New poll shows Prop 8 may pass

[FreeState]

it came out today:

http://cbs5.com/local/proposition.8.poll.2.834082.html

According to the poll, likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure's opponents.

Here is the poll for those interested: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b46ce159-115e-4f44-8be2-ce9b8eca657e

Notice it has 53% of people aged 18-35 voting yes. I have no idea how they got this number.

Here is the field poll from may that says:

Californians age 18-29 favor the idea of allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry by a greater than
two to one margin (68% to 25%). Those in the 30-39 age group also approve of such marriages by
24 percentage points. However voters age 65 or older disapprove by a wide margin (55% to 36%).

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2268.pdf

So is the poll bunk or should we be worried?

[still_one]

1. Survey USA is crap. The Field Poll is a very reputable poll /nt

[FreeState]

2. Thanks, still makes me nervous though... n/t

[goodgd_yall]

3. I think it's OK to be nervous

Don't underestimate the ability of the socially conservative churches to rally and galvanize their flocks.

As anecdotal evidence, I've seen no Prop 8 signs in my neighborhood, for or against, and today suddenly there were 4 of them. That came from organization; it wasn't just random.

[FreeState]

5. I think the yes on 8 signs just arrived China n/t

[goodgd_yall]

6. Oh, THAT's it

:rofl:

[still_one]

7. That is good, as long as it motivates the get out the vote /nt

[CADEMOCRAT7]

4. I do not believe it will pass.

I live in the Bay Area, no one I know is voting for Prop 8. The ad the fundy right is running out here is simply ridiculous.

[terrya]

8. I'm suspicious of that poll.

Like everywhere else on 11/4, there will be a HUGE turnout. More so on our side. The 18-29 group is up in voter registrations.

I think Prop 8 will fail. The numbers have been that way for months now.

[NorthCarolina]

10. I bet its a completely fabricated poll deliberately presented as fact

in order to plant a seed in the mind of simpleton voters that tend to vote in the manner they perceive to be the "majority" opinion.

[LeftHander]

9. There is much regret about Wisconsin's vote...my story

After four years since the marriage ban and ban on recognizing any relationship similar to marriage for any couple and any same sex couple married in another state...the general consensus is now it was a bad idea.

Even those who voted for the ban...have recanted. They now see the result that emotional vote had on families, children and the people of Wisconsin.

The problem is that religious extremists had lots of money and kept pounding right up to election day...with fear and misinformation.

Do not give up thinking that clearer heads will prevail on election day. They won't.

You need to tell people one on one...what this law will do. It will prevent families from being recognized and being eligible for real benefits that help real children.

Case in point...my own.

If a relative of a gay man in a long term relationship dies and leaves behind children. His relationship cannot be seen as such legally. If that person has a low income it can result in benefits being denied because household income is too high.

I have run into this...my partner's 12 yo niece and 16 yo nephew are living with us now. It has been very frustrating for me as I cannot participate, yet I am. I was almost denied entry into family court because the bailiff questioned my relationship. I am no different to my man that any spouse in a hetero couple. The clerk said in a terse tone that I was to go ahead and go in.

I sat silent. As my partner, alone gained permanent guardianship. There was no recognition officially of our shared household and our loving relationship... The Ad Litem argued that our home was the best place for these children. All agreed. But still...I felt like angry...that my partner had to constantly argue that he was in a relationship, he was not alone, he had the financial means, despite what was on paper....because I was ignored officially. Many helped us bring wonderful young people into our lives and give them a shot at a good future. But many too looked down their noses.

I want to be married. I want to call the kids my niece and nephew, my son and daughter. I want to declare them my dependents so I can provide health insurance from work. Other couples can. I cannot without paying many times more for the same service.

I have to be a silent partner...my financial contribution to this family unit IS counted and prevents us from getting full benefits by my partner because the household makes too much money....some places ignore me so they can apply for healthcare...which is still not granted...

PEOPLE who work in government and social services know what is right, and amendments like this are not right. They simply give excuses to the haters to further degenerate LGBT people. Is that what "Christians" really want? To put families at risk?

These laws and amendments are out of step with the social realities of the day.

[dbackjon]

11. Any chance of revokation in Wisconsin?

[LeftHander]

13. Maybe....but not until state legislature takes it up...

Lots of crazy ass repukes at state level.

[dbackjon]

14. Can citizens bypass and petition an amendment to the ballot?

[dbackjon]

12. But 47% is still not enough. Most undecideds vote no on ANY ballot measure