First genetic analysis of swine flu reveals potency

[TZ]

The H1N1 flu continues to spread around the world, with cases now confirmed from more than a dozen countries, from Hong Kong to Canada.

Yet the first genetic analysis of how well this virus transmits from person to person concludes that it spreads barely well enough to keep itself going.

The analysis also suggests the virus may have started circulating as long ago as January. But because there have been so few cases to analyse, the calculation is uncertain. It could have started more recently, or as far back as September.

Nicholas Grassly of Imperial College London and Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, UK, have analysed the rate of spread. Their analysis is based on the small mutations that have accumulated in almost two dozen genetic sequences produced so far, from viruses collected from patients in Mexico and the US.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17072-first-genetic-analysis-of-swine-flu-reveals-potency.html
I am completely fascinated by the unfolding science behind this influenza. Hopefully it will stay mild. Its evolution in action and as such interesting intellectually.

[mod mom]

1. I heard on NPR this morning that the 1st person to pig case has been detected

which might allow for a more virulent strain to develop. I'm not an expert-just relaying what I heard, since you're interested in the disease.

[TZ]

2. Thanks.

Yeah if it goes person-pig- back to person thats probably pretty bad news for us. Was this in Canada? I remember hearing something about it being found in Canada in pigs...

[mod mom]

4. Here's the link to the NPR story:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103765254

[aquart]

3. Is that the case up in Canada?

[Pharaoh]

5. you can watch it spread here

http://www.idemc.org/

[aquart]

6. What makes me crazy is that there are HUNDREDS of cases in Queens.

A third of the largest Catholic high school has symptoms. But they aren't counted because the city knew it was swine from a few cases. Confirmed cases doesn't begin to give the picture.

And so my mom won't go to the gym because Bellerose is too damn close to Fresh Meadows.

[MercutioATC]

7. The CDC is also limiting the number of samples it'll accept.

It's backlogged, so "confirmed" cases aren't giving us a realistic number.

[aquart]

10. Not even close.

Last week was Take Your Child to Work Day. Little germ factories visiting businesses all over the country. So today my sister's husband barely makes it home before he throws up all over. But no fever so who knows what it is. Still, we know swine is in San Diego...

I'll feel a whole lot better when we have the vaccine up and running.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

8. Genetically, it may be weak to average in strength ...

But socially and economically, it's a monster.

One kid sneezes, and a school district is shut down. Powers-that-be are so jumpy, they seem to be over-reacting to any illness. This might be possibly related to Homeland Security's determination to have "no more Katrinas".

There's probably no way to accurately gauge the impact of a minor-to-average flu, vs the cost of turning all those kids loose to swarm the malls, or increase daytime traffic. But a study might be interesting.

Anyway, thanks for the link. Interesting how quickly these viruses can mutate, though it may not be so quick when measured in "virus years".

[MercutioATC]

9. Suppose it has a ZERO percent mortality rate.

If it continues to spread like this, you could easily have 30%-50% of people sick (and not working) for 5-7 days.

That's a pretty serious economic issue.