The curious case of Nick Fairley; do teams "over analyze" the draft?

[Auggie]

Vittorio Tafur, Chronicle Staff Writer / Wednesday, April 27, 2011

In this age of over analysis, this is going to be hard, but let's give it a try: Tune out the NFL draft experts, put away the stopwatch, the scale and the tape measure, and file away all the interviews and the tests. Let's close our eyes - or better yet, pop in the videotape - and remember all the way back to Jan. 10.

Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley turned in one of the dominant performances in recent memory, bullying the Tigers to a 19-11 win over Oregon and the national championship.

Fairley fought through double-teams and had five tackles (three for a loss), a sack and a forced fumble, not to mention a dozen other occasions where he was a play-wrecking menace. He was the surefire, no-doubt-about-it No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Now, zero snaps and three months later, Fairley has apparently fallen out of the top 10. The Associated Press mock draft has him going 30th to the Jets.

SNIP

"The technology and information-gathering age got him," former 49ers, Rams and Cardinals scout Dave Razzano said. "These teams gather so much info that they talk themselves right out of players."

MORE: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/04/27/SPLN1J81A8.DTL

Note: I posted this in another thread but it seemed too relevant to be buried. That post has been updated.

[JonLP24]

1. Interesting article

I must point out that a lot of mock drafts have Marcell Dareus(who is a DT from Alabama) going in the top 4(I've read a lot of mock drafts because the Cardinals have the #5 pick).

but the point the article makes is well made. Interesting they bring up Boldin, I didn't know it was "character issues". I thought it was because he ran 4.7 40(which is slow for a WR) at the combine. Anyways Boldin wasn't even the first WR the Cardinals drafted that year. It was Bryant Johnson in the first round.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. I love disruptive DTs but Fairley was always destined to drop

Only one year, takes plenty of plays off, dirty reputation on the field.

That could have been ignored if he had a wide base. But he's narrow and not particularly strong for a DT. In short, he's a big play specialist who will get turned and look bad on a high percentage of plays.

Best bet, by far, is to go to a top flight team where he can be unleashed as an inside pass rusher.