Kos: In PA, no one cares about Kerry's botched joke

[beachmom]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/3/143241/049


This is Markos talking here -- file this, in case anyone wants to change the facts after the election.

I'll also add, that Casey took the high road on this, and won.

[Mass]

1. Also, file the TN poll results of last week

With the exception of Rasmussen, all these polls were taken last week and Ford is trailing badly.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/3/12324/0104
http://pollster.com/polls/?state=TN&race=senate_race

Rasmussen poll not yet released, taken sometime midweek. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/30)
Corker (R) 53 (48)
Ford (D) 45 (47)

That is a catastrophic collapse. And Rasmussen ain't the only operation to capture this collapse. Look at other very recent independent polling in the race:

Zogby:
Corker (R) 53 (40)
Ford (D) 43 (40)

CNN:
Corker (R) 52
Ford (D) 44

[karynnj]

2. That likely means the nasty Republican ad worked

And the polling ended before Tuesday for al but Rassmussen.

[Mass]

3. But be sure some will say Kerry was responsible.

[beachmom]

4. You know what may have hurt Ford: his stance on gay marriage

I know that may sound strange that it would hurt him in Tennessee, but he just sounded inauthentic. He's a Democrat, and Democrats don't advocate discrimination. People thought -- hey, this guy's a phony who will say ANYTHING just to get elected. That's my theory. Also, the scream of racism against that ad may have backfired. A lot of white people didn't think it was racist (wrong as they may be), so hearing the scream of racism made them think Ford was playing the victim, even if it wasn't him who said it. The Kerry flap wasn't in the poll, but Ford bashing him also seemed phony, especially since he accepted the money. It may turn around with his appearance on Hannity which was very strong.

[Firespirit]

6. Harold Ford...

I am not sure what to make of this guy.

On one hand, he seems a bit self-absorbed and almost too smooth.

On the other hand, this race underscores just how difficult it is for a Democrat to win in the South. This year is, of course, the best year for Democrats in a long time. Harold Ford is probably one of the most conservative Democrats we fielded this year. Yet he appears to be losing. I hate to keep harping on this point, but this race is Exhibit A why I think it's more important to focus on the West, the Midwest, and borderline states like Virginia than on the "South" proper.

I hope he wins, because it is a seat in the Senate. But at this point I'm not holding my breath for it. If he loses, then Missouri and Virginia are must-haves.

We don't take the House, then JK will be blamed (however unjustly) and it will be really bad. We take the House but not the Senate, there will likely be sniping, but it's recoverable. We take both, and things are looking much better for Kerry.

[MBS]

8. nice analysis

. .though looking at the October Bush (dis) approval ratings
< http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/50StateBushApproval061017State.htm >, the deep south is more "purple" or even "blue" than you might think.
No question it's still hard for Dem candidates there, but I wouldn't give up on deep south.

.. or on any other "red" state. There are all kinds of non-intuitive things happening. In Idaho, one of the reddest of the red states, the Dem candidate for governor is AHEAD. In IDAHO.

[Firespirit]

12. The problem goes deeper, though

The South, to its credit, has turned against the war. It's also turned against Bush, to some extent. But I'm from the Deep South, and I keep in touch with people who still live there... Some of these "disapprove of Bush" votes are from people who just think he's been a bad conservative. They're the fundies who think he hasn't been hard enough on their "issues." They haven't renounced their ideology. The South is a long-term project, but for now, I just don't think we're going to do that well except in blue districts and at the local or state level.

[beachmom]

11. I think with the very red South, it's best to start small, like

city councils, mayors, and the state level. Get people to trust you. But really -- it's hard to convince people to vote for you and have almost the same positions as your opponent. Why wouldn't they just go with the real thing? Jim Webb here in Virginia has come out against the gay marriage amendment, really for legal reasons, and I think people will be attracted to that as authenticity.

[Firespirit]

16. I agree

The funny thing is, Democrats frequently win races in the South, up to the governorship. And of course there are Democratic congressional districts. It's just not easy to field a winning Democrat for Senator.

However, the Democratic Party in the South has a major problem in that it can be very weak-kneed. Just as an example, my "home" district, MS-03, should be more competitive than it is. It was formed from two districts when the state lost a seat after the 2000 census, and it pitted a Democratic incumbent against a Republican incumbent in 2002. It was a close race. But the Democratic Party didn't field anyone in 2004 or this year. You heard it here first -- if this seat is still Republican in 2010 or 2012, it will be contested, by yours truly. The representative is involved with the Abramoff crap and has documented ties to the Abramoff-funded child slavery on the Mariana Islands (do a tag search of "CNMI" on Daily Kos to get the full, horrible story). That kind of crap is deadly, if a candidate had just run against him and brought it up. But the party, for reasons unknown, chose not to contest this seat.

[beachmom]

17. Wow, you are a brave soul! At least Karl Rove will be retired by then. n/t

[Firespirit]

18. Well, I'm not old enough now

I'll turn 25 in November of 2008. I'm serious though, it sickens me for this piece of sh*t to continue to get elected on "family values" while he is involved with something like that.

[beachmom]

19. Oh, then a happy birthday to you this month! Yes, complacency

breeds putting up with people like your home district's congressmen. Only action and vigilance keeps our government clean.

[karynnj]

7. I agree - those these numbers are crystal clear

but Kerry is ging to be the scapegoat. This is going to be tough.

[wisteria]

13. That is ridiculous. Polls indicate this incident had no impact.

Besides, it was Kerry who became the victim in all of this. If they even try to blame him, it is bullshit.

[Firespirit]

14. Corker has been gaining for awhile.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Sen_graphs/tennessee.html

Kerry had nothing to do with it. It was that Repub ad. I hate it, but that sort of crap influences fundamentalist voters.

[beachmom]

15. Interesting -- Rich Lowry is still worried about TN

It's in a new post by Kos. And somebody from Tenn. has a diary saying Kos is wrong, and that it's not over yet.

So maybe we should wait before we hand wring about Tenn.

[wisteria]

10. I think the Repub ad gave TN voters an excuse to vote against

Ford. Being prejudice is wrong, but it unfortunately still exists, most of the time, quite and out of sight. Very few would admit they would not vote for him because of his skin color because they know it is wrong, but to vote against him because of an implied lack of moral judgment gives them the excuse they need to vote their prejudices.

Now, it isn't over till it is over. I will hope for the best here, for Kerry's sake as well as Ford's. Even though we all know Kerry had nothing to do with this as the polling indicates, he may have a finger pointed at him just as an excuse.

[wisteria]

5. Casey is above all else, honorable. He is a class act. n/t

[MBS]

9. I also agree that Casey is a class act

His defense of Kerry was the best I've seen from any congressional candidate.