BOXING : Place Your Bets!!!

[H2O Man]

On Saturday, December 3rd, Middleweight Champion Jermain Taylor defends his title in an eagerly awaited rematch with former champion Bernard Hopkins. Taylor won a split decision on July 16, that has created a surprising amount of controversy in the sport. The Ring magazine, which is becoming widely recognized as the most reliable source for naming who is champion (in an effort to clear confusion created by nonsense alphabet groups), has publicly stated they refused to honor Hopkin's request that they not recognize Taylor.

In the first bout, the younger and slightly bigger Taylor is generally recognized as having won most of the first 7 or 8 rounds. Hopkins came on strong in the final four rounds. He was convinced he had won the fight, in a manner that reminded many of Marvin Haglar after the classic match with Ray Leonard. Two of the three judges voted for Tayloy, however, and because one gave Jermain the 12th round, many dispute the decision.

Hopkins enters the ring at 6'2", with a reach of 75", at the age of 40 years and 11 months. Taylor is an inch shorter, has a 78" reach, and is 13 years younger.

Hopkins has a history of being devastating in "return bouts." He is not putting on an act when he appears to take this as a grudge match. However, he has always done his best fighting smaller men; he is getting older; and he has shown signs of recognizing he needs to pace himself over 12 rounds far more than he did in years gone by.

Taylor is an interesting study. He still seems somewhat in awe of Hopkins. He continues to express shock that Bernard made use of "dirty tactics." Hopkins butted Taylor numerous times, and opened a deep gash on the top of Jermain's head, which seemed to sap some of his strength. (Injuries do that.)

In my opinion, Hopkins might be a slight favorite. He has his work cut out for him, though. I think he needs to fight at a good pace for at least two minutes of every round. That includes going to the body, early and often. He is one of the best body-punchers of this era, and going to the body usually wins longer fights.

It also leaves him a little more exposed to Taylor's strengths, specifically fast, hard combinations followed by his foot movement, which puts him out of his opponent's reach. Hopkins has referred to Taylor as "the bull" against his "matador," but Jermain is hardly a plodding, straight-forward type of fighter. He has the tools to make Bernard miss, and to counter with hard shots.

Let's hope for a good fight, with a clear outcome. Let the better man win.

[minkyboodle]

1. Rooting for X

I'm certainly excited about this fight. Its a pick em fight if there ever was one. I'm a big X fan although I like the kid a whole lot as a person and fighter, he could be great for the sport of boxing. First I thought Hops won the first fight and much more clearly than a lot of people (although press row scores pretty much jibe with my view 116-112, 115-113 for hops being like 90 percent of the ringside press scores). I just don't think JT's aggression was effective and he never really landed a meaningful blow on Hops aside from the glancing blow to the top of the head in round 2. Now Hops wasn't doing much but he was making Jermain miss and controlling the pace of the fight. Anyway, its a new fight tomorrow.
I'm rooting for Hops but I'm nervous. I think it will be really tough for Hopkins to get a decision in this fight given his rep in the sport as a maverick and his slower output in his old age. I see this fight in going one of two ways either Hops comes out and surprises people with his output and wears Taylor down for a clear decision or a late stoppage, or its a repeat of the last fight with Taylor being a little more calm and smart and JT winning another close decision (this much more legit IMO).
H20 Man you make some good points especially about the body punching. That part of Hops game seemed strangely absent from the first match, he'll need it tomorrow if he is going to win. About JT's ability to make bernard miss, I guess I'll believe it when I see it. I certainly didn't see it much in the first fight and I have a hard time believing he will make that many changes in between this first fight and this one. I see JT main strengths as the obvious ones speed, strength and possibly stamina (we'll see on this one). Either way its a pickem and I wouldn't put money on it. A good fight would do wonders for the sport as would a clear cut Taylor win but I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't really hoping for the old man to play spoiler one more time.
Scott
Also if Hops looses I really hope people don't start trashing his legacy he has been past prime since the Joppy fight. If anyone wants to see the real X watch any fight between the Glen Johnson fight and the Tito fight IMO that fighter is one of the top 5-7 middleweights of all time.

[H2O Man]

2. Bernard has proved

that he belongs in the elite group of middleweight champions. He would have given any of the small group of elites a tough match. To say he would have beat one, or lost to another, is speculation .... but it is a lot of fun!

Taylor doesn't rank in that group yet. He has the tools to eventually reach the status of great, and if he can reach that level and stay there, he can perhaps enter the elite.

It's funny: I know a fairly wide circle of boxing people, including fans. And I don't know any that don't have great respect for him, and that didn't want to watch the man fight. So I think there was a organized effort on the part of promoters to keep him marginalized. And that is the only reason, in my opinion, that he wsn't appreciated beyond boxing. The casual boxing fan, or the general sports fan, really didn't understand what it means to be the best middleweight for about 10 years.

Hopkin's selection of punches needs to change. Now, I haven't watched my tape of the fight in a while, but I thought both guys threw a lot of right hands: Jermain after landing a good one early; Bernard after realizing he could land it at a distance. But I think that when Bernard was in close in the last 1/3rd of the fight, he went far too often to the head. He landed a lot of Taylor's arms. I think that Bernard would have been far more likely to hurt Taylor by going to the body. (I realize that I am at risk of being obnoxious for being focused on the body punching, but I'll bet Bernard realizes it will be his ticket to victory.)

Finally, Hopkins has done such a thorough job of complaining about the scoring (and I know he is sincere in thinking he won), that most judges will on some level tend to give him the benefit of the doubt. Mentally, Hopkins sounds better prepared than Taylor, who has fallen for the old master's mental games.

[minkyboodle]

3. to those in front of the tv now

The live weigh in is coming up at 5:30 EST on ESPNNEWS channel. I think Hops has the kid acting a bit out of character with all the antics (babies crying etc). JT is doing a great great job of promoting the fight and but I can't help feeling mentally hopkins has him acting a bit out of character. Whether it matters or not is another thing.

[H2O Man]

8. Why it matters ....

In any sport, one does not want their athlete reacting to his/her opponent. One wants them to respond. The difference may seem subtle, but it means your athlete does not allow the other to dictate their actions in a way that is predictable or foolish.

When I watched Taylor do the routine with the doll, diaper, and bottle, I noted a look of great satisfaction on Bernard's part. The thing that has me concerned is the young champion's saying, "He can't hurt me .... he can't knock me out."

Boxing is a strange sport. If you challenge a guy to take his best shot in basketball, he might score 2 or 3 points, and if you are foolish, he might go to the line. Do it in boxing, and you may get hurt.

Physically, I think Taylor has the advantages. But mentally, Hopkins has played his cards very well.

[minkyboodle]

12. he has gotten to Taylor mentally for sure

Hops is the master of the mental game. Throwing down the Puerto Rico flag in the Trinidad promotion is the ultimate example (I'm not defending its merit as a personal act but as an act of psychological warfare it was one of the most powerful I've seen since Ali's day). Really the more I think about this fight it all comes down to whether X's body can do what he wants it to. I'm convinced he is going to try to be more like warring, inside body fighter he was in the late 90s and early 2000s. The only question for me is whether his 40 3/4 year old body can deliver on his plan, it is going to be tough against the young strong Taylor.
Also in all these promotional events I can't help thinking that the kid is trying to convince himself more than anyone else with all the talking and routines. Its great for promotion but I'm still not sure if its good for JT. Fight night tonight I'm excited. HBO needs this fight to deliver to save them from a poor year in which Showtime has consistently delivered better fights for free.
Scott

[H2O Man]

14. This is where I believe

Taylor's people are allowing an error to be made. And I am aware that there is some bad blood between one of the guys and Hopkins.

Allowing Jermain to try to match Bernard in this business about as smart as letting Joe Frazier sit next to Ali on WWS a week before their return match at the Garden. You don't do it.

Jermain keeps trying to "explain" things, and it doesn't work. I really have to hand it to Bernard, and when I look at his expression, I know that he knows exactly what -- and why -- he is doing this.

If Taylor had been told "just stay quite," and got in Bernard's personal space for eye contact, it would have been perfect for him. Make Bernard talk. But it's too late for that. Bernard did his thing. I have to say there is still some "jail" in Mr. Hopkins.

[minkyboodle]

16. LOL

here is a pic that pretty much describes what I believe is the true demeanor of the fighters in the pre fight mental game...

[H2O Man]

17. Yep.

Bernard's gotten into Jermain's head. I loved Ali, and think he had a gift unmatched by any other athlete in playing mind games. But for the vast majority of boxers, I favor silence with direct eye contact.

[Lefty48197]

4. Hmmm... wonder who John Kerry is rooting for?

[dr.zoidberg]

5. This will be a good fight.

In a year that HBO has put on questionable PPVs, namely Marco Antonio Barrera vs. Robbie Peden, and free TV cards, such as Floyd Maywether vs. Sharmba Mitchell, it's great to see HBO put together a good fight.

As we all know, the first fight ended in controversy, although I think that Hopkins hurt himself by starting out too slow. Now, in the last fight I had Hopkins just barely pulling out the victory. In this fight I see Hopkins deciding to start faster than he did in the first fight. I also feel that hopkins wants to leave the fighting side of the sport too much to lose tomorrow night. Hopkins also has an enormous chip on his shoulder following the controversial loss. Therefore, I see Hopkins beating Taylor by UD12.

[H2O Man]

9. Interesting.

I think both men have a chip on their shoulder. Both had a large one before they even signed a contract to meet for the first time. But they do it in very different ways.

Bernard has prefered to be the "outsider" in boxing. It has cost him in popularity, largely because he doesn't get promoted as a "product" the way other athletes are. His new-found friend and promoter Oscar, while certainly a fantastic fighter, was a packaged image. Not Bernard. It is one of the things I respect the most about him.

What I find interesting is that a lot of casual fans are not aware of his bacxkground, of his being a convict. Yet it was that experience that taught him to "trust no one." It was that experience that made him so focused, with such an intensity.

Taylor is becoming a packaged image, and he does not find it comfortable. He is a young man, and hasn't got the life experiences that help him put it in proper perspective. Many athletes never do. So we have this young champion who finds the larger public audience does not recognize him or his victory -- instead, they have created an image of who they want him to be, and believe that the only controversial round was that 12th -- as if the cards agreed on all those rounds Jermain definitely won.

I think this may be as much of a grudge match as boxing has seen since Griffith-Parret.

Looks like a heck of an undercard, too!

[MrSlayer]

6. I like B-Hop to knock this guy out.

After he got robbed in the last fight he's going to want to make statement. And that statement will be Taylor twitching on the canvas in the 6th.

[H2O Man]

10. I had a good group

of guys over for the first match. People were pretty evenly split going in, on who they thought would win. No one thought Hopkins won. I think everyone was surprised that he waited so long to get started. Even if he was to start slow, he should have been going to the body.

If Haglar had fought a re-match with Leonard, I suspect he would have gone to the body a heck of a more. If he had, I think Ray would have ended up where John "The Beast" Mugabe did -- on that canvas .... "twitching" (love your description!).

In order to win, Bernard has to lift those ribs with his little inside uppercuts. I know his last punch against Oscar landed flush; oh, it was a thng of beauty! I had a guy in my living room ask, "How could THAT hurt?" He had never boxed, of course. But lifting just beneath those ribs is money in the bank.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I expect Taylor to win

Basic handicapping -- slightly bigger and much younger talented guy who won the first time so why not again? His confidence level should soar in the ring. Hopkins finally knows defeat for the first time since the Roy Jones fight a dozen years ago. At a younger age or maybe against a lesser fighter I'd pick him to rebound but not in this scenario. The cheap tactics in the first fight bolstered my belief Hopkins knows he's at the end of the line and has to deviate from standard style. If Hopkins wins, I think it will have to be by KO, which is certainly possible. At this age I don't see him winning tons of rounds via high activity.

[H2O Man]

11. I'd like Taylor

to win, in the sense it would be better for the sport in the long term. I also think that the physical advantages go to Taylor in every significant way. My normal brother used to hang out in the Kronk gyms, and he always said that for a long race, you bet on the horse with the bigger chest, and that the same thing applied in boxing. If one goes by the Manny Stewart line of thinking (though I haven't heard his thoughts on this fight, and am not trying to claim he said this), Taylor has all of the physical advantages except the inch of heighth.

I am surprised that Jermain was so rattled by Bernard's very dirty tactics. He should have been fully prepared. Ricky Hatton showed the best way to put that cheap shit in check if the ref won't do his job.

[minkyboodle]

13. about size

Hopkins looks a little bigger in the arms and chest than in his last few fights at the weigh in. Whether this makes a difference I don't know. JT looked huge as usual. Its amazing to me that both these guys are 160 lb fighters, they are both big middleweights.

[H2O Man]

15. You're right.

Now that you say it, I have to agree. Bernard has gotten bigger like some guys do after age 30 or so. The larger chest and arms actually make his waist appear more wasp-like.

One advantage he has over other older fighters is that he has taken very little punishment over the years. Two of my favorite qualities: defensive skills and body punching!

If Bernard wins, few outside the sport will understand what it really means. Either way, I expect Taylor to be able to harness his skills, and become one of the best fighters for the rest of the decade. That said, it seems odd to even be talking about a 40+ year old man fighting him!



(Rubin was a small middleweight, weight-wise, but looks big!)

[H2O Man]

18. Taylor wins!

All three judges had it 7-5 for the champion. I had it 7-4-1. Bernard is getting old, and I do not think the past two fights take away from a wonderful career.

[minkyboodle]

19. yep

I think its extraordinary Hops did as well as he did. I was hoping for a miracle return of the old executioner obviously those days are long gone. Still I thought X deserved the first one 7-5 this one I scored a draw but I could see it going either way those first 6 rounds were a judges nightmare. Taylor impressed me in the 11th but Hops came back and put a hurting on him again in the last round. He just doesn't have the legs and stamina he had even 3 years ago. 1 month shy of 41 years old is impressive for a non-heavy fighter I doubt we will see his like again. Taylor still has a lot to prove to me but I will be rooting for him as he is a talented kid and a great person. He can do well if he continues to learn and improve (I thought he definitely tightened some things up in between the two fights). Today I'm a bit bummed about the end of X's run.
Scott

[H2O Man]

20. I hope he rethinks

the idea about fighting Roy again. He has nothing to prove. He has money, has never been really beaten up, and has earned his place with the great fighters from all weight classes.

Taylor will have a rough go of it against Winky Wright.

[minkyboodle]

21. I agree

I'd like to see Hops walk away..... sadly I don't think he will the Taylor fights will only feed his paranoia and he may try for one more grab at the spotlight.... I just don't think he has the tools (his legs and stamina are totally gone and his punching power is a shell of its former stature.... he is still one of the most skilled and smartest fighters around though but thats about it).

[H2O Man]

22. The definition of being old

in the ring is when you can see an opening, but not get a punch off, and when you can see one coming, but not get out of the way. Bernard has his that point.