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What longshot will win ? I work in the am but I may sneak out and bet .

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era veteran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 11:41 AM
Original message
What longshot will win ? I work in the am but I may sneak out and bet .
Edited on Fri May-06-11 12:11 PM by era veteran
I used to have and drive the 6 miles to Keeneland but now we can bet in town at The Red Mile, harness track. I am going to lay twenty on a payoff. Any karmic ideas?


1. Archarcharch - Jockey: Jon Court

The first post position has 12 wins at the Kentucky Derby, tied for the most in history. That bodes well for this horse, which is a contender but far from the favorite. Court has never won a Triple Crown race.


2. Brilliant Speed - Jockey: Joel Rosario

The number two horse has won the Derby nine times. This horse is considered a long shot, and Rosario lacks any Derby wins.

3. Twice The Appeal - Jockey: Calvin Borel

Borel is the hot jockey, winning the Derby three times in the last four years. His experience will be needed, as the three post has just eight wins and this horse is a long shot.

4. Stay Thirsty - Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

The four post has 10 wins at the Kentucky Derby. This Todd Pletcher trained horse is in the middle of the pack in this race, but the post should help.

5. Decisive Moment - Jockey: Kerwin Clark

This post is tied with the first post with 12 wins. That should help a horse that is a long shot and a jockey that is fairly green.

6. Comma To The Top - Jockey: Pat Valenzuela

Valenzuela famously rode Sunday Silence to the Derby title in 1989, but this post position has only produced the Derby champion six times. The horse is a long shot.

7. Pants On Fire - Jockey: Rosie Naprivnik

The chances of Pants On Fire fall in the middle of the pack. The number seven post has produced the winner eight different times.

8. Dialed In - Jockey: Julien Leparoux

This Nick Zito trained horse is one of the early favorites. The post is also successful, producing 10 Derby winners.

9. Derby Kitten - Jockey: Javier Castellano

Castellano rode a Preakness winner in 2006, but he is on a long shot here. The post has only produced four winners in history.

10. Twinspired - Jockey: Mike Smith

This horse is another long shot, but the post position has seen some success. 10 different winners have emerged from this position.

11. Master Of Hounds - Jockey: Garrett Gomez

This position has only produced three winners in Kentucky Derby history. Gomez is a seasoned jockey, but has never won a Triple Crown race. This is probably not the horse to do it for him.

12. Santiva - Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan

This is another long shot horse, and it isn't helped by the post position. Only three winners have come out of the number 12 post.

13. Mucho Macho Man - Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

This horse is considered a contender, but only four horses have won from this post position.

14. Shackleford - Jockey: Jose Castanon

This is another horse that has what it takes to win. It will have to work extra hard, because this post has only produced the Kentucky Derby winner on two occasions.

15. Midnight Interlude - Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Espinoza won the 2002 Derby aboard War Emblem, and this is one of the better horses in the field. The 15 post has only produced three Derby winners.

16. Animal Kingdom - Jockey: Robby Albarado

This is a horse with little chance to win, and the post won't help. The 16 horse has only won the Derby three times.

17. Soldat - Jockey: Alan Garcia

Garcia won the Belmont Stakes in 2008, and he is aboard a pretty good horse here. However, this post has never produced a Derby winner.

*18. Uncle Mo - Jockey: John Valezquez

It was announced on May 6 that Uncle Mo will not run.

19. Nehro - Jockey: Corey Nakatini

This is another strong horse with a good jockey. However, the 19 position has never produced a Derby winner. With so many good horses in the area, it could be extra tough for Nehro.

20. Watch Me Go - Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

edited to fix PP/ Mods I know this is long but it is the Derby, thanks, R
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TZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 11:48 AM
Response to Original message
1. You don't have him listed but I would bet on Calvin Borel's ride
Twice the Appeal. He's what 20-1, 30-1? The guy OWNS this race right now.
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era veteran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Could be, I am glad Calvin got a mount
I think early line is 20-1 .
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JonLP24 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 11:53 AM
Response to Original message
2. The horse wearing green
If more than one go with the darkest shade.
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trumad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
4. This race is perfect for Dialed In.
He will roll by the field in the last furlong and 1/2.

I expect him to roll out of the 8 post and find a cozy spot on the outside.
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Earth Bound Misfit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 08:11 PM
Response to Original message
5. This is a DREADFUL field.
Pick some #'s from a hat, play a few exotics and hope for a telephone # like payoff.
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Condem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-11 09:59 PM
Response to Original message
6. As we get ready for the Darby tomorrow, I leave you with this...
...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdDwm3QIwfg Brings a fookin' tear to me eye, I tell ya.
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era veteran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-11 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. I'll look later, on my way to The Red Mile
I'm going to put $20 across the board on the 3 horse. Do it again Calvin.
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RockaFowler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-11 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Love that song
I was just singing it this morning!!

:)
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era veteran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-11 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. I just cross-posted that for my hippie-employee-friends
on the facebook. Condem you are a sentimental guy. Got my bet in on #3. 84 miles away in Lexington the sun is trying to return. Looks like it prettied up in Louisville.
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Condem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-11 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
9. Okay. I'm hopping on the Archarcharch bandwagon.
Hug the rail, baby.
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