Time for some playoff picks!

[rep the dems]

Big week, my friends. For some, the dream to be the best will live on, and for others it will end this week. Ok, enough of that. Picks to win in CAPS.

Colts vs RAVENS-Ravens stellar defense will make the difference

EAGLES vs Saints-Yeah, the Eagles are my favorite team, but nobody can deny the great confidence and ability they have played with in recent weeks

Seahawks vs BEARS-Bears defense will keep the Seahawks in check, Hawks just aren't the same team they were last year.

PATRIOTS vs Chargers-Should be a great game, but it's awfully tough to bet against Tom Brady and the Pats in the playoffs, no matter who they're playing.

[Awsi Dooger]

1. I'll stick with my yards per pass attempt differential

It's been incredibly reliable over the years in the playoffs and I fare much better with it than I ever could subjectively. Now 9-1 straight up and against the number last season and this year. Last week the three advantages I mentioned of at least a half yard over the opponent went 2-1 straight up and against the spread. Dallas covered the +3 but was the straight up loser although obviously that shoulda coulda have gone the other way. Much more importantly, the YPPA differential teams were 3-0 versus the spread at halftime. I still have no idea why anyone counts the second half. It's a pure circus and besides, my systems work much better in the first half.

This week the numbers are scary since they buck the Ravens and Patriots. Indy and San Diego have huge edges in YPPA differential, more than 1 yard for the Colts and slightly more than .6 in favor of the Chargers. The Bears are a play, at about .7 better than the Seahawks. New Orleans and Philadelphia are very close to even, but potentially misleading since the Eagle numbers are significantly boosted by McNabb's great YPPA before he was hurt. If you identify the Eagles using Garcia's numbers only, then New Orleans is more than a half yard superior. That's always a tricky aspect in the playoffs, when the QB who is playing is not the one responsonsible for the bulk of the regular season stats.

[Redbear]

2. I think it will be directly the opposite.

Colts D will shut down McNair Only TD comes on a hook and lateral (Clark/Wayne) Colts 10 Ravens 6
Garcia plays well but 0 TDs (5 RZ trips = 5 FGs) Brees will throw 2 TDs (Colston/Bush) Saints 17 Eagles 15
Bears D scores 2 TDS Seahawks D scores 2 plus a safety Combined total offense 22 yds Seahawks 16 Bears 14
Brady has five TDs but then a hotly disputed fumble in OT Chargers 37 Patriots 35 (OT)

[rep the dems]

4. So the Chargers will get a safety in overtime? I don't know about that.

Interesting that we have completely different picks though.

[Redbear]

6. Tom is due a bizarre ending that goes against him. In more detail:

Patriots win the toss (Heads).

The kickoff bounces at the five near the sideline and Chad Morton expects it to go out of bounds, but the ball takes a crazy hop into his arms and he is buried at the 6 yard line.

Dillon is stuffed twice for no gain.

On 3rd and 10, Brady drops back near the goal line. He spots what he thinks is an open Reche Caldwell, but ...

just as he is about to fire, Donnie Edwards raises his arms and blocks his vision.

At almost the same time, Shawne Merriman breaks loose and hits Brady and the football goes flying.

Several players dive for the ball but it slides away from all of them. Matt Light runs over and scoops it up. Realizing he is in the end zone, he runs out and pitches it to Jabar Gaffney.

Gaffney runs 98 yards for the apparent game-winning touchdown.

However, the replay shows that part of Light's foot was touching the sideline when he picked up the loose ball.

The ref awards a safety and the Chargers win 37-35.

Patriot fans are incensed claiming:

1. Brady's arm was actually going forward and it was thus an incomplete pass.
2. Merriman hit Brady in the head thus Roughing the Passer should have been called.

[rep the dems]

7. I'm gonna hold you to that!

:rofl:

[Broken_Hero]

3. For me....

Here are my picks, this is whom, I want to win...

NE vs. SD-NE by 10

Balt vs. Indy-Balt by 7

Sea vs Chicago-Sea by 3

Eagles vs. NO-NO by 14


Now, if I had money bet....

NE over SD by 7 points

Indy over Balt by 10...

Chicago over Sea by 14 points

NO over Eagles by 14 points....

Just a slight difference, in each category....:D

[BOSSHOG]

5. A little from the head, mostly from the heart

Three great games and one dud in Chicago this weekend:

- SEAHAWKS over Bears cause the NFC championship game has to be in NOLA this year. Please Bears leave Rex in the whole game.
- COLTS will score more then the Ravens
- CHARGERS offense will shine v the Pats
- And in the game of the weekend, a rockem-sockem knock down in the dome, the SAINTS will squeak past the Eagles late in the game despite incredible performances by Garcia and Westbrook ensuring another week of drunken debauchery in the Big Easy and astronomical sales of Bush, Brees and Coulston Jerseys.

[regularguy]

8. Getting psyched!

Bolts in a squeaker. Fans leave early due to revulsion with Bellichek's sweatshirt.

Bears in a laugher. Seahawks get reminded that Christmas doesn't come every week. I'll be pulling for Seattle though.

I'm so biased that I'd pick the Eagles if they were in wheelchairs. I'll be pulling for the Saints next week if something bad happens.

Could this be the year that offense finally trumps defense in the playoffs? No. I'm going to start feeling bad for Manning soon.

[MrSlayer]

9. Here's what I think.

Eagles win in a dogfight 34-28.

Ravens shut down Manning and beat the Colts 17-10.

Bears beat the Seahawks in an ugly game 9-3.

Chargers over Patriots 22-20. Hard to go against Brady but the Chargers have the better team.

Dawk is a killer.

[rep the dems]

11. Loved that tackle. Dawkins is the man.

Chargers Pats was the toughest for me to pick, I expect it will be very close.

[Scurrilous]

10. I'll take...

...the Ravens, the Eagles, the Seahawks, and the Chargers.

Three birds and the bolts. :thumbsup:

[Scurrilous]

14. 0 for 4...

...didn't get one correct. :thumbsup:

[rep the dems]

12. 0 for 1.

That was possibly the worst playoff game I've ever seen.

[rep the dems]

13. Sigh.

I don't even know what to say :cry:

[Awsi Dooger]

15. I'm taking New Orleans and Indianapolis in the first half next week

They fit the YPPA edge of at least a half yard. My yards per pass attempt system remains perfect in the first half, 6-0 in the playoffs this year against the spread. I have no idea why my teams roar in the first half then snore after intermission, but it's an ongoing theme in football and basketball, for years. A few of my friends thrill to wager on my teams in the first half, then go the other way at halftime. That would have equated to 4-0 today. But I'm comfy to relax in the second half and focus on the game.

[Phredicles]

16. *sigh* I went into today just hoping my 'Hawks wouldn't embarrass

themselves, that they'd at least score. So if now I'm pissed that they didn't win because they absolutely had a chance, I guess that's a step forward of sorts, isn't it?

I pin this on our depleted secondary, Hasselbeck (bobbling the snap on 4th and 1), and Holmgren (calling a lot of slow-developing plays in 3rd and short situations) in inverse order. I feel a little more optimistic about next year, though, especially since the Holmgren-era 'Hawks do better in odd-numbered seasons (The opposite of Star Trek movies, at least until Nemesis at #10 came and sucked nard).

As for next week, Go Saints and Go Colts.

[trotsky]

19. Holmgren's playcalling, esp. in the 4th, was horrible. Cost them the game.

Alexander had clearly hit his stride. 10, 11 yards a pop? FEED HIM THE BALL! Going for it on 4th and 1 with him was the right call, but the combination of your observations (Hasselbeck bobble, too long to develop) stopped them. Probably could have run down the clock and won the game if they had converted there. Then in OT on 3rd and 2, you call a pass OTHER than a quick slant or curl? I would have run Alexander, or use him as a decoy and run the FB. Screwy. I am not a Seahawks fan, but they had every right to win that game. Was rooting for them since I can't stand the Bares.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Four competitive games is a condemnation of the league

That won't be a popular opinion but there is no way all four games shoud be in the balance in the final two minutes in this round. You damn near had all four road teams win, which would have been an absolute disgrace.

The divisional playoff round naturally promotes blowouts by the home team. As a gambler I've feasted on that reality for 15+ years. Rested excellent teams feasting on garbage at home, and garbage that has just survived a wild card struggle a week earlier. I can remember scores like 62-7 and 41-6 in this round.

So this year you have four tight games. That screams the top four seeds were flawed as hell. In three of the four games, excepting NO/Philly, it's easy to assess the road QB was superior. That's certainly part of it. But when I looked at the overall statistics of the playoff teams two weeks ago it was blatantly obvious this crop of playoff teams was significantly below average. I mentioned that in a thread on this forum, that in other years I'd seen 4-5 teams with better numbers that anything from 2006.

Where are the dominant teams? The last one I can remember was Tampa Bay in 2002, a team that allowed just 5.46 yards per pass attempt for the year and a surreal 4.71 in road games. That led to a home destruction of San Francisco in the first playoff game, decisive win on the road at Philadelphia in the NFC title game, and ambush of Oakland in the Super Bowl. I'd appreciate the NFL a hell of a lot more if you had a team like that on an annual basis.

[Phredicles]

18. A condemnation? No, I can't imagine it would be a popular opinion;

I remember the 62-7 game (Jags-Dolphins '99) too; the 41-6 one rings less of a bell but sounds like it should have involved Detroit somehow. My point is, this batch of games were a lot more fun to watch (Unless that was Detroit beating the snot out of Dallas - that rocked). If this is a condemnation I can only say, Best Flaw Ever!