War Pass Injured; Out of Kentucky Derby

[Venceremos]

Churchill Downs press release (April 19, 2008):

Robert LaPenta’s War Pass, the champion 2-year-old of 2007 and winner of the $2 million Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) at Monmouth Park, has suffered a leg injury that has knocked the colt out of the $2 million guaranteed Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (GI).

Read more at http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/news/2008/04/19/champion-war-pass-injured-out-kentucky-derby-134

[two gun sid]

1. We'll never see him race again...

he's worth too much money to risk getting him beat again.

[Justpat]

2. I told you he was moving terrible in the Wood.

I'm not surprised and I agree with you that he will be retired.

[two gun sid]

3. Yes you did! I thought of you as soon as I heard he was hurt...

How's The 'House? Did he come out of the race in good shape? I missed it 'cause I was hauling a mare to the breeding farm but, I know he finished in the money. DRF didn't have the chart up yet.

[Justpat]

4. He was third. The winner won by seven

and went 7/8 in 1:22.2. Yikes.


And he looked good afterward. His brother broke his maiden on Mother's Day. Maybe Talkhouse
will have to do the same.

[two gun sid]

5. I've had 2 foals born on Mother's Day...

out of the same mare. Both of them were nice big monsters.

That's a pretty quick race for MSW isn't it?

[Justpat]

7. That is about the fastest maiden race you can run. n/t

[aaronbees]

11. I think you're right

What a lousy ending for a nice, briefly brilliant horse's racing career.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. From a strictly selfish aspect, I'm disappointed by this

I can't figure out the Derby at the front end. But with War Pass included, the matchup (one horse to beat another) possibilities were incredibly intriguing. That's where I planned to focus.

A frontrunner who is in bad form, and may not suit the distance to begin with, is susceptible to sadly back up in the stretch, to such extent the oddsmakers basically can't account for how dramatic it will be. We're talking dozens of lengths. Plus, the jockeys tend to ease horses in a situation like that. Virtually any competent horse was a good investment to finish ahead of War Pass.

Oh well.

[Justpat]

8. Who else likes to be on the front end besides Big Brown?

After today I'll do some serious studying of the PP's.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Whoops, I didn't write that very well

I meant front end in terms of winning the race, not the pacesetters. :)

I'm having trouble deciphering this race so I wanted a cheap bailout by identifying War Pass as likely to flop. The matchups are interesting in that regard because they don't necessarily pit frontrunners against frontrunners, etc.

I'm not sure who will contest the pace. Off the top of my head, Bob Black Jack, if he runs, and Recapturetheglory like to run on the front end. Gayego prefers to stalk but he might get caught too close.

Artax, that's the name of my damn nemesis horse from Derby matchups past. The racebook manager at MGM got cute and put Artax, at about 10/1, up against a 30/1 shot in the matchup, plus he made the 30/1 shot the favorite. My friends and I jumped all over it, on pure value, but Artax stuck it to us, wide and dull. A year later Artax was one of the principals in the undercard on Preakness day, when the troubled Asian man jumped the fence and threw punches at the horses in mid stretch. Now that's something I could post on YouTube, if it's not already there.

[Justpat]

10. I've been in the business since '69

and I still don't know the handicapping lingo. I placed five bets in all those years.

I remain one of the worst handicappers that ever lived. :cry:

Maybe I should buy Jerry Bailey's handicapping CD.


I don't know what to think about that Bob Black Jack. He must be tough as nails.
He went in 1:06.3 on the polytrack in SA, then lasted almost to the wire going
1 1/8. If he liked the dirt, I'd have to put something on him. He has some
quality to him. After the six and change, I thought we wouldn't see him again
for six months.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Tough racket

I'm sure I wouldn't bet if I were involved in the business.

Too many variables in racing. That's why I prefer the head to head matchups, which are similar to what I'm used to, one team vs. another. Mid '90s to maybe '01 I did very well at those matchups in the Classics and Breeders Cup, but recently they have become more scarce. The sportsbooks used to deal them, independent of the handle and the take, but once the tracks got word of it they wanted a cut, same as the parimutuel aspect. That caused most sportsbooks to eliminate the matchup wagers. And the ones who maintain them are sharp, putting them up late in the week after the post position draw, and when the odds are more settled. In the old days the books would sloppily throw them out early in the week and there could be severe advantage.

[Justpat]

13. When one of our horses is primed and ready to put in a good effort,

I can figure out how they'll finish in any given race, but daily handicapping is past
my capabilities.

Plus, it is not good for owners to see their trainer going to the window before
the race and betting with both hands. Bad for business.

You are a great writer. I read some of your other posts.

:thumbsup:


If you don't come to say hello at the spa this year.... :spank:

[Awsi Dooger]

14. If I make it to the Spa I'll definitely say hello

More variables in that regard this year. I'm just not sure.

Daily handicapping is beyond almost anyone's capability. I gave up at Santa Anita in spring '84, literally trashing the home made track variants. In 20+ years in Las Vegas I've never seen a race bettor excluded for being too successful, unlike sports. In the late '80s I frequently sat next to a couple of friends at the Stardust, who were trying to handicap the full cards, and it served to confirm my experience. Too much time expenditure for too little opportunity.

The only aspect the books were afraid of is something called a House Quinella (House Q), a home made wager in which the payoff was based on the win and place prices. With two standout horses in a race you had a decided edge and many sharp guys took advantage of it. The payoff was beyond the what the parimutuel price would have been. I got sick of friends asking me to sneak them in for high dollar amounts. That worked maybe one time then the racebook managers started eyeballing you, eventually turning you away. They finally got rid of those things.

Believe it or not, dog racing handicappers have been excluded from Las Vegas sportsbooks right and left. It's the most impressive group of gamblers I've ever seen in this town. By far. Incredible specialization. I used to sit next to them at the Imperial Palace, late '90s, and be in awe. They knew the tendencies of every dog, how it would break and therefore how the race would evolve. That produced longshots galore, when they knew the chalk would be wiped out on the first turn and a garden path opened for others. The sportsbooks tried everything with those guys. First they limited them to W-P-S only, not allowing the exotics. Then they slashed the max they would accept from them. Finally they booted the guys, forcing them to relocate, but word would spread and finally almost every racebook dropped dog racing completely.


Thanks for the compliment on my other posts. I'm not sure it's majority opinion right now.:)

[trumad]

15. Good story about the dogs...

The "oops" can kill ya for sure.