Poll: 51.8% plan to vote no on question 1

[ccharles000]

According to new poll data, 51.8 percent of people who plan to vote in November say they will vote no or are leaning in that direction on question 1, the people’s veto of Maine’s same-sex marriage law.

The poll shows that 42.9 percent plan to vote yes, or are leaning that way. And 5.2 percent remain undecided.

A “no” vote would allow the same-sex marriage law to stand. A “yes” vote would overturn the law.

The poll was from Portland-based Pan Atlantic SMS Group, which released its fall Omnibus Poll today. The poll looks at state referendum issues, as well as the governor’s race and national policy questions.

According to Pan Atlantic, the survey is of 401 Mainers who identified themselves as “likely” voters in the Nov. 3 election. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

On question 2, the excise tax question, 48.3 percent said they’d support it or are leaning that way, while 46.1 percent said they’d vote against it, or are leaning that way. The firm said 5.5 percent are still undecided.

On the question to repeal Maine’s school consolidation law, 46.1 percent said they supported it or were leaning that way, while 41.1 percent were voting against it, or leaning that way. There were still 12.7 percent undecided.

And on the TABOR II question, 52.8 percent were in favor, or leaning that way, while 38.7 percent were opposed, or leaning that way. There were 8.5 percent of respondents who were undecided, the survey said.

http://updates.pressherald.mainetoday.com/updates/poll-518-plan-to-vote-no-on-question-1

[mikelgb]

1. Not Good Enough. That number needs to be within MOE

[FreeState]

6. +1 just sent $20

http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/22505

[Ian David]

2. That's still too damn close for comfort. n/t

[krispos42]

3. Civil rights should not be subject to majority rule

However it looks like civil rights will be preserved despite this fundamental flaw in the process.







For now.

[RetiredTrotskyite]

9. Oh, God/dess I Sure Hope So!

[Q3JR4]

4. It's all a crap shoot numbers game...

Meanwhile I found this website, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/analysis-gay-marriage-ban-is-underdog.html

Do with it what you will.

Q3JR4.

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. So voting 'no' means 'yes' to same-sex marriage, and voting 'yes'

means 'no' to same sex marriage.

Do they deliberately write the questions that way to confuse people?

[jonnyblitz]

7. I believe they do. there is a gay issue in washington state requir-

ing a vote that is worded in an even more confusing manner. i can't even explain to you what it is about.

[ShadowLiberal]

8. Great, but turnout can be hard to predict in offyear elections like this, so don't get overconfident

It's great that we're ahead, but don't get overconfident from the polls, it's difficult to predict turnout in a race like this where it will likely be low.

But still, there's hopeful signs in other areas in Maine, we raised 2.5 times more money for marriage equality then the opposition, and there's evidence that the opposition is getting nervous about their chances of defeating marriage equality given the big spending gap, and the gap in how many more paid staffers the marriage equality side has because of that money. But we can't get overconfident again like in California and assume we win no matter what we do.