Ky Derby Trail: Questions and Quandaries

[two gun sid]

From The Blood Horse:
Another Kentucky Derby is upon us, and most of the talk has been about the inconsistencies and slow speed figures of this year’s crop of 3-year-olds. Before we get into all the observations and analyses, and attempt to figure out this daffy Derby there is one point that must be addressed first.

There have been discussions recently in several places about the undeserving horses that get into the Derby, mainly because of graded earnings accumulated in 2-year-old stakes and lesser graded races with enormous purses. While we are in full agreement with that, there is a misconception that the Kentucky Derby of today is inferior to the ones years ago. The truth is the Derby is much more difficult to win now than it was back in racing’s glory days when horses actually did sweep the Triple Crown and legendary Hall of Famers graced the track on a regular basis.

Over the past four years, a total of 80 horses have run in the Kentucky Derby. Of those, 56 were graded stakes winners, eight were listed stakes winners, and 16 placed in graded stakes. That’s 80 starters and 80 stakes horses.

Now let’s go back to the years between 1969 and 1972 when no one had to qualify to run in the Derby. Just imagine the following being the case today and the outcry it would cause. During the above mentioned four years, the following horses ran in the Kentucky Derby: Royal Leverage, who’s only win in 10 career starts was for a $10,000 claiming tag; Big Brown Bear, whose only victory in 18 career starts was in a $15,000 claiming race; Majestic Needle, winner of one allowance race and a maiden special weight race in 23 career starts, who was coming off a 26-length defeat in the Blue Grass Stakes; Saigon Warrior, whose only victory in 17 career starts was in a six-furlong maiden race at Oaklawn Park; Fourulla, a maiden in four career starts; Pacallo, who broke his maiden in a $10,000 claiming race in Puerto Rico, and in his only race in America was beaten 11 lengths in a seven-furlong allowance race; Rae Jet, winner of two of 23 starts, who ran in an eight-horse Derby field against the likes of Majestic Prince, Arts and Letters, Top Knight, and Dike after getting beat in a $20,000 claiming race at six furlongs and finishing 17 lengths back in the Derby Trial; and Our Trade Winds, who was beaten 17 lengths in the Derby Trial, was eased in the Blue Grass Stakes, and was beaten 11 lengths in the Arkansas Derby.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44743

[Justpat]

1. Some good discussion over here:

http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com


The NY Times condescended to cover the Derby this year with a few people who actually like racing.
Imagine that!


Check it out.

[two gun sid]

2. The NYT's is actually doing a good job...

on horse racing with this blog. I was suprised. Thanks for that. I didn't know about it.

Red's in Friday at Hazel Park and Curly goes Saturday at Raceway. We are so going to get beat at Hazel. LOL.

[Justpat]

3. Let us know how they do.

I really like that blog the NY Times put up. Did you see the video by Ian McKinley
working with the glue on shoes? He works on two of the horses in our barn right now.
He is really expensive, but also really good.

[aaronbees]

4. The Handicapper's Edge looks at the contenders

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=11296

ADRIANO -- 101, 81, 97 (last three BRIS Speed ratings)
Strengths: The Graham Motion-trained colt opened his three-year-old season with a smashing 6 3/4-length allowance score over the turf at Gulfstream. He didn't handle the paddock or the 12-post in the Fountain of Youth (G2) next out, but Adriano (A.P. Indy) rebounded with a terrific score in the Lane's End S. (G2), winning convincingly from just off the pace. He's worked well twice over the dirt at Churchill Downs, and the talented colt is bred to excel at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt. Derby winner Edgar Prado selected Adriano over Wood (G1) winner Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat) and Blue Grass (G1) winner Monba.
....
BIG BROWN -- 110, 102, 91
Strengths: He rates as a standout based on his 110 BRIS Speed rating in the Florida Derby (G1). The Richard Dutrow-trained colt won that event for fun on the front end, with an extra furlong looking like no problem for him, and the defection of War Pass (Cherokee Run) opens the door for the possibility of a wire-two-wire romp on May 3. He might be too good for the opposition.
....
COURT VISION -- 98, 93, 90
Strengths: Captured the one-mile Iroquois S. (G3) last November and drilled four furlongs at Churchill in a bullet :46 1/5 on April 17, sparking speculation that the Bill Mott runner was suddenly coming into form. If he can peak on Derby Day, Court Vision (Gulch) figures to make some noise during the stretch run. The dark bay colt showed class at two, overcoming trouble to win the Remsen S. (G2), but he left himself with too much to do when far off the pace in his first two starts this year. The one-run closer will be guided by Garrett Gomez, who figures to win a Kentucky Derby eventually, and Court Vision will likely get a hot pace to set up his run.
....
EIGHT BELLES -- 103, 99, 98
Strengths: She'll bring a four-race winning streak into the Derby, and her 103 Speed rating in the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy (G2) compares very favorably to her male rivals. The gray filly owns a strong turn of foot, registering century-topping BRIS Late Pace numbers in her last four outings, and she's bred to handle 10 furlongs. After being a fairly non-descript runner last season, Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song) made huge strides for Larry Jones this year, and she owns room for further improvement.
....
SMOOTH AIR -- 105, 95, 99
Strengths: He's never finished out of the money (7-3-2-2) and ran a good second in the Florida Derby, 7 1/2 lengths clear of third. He's a heartwarming story, with 70-year-old Florida horseman Bennie Stutts saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter, and you can't knock the Grade 2 winner's consistency. Smooth Air (Smooth Jazz) is a candidate to outperform low expectations.

[Justpat]

5. The draw for post positions in the Derby will be Wednesday. n/t