Study finds catch-22 of pandemic flu; could be stopped, but resources lack

[pandemic_1918]

Study finds catch-22 of pandemic flu; could be stopped, but resources lacking
http://www.canada.com/health/story.html?id=daf89fb9-9566-403b-bcb5-0a5d7df22be2
Helen Branswell
Canadian Press


Wednesday, December 15, 2004


TORONTO (CP) - Mathematical modellers at Harvard's School of Public Health may have identified the catch-22 of pandemic flu.
Future influenza pandemics might in theory be containable through aggressive early control measures, including wide use of vaccine and anti-viral drugs, they reported Wednesday in a letter to the journal Nature.
The hole in the argument, the authors admit, is that the world is not laying the groundwork needed to have those expensive tools ready for use in the early days of a pandemic.
"In theory it's possible," senior author Marc Lipsitch said of the containment hypothesis, which is based on modelling that suggests the influenza strain responsible for the worst pandemic in known history was not highly contagious.
While attractive, the theory would not gain universal acceptance from those who specialize in studying the way infectious diseases spread.
"This means that the disease can be stopped or slowed down by appropriate interventions, but those interventions require significant planning and investment and a high level of compliance among the population to those control measures," said Babak Pourbohloul, a mathematical modeller at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control.
Still, Lipsitch said the results support the argument that it's worth a try.
In particular, he highlighted the notion that developed countries should donate a stockpile of anti-viral drugs that could be used in a bid to extinguish an emerging pandemic.

[pandemic_1918]

1. Anti-virals for Pandemic Flu

There have been quite a few media stories base on study that came out today in Nature, suggesting that the flu that caused the 1918 pandemic wasn't overly infectious, just deadly.

In media reports the authors of the analysis suggest stockpiling anti-virals, but the H5N1 virus causing all of the concern is resistant to two antivirals, Amantadine and Rimantadine and the only oral anti-viral left is Tamiflu, but its utility in stemming a pandemic is questionable

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_anti_virals.html

[idealista]

3. Re: current flu vaccine

pandemic_1918 -

On an earlier related thread I believe you mentioned that the current flu vaccine has some hereditary relationship to a 1934 flu, which might confer some partial immunity atleast to this new swine flu in Korea, if I am getting that right (or atleast close?)

Anyway, I understand there is an inhalable vaccine available to all ages (at 46, the regular flu vaccine is not available to me). Do you know if this inhalable vaccine is the same as the standard (injected) vaccine in this regard?

[pandemic_1918]

4. Flumist

Flumist has the same 3 viruses as the injectable. The viruses are attenuated (not killed) and you should develop an even stronger immune response. I would strongly recommend Flumist since you are in the proper are group.

The WSN/33 news is being carried in mainland China

http://www.recombinomics.com/WSN33_Zhejiang.html

The virus is very real and very dangerous. I expect the story to break big time next week.

[idealista]

5. thanks for the info about flumist

I will call my doctor/Kaiser pharmacy here in So. Cal. ASAP. And by the way, thank you for all the fascinating information on flu strains/epidemics etc.

[pandemic_1918]

2. Case Fatality Rate

"According to the Harvard modelling, the strain responsible for the Spanish flu of 1918 was far more deadly than strains before or since, but was not significantly more infectious."

The 1918 pandemic flu strain had a case fatality rate in the 2-5% range.

In 2004 H5N1 in Vietnam and Thailand has a case fatality rate exceeding 70%

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_fatality_rate.html