Marburg Toll in Angola Balloons to 255<
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04170501/Marburg_Toll_255.html>
QUOTE:
The rising death toll in the absence of patients in the isolation wards in Uige and Luanda supports the observation that patients are dying in neighborhoods and avoiding hospitals. These numbers would also suggest that infected individuals are moving out of the area. However, it is difficult to see why such movement would not result in transmission in the new areas, because the families would not be trained in infection control. The large number of fatal Marburg cases in health care workers indicates that transmission associated with close contact with dead or dying patients is quite efficient.
The increase in patients follows a period of reclassification of Marburg cases. Health reports from last week suggested the requirements for inclusion in the case tally were being tightened. All of the new reported cases in Uige for April 13 were laboratory confirmed, suggesting lab confirmation may be a new requirement for inclusion as a reported case. That requirement may be more easily met in Uige, since there is now a new lab set up with rapid turnaround of testing data. However, a lab confirmation requirement may produce a significant undercount, especially in more distant provinces. Sample collection may be absent in some cases, and in others transport of collected samples to testing facilities may produce sample degradation and false negatives.
The reclassification did eliminate cases from Kwanza Sul, where there were cases clustered in 3 adjacent municipalities. The reported cases in Zaire were also eliminated administratively by reclassifying them.
Efforts to manage an outbreak by simply administratively eliminating cases because of unrealistic requirements can lead to gross undercounts and undetected spread of virus. The analogies with the bird flu management in southeast Asia have some striking parallels. The bird flu undercounts were driven by several factors, including unreported data, untested patients, and using tests with poor sensitivity. False negatives due to poor testing procedure or sample degradation also contributed to the gross undercount.MY NOTE: There is a marked tendency by governments everywhere to attempt to bury the truth, even in the face of a deadly disease. Most governments will justify the actions to cover-up as an attempt to reduce or eliminate panic, but in most cases it's simply done to avoid taking responsibility.