24 days 'till The Derby, Mike Battaglia's early morning line

[era veteran]

Prep races this weekend, The Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. I think I'll go to the races today.

The Factor 7-2
Dialed In 4-1
Uncle Mo 4-1
Soldat 10-1
Toby's Corner 10-1
Midnight Interlude 12-1
Mucho Macho Man 12-1
Animal Kingdom 15-1
Pants On Fire 15-1
Santiva 20-1
Shackleford 20-1
Comma to the Top 30-1
Jaycito 30-1
Stay Thirsty 30-1
Astrology 50-1
Decisive Moment 50-1
J P's Gusto 50-1
Master of Hounds 50-1
Twice the Appeal 50-1
Watch Me Go 50-1


Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2011/04/13/1706010/battaglia-sets-very-early-morning.html#ixzz1JQ25dBCK

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Zero chance we'll have 3 horses at 4/1 or lower

You'd have to be a nitwit to bet into Battaglia's early line. The heavy majority of those horses will go off at higher odds than he's offering.

The Factor will dictate favoritism this weekend. If he flops then Dialed In inherits the role. I'm not a big fan of Dialed In. Honest but somewhat plodding.

I'd like to make a case for Uncle Mo but he's got two things going against him at a mile and a quarter, the Indian Charlie pedigree which suggests more of a middle distance horse, and Pletcher's dainty training. I've seen some lists which are now throwing him out and placing vastly inferior horses ahead of him. That's annoying since it's lousy handicapping instincts in general, but the mile and a quarter is such a unique variable.

Uncle Mo will be considerably higher than 4/1.

And BTW, it's got to be one of the worst named groups in history. Astrology is virtually the only impressive name of the lot. I have no idea why simple and elegant one word names aren't embraced instead of tortured combos.

[era veteran]

2. Right, but a start

I still like Uncle Mo, but he wasn't ready last time out. Too many easy races?

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Uncle Mo has had two preps and a handful of short workouts

Not my idea of Derby foundation.

I think Pletcher -- now that he has a Derby -- wants a fresh horse for a shot at the Triple Crown, and has overdone it, thinking Uncle Mo could win the Wood on class alone.

Uncle Mo has a win over the Churchill track, like Super Saver last year and Street Sense a few years ago. I'm confident he'll run big from a stalker role but the final furlong might be a problem if there's a stout closer.

BTW, Calvin Borel is on Elite Alex, the son of Afleet Alex who is not on Battaglia's list and goes in the Arkansas Derby this weekend, not a lock to make the Derby field without banking more cash. He's had some troubled starts this year, wide routes. Borel has been transitioning him as a closer after the horse showed speed in his early starts.

Hard to imagine Borel without a Derby mount but that's a possibility if Elite Alex doesn't qualify.

Thanks for the early line. I should have mentioned that in my previous post. Battaglia's line always seems light at the top. In a 20 horse mess no one is looking to take 3/1 or 7/2 but that seldom deters Battaglia from using numbers like that.

[era veteran]

7. Todays H/L Derby Talk

John Clay: Another wide-open Kentucky Derby not what fans want or horse racing needs
By John Clay — [e-mail],JohnClay
Posted: 12:00am on Apr 14, 2011; Modified: 7:05am on Apr 14, 2011


Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2011/04/14/1707148/john-clay-another-wide-open-kentucky.html#ixzz1JUkcD8kq

Santiva named 3-1 favorite for Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland
By Herald-Leader Staff Report
Posted: 12:00am on Apr 14, 2011; Modified: 7:05am on Apr 14, 2011


Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2011/04/14/1706728/santiva-named-3-1-favorite-for.html#ixzz1JUkoYL7L

The Arkansas Derby PP/ line
The field, from the rail out, is Nehro (5-1), Elite Alex (8-1), The Factor (7-5), Brethren (10-1), Sway Away (6-1), Caleb's Posse (10-1), Truman's Commander (30-1), Alternation (10-1), Dance City (15-1), Archarcharch (12-1), J P's Gusto (15-1), J W Blue (30-1) and Saratoga Red (30-1).

Read more: http://www.kentucky.com/2011/04/13/1706858/the-factor-is-7-5-favorite-at.html#ixzz1JUmSx1EZ

[trumad]

3. Needless to say there will be some good money to be made....

[Kingofalldems]

4. Which one is Baffert's horse, if any?

[era veteran]

5. Jaycito, Midnight Interlude, & The Factor

Jaycito, scratched last time out in Santa Anita Derby, injured foot, next up, Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 23rd.

Midnight Interlude won Santa Anita Derby by a head.

The Factor, up this Saturday in the Arkansas Derby.