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Edited on Tue Jun-15-10 10:34 PM by fishwax
They might be willing to bite that bullet in order to avoid the huge payouts they'd have to give an expanded Pac 10 and SEC. They may just not want to shell that kind of cash out in the current environment. It also seems reasonable to me that the commitment UT/OU/A&M have made is contingent upon the networks actually coming through with those numbers in the next couple of years. David Boren and Joe Castiglione aren't complete suckers, and neither, presumably, are DeLoss Dodds and William Powers, so presumably they wouldn't sign away all their leverage simply on a promise--if a couple of years from now the networks haven't made those numbers official, this house of cards could threaten to fall apart again.
Also, while it's true that the buyout money is only for two years, it's also immediate. So at OU we'll double our money next year, without (a) having to wait until the Pac 1x got underway in 2012 or (b) having to potentially pay out a huge buyout of our own. (It may have been possible to avoid that if seven teams left, but that would have involved a huge legal battle with the remaining five schools--basically the Big XII charter says that it takes nine votes to dissolve, but the conference is a Delaware Corporation, so a simple majority would have been enough to dissolve the corporation itself. Then the legal battle would ensue, fighting over whether or not the original provision still applied.) Anyway, bottom line is OU goes from getting a solid payout from TV revenue last year to making Big 10 money this year ;).
One other thing that many people might not be aware of--out of the 12 Athletic Directors and 12 University Presidents who were around to be involved in the formation of the Big XII back in the 1990s, there are only three who were still around to be involved in this process--OU President David Boren, OU AD Joe Castiglione (who was AD at Mizzou at the time) and Texas AD Dodds. That's not to say that they wouldn't bolt for a better situation somewhere else, but they have a personal investment in the conference as well.
Also, I've got to say that, while I can see plenty of upside for Oklahoma in this deal, I would've loved to see the Pac 16 thing happen (for a variety of reasons -- football, academic, and otherwise). If the coalition crumbled tomorrow and OU, et al, went west, I'd be pretty psyched :)
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