio - meaning for every 100 who would disapprove of child's wish to marry a Muslim, 142 would disapprove of child's wish to marry an atheist). And for every 100 who would disapprove of child's wish to marry a black person, 175 would disapprove of child's wish to marry an atheist.

(2) This Group Does Not At All Agree with My Vision of American Society: Atheist: 39.6%, Muslim: 26.3%, Homosexual: 22.6% ... African American: 4.6% (so for every 100 who said Muslims don't agree with my vision of American society, 151 said Atheists don't agree with my vision of American society).

(3) only 15 percent of respondents agreed that the United States 'would be a better country if religion had less influence'

[quaker bill]

19. and the answer is no.

Once you get out of Asheville, his chances are roughly zero. There is a little fundamentalist Church every few blocks in most places there.