08 race officially opened - Vilsack leads the dance.

[Mass]

Who comes next? (interesting. I thought Vilsack would not run.)

http://www.radioiowa.com/gestalt/go.cfm?objectid=F48F4757-E103-40D5-879B5BF7BAE5B59B

Vilsack filing papers to run for president

by O. Kay Henderson

Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is taking the formal steps necessary to run for president. Today (Thursday), Vilsack is filing documents with the Federal Election Commission, establishing the "Tom Vilsack for President" campaign committeed.

...

[sandnsea]

1. I don't get it

I can't see a pure politics game, I can't see how Vilsack thinks he can win, I just don't get this one at all. He thinks he's Bill Clinton??? Hmm hmm, nope. I just hope he doesn't get personally beaten up, they're very nice people and that would be really too bad.

[rox63]

2. Well, he probably has a head start in the Iowa caucuses

But other than that, I see people saying "Tom Who???" :boring:

[emulatorloo]

13. This Iowan has always been immune to the "charms" of Vilsack

Plenty like him, and he's smart and articulate. But I always felt he was a lackluster gov.

[wisteria]

3. Interesting, the suggestion of a run was brought up in a PA rally about

a year ago, by Gov. Rendell.(Rendell, pissed me off because he did mention something about Kerry not having the personality that Vilsack does at that rally) Also interesting is that Rendell has said this is his last run for an office. A field organizer for him, I had done campaign work for, has said Rendell expects to get a cabinet position in Washington.
I also think this is an indication that the DLC feels they have the upper hand on the party and it's candidates.
Well, everyone has the right to run- we will just have to wait and see.

[karynnj]

4. Another way to look at it is that if gains any traction

he splits the DLC vote. The fact that he was polling 4th in IOWA I think - behind Edwards, Clinton and Kerry (not sure if he and Kerry were tied) does not bode well for a favorite son run.

[wisteria]

6. Right now though, for Kerry,I am staying away from polling.

I would bet with the negative publicity he received for his remarks over the botched joke, some numbers may not be very good. After all, they did try to make it his nail in the coffin.
However, your idea is interesting. Would he go through a run though just for Hillary's sake?
Gosh, I have to tell you, I am not happy with the crop of supposed runners for 08 except for Kerry. I can not bring myself to even except that Hillary is so popular and people want her to run. Not only that, but Dem or no Dem, I will not vote for her.

[ProSense]

8. Here are a few (note: nothing has changed)

Grant this is before the smear:

Thursday, November 09, 2006
The '08 race for the W.H.: Democrats
CNN POLL
October 27-29
Registered Democrats'
Choice for Nominee in 2008

Clinton-28%
Obama-17%
Gore-13%
Edwards-13%
Kerry-12%
Bayh-2%
Biden-2%
Feingold-2%
Richardson-2%
Vilsack-1%

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/blogs/politicalticker/2006/11/08-race-for-wh-democrats.html

Another, this one after the smear:

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08dem.htm


Repubs:

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08rep.htm


Repub v. Dems

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#misc

Still pushing Hillary and McCain. All in all, still BS!

[_dynamicdems]

44. These numbers do not reflect what KIND of support any potential candidate has.

The Kerry percentages indicate the number of true supporters who are still hanging on and cannot be shaken off. We have gone through Hell and back to get to this point and we are dug in for the duration. Kerry support numbers will not be divided regardless of who joins the race. We are the bottom line. No matter what else changes, this 12% is solid. And that is a very good place to start.

This is not the case for other candidates. While we are intent on voting Kerry no matter what, Clinton voters may jump ship if Obama or Gore actually enters the race. Or a dark horse candidate might also chip away at her lead. In other words, Kerry's poll numbers are his lowest possible numbers but Hillary's numbers are probably her highest. That gives some perspective to her 28% as opposed to Kerry's 12%.

[sandnsea]

5. Hillary's attack dog

They need to have someone out there to say the things they can't say so they can be the positive candidate. I bet that's what he's going to be for Hillary. Don't you think? Otherwise it just doesn't make sense for them to run a bunch of DLCers.

[Mass]

7. Al Franken just said he thinks Kerry will not run now that Vilsack runs.

:boring:

I think that Al should start working on his run for senator against Coleman and stop being a pundit.

[politicasista]

9. delete

wrong spot

[TayTay]

10. Al is repeating CW

A lot of people have been saying that.

No one knows what Sen. Kerry will do until he announces his intentions. I do think that Kerry has cause to re-think what he wants to do. This will be an incredibly nasty run this time around, even worse than '03. Remember, it's not just one person who runs for President, it's their whole family, their friends and everyone who knows them.

I would pause and re-think that in terms of what happened last week. I would want to recount my supporters, check and make sure the money-guys are still there and so forth.

It's a big decision, versus a sure-thing in the Senate. Especially now that Dems have some real power. There are actual things that Kerry could accomplish, things he has wanted to do all his life in the Senate. That is within his grasp. Do you throw that away for a long-shot? (ALL RUNS for the President, no matter who makes them, are long-shots, btw.) Do you listen when the Senate leadership starts horse-trading with you on powerful positions and dangles interesting things in front of you?

I hope the good Senator takes his time and considers all angles.

[politicasista]

12. I hope so also n/t

[wisteria]

14. I would be very disappointed but, would look forward to 2012.

I have concerns about anyone who we run now that we control both houses. I have to wonder if the voting public might be a little leary of allowing all the power to one branch political party again so soon.

[whometense]

15. reading the tea leaves

of your comments...

Sounds like you think the recent flap might have done some real damage? I agree that at the very least it was an indicator of what lies ahead. A whole lot of ugliness.

On the other hand, there's no one on the horizon with anything close to his qualifications for the job.

[wisteria]

16. IMO, I think it might of brought things to the surface- all the ugliness

and personal attacks. It is a lot to take on and over come. The media in some circles just savaged ly attacked him. I don't want them to report that this Rove trick did him in though.
He is viewed as an outsider and I think with those in power right now within our party, they are going to go with support for a DLC candidate.

However, I would be extremely disappointed and wouldn't want to see him abandon a run in the future. he has my support no matter what he choses. let him take the time to decide. He doesn't need to do it anytime soon.

[TayTay]

17. I have no way of knowing.

Nor does anyone else. Fire, posting on this board, has more intimate knowledge of this than I do.

I was just thinking out loud. I know this state rep who was running in what was a 4 way race for District Attorney this year. The Powers That Be (TPTB) decided that we didn't want a 4 way Dem bloodbath in that particular district attorney's race. So, various people were lured away by promising them things that they would get to do if they quit the race. (Important things and things they had spent a lifetime working toward. This involved national issues and a chance to really, really make a mark in the US Justice system. Big doings.)

This happens. Power is both a positive and a very seductive thing. We might have arrived at a moment in American History where Democrats can put a mark on an agenda going forward. We have not had this chance in decades, not since Reagan came into power. Things are possible now that were not possible two years ago. There are people who will serve in Congress who might actually get a chance to put a lasting imprint on this country on things that they have spent a lifetime in public service working for. A lifetime. It is within our grasp.

What would you do? Imagine health care really and truly on the table with the conditions right, from business to the Congress to the will of the people to actually change the way we do health care in this nation. (Can you imagine people saying to you, yeah, go get 'em, go change the way we do health care in this country. Only, you can't do that other thing at the same time.) Imagine rewriting the way education is done in this country, and using science and technology to re-imagine our future. These are not nothing.

[whometense]

18. No, they are not nothing.

I've been thinking about this a lot too the past few weeks, only coming up with very few ideas of what I think might actually happen. And that was before the election switched everything around. It is truly a whole new ballgame (assuming the dems can hold it together, keep Holy Joe in line, etc, etc, and actually do something with the power they now have.

If Kerry decides to run he has my full support, but he has my support no matter what he decides to do; it's not conditional based on a presidential run. I would not blame him if he didn't run, though. I can't imagine what Vilsack is thinking. If, as someone suggested, he's in there to be a Clinton attack dog, I'd think they could have found one who was more vicious. Vilsack doesn't seem to be a mean guy.

[Firespirit]

22. DC buzz

DC buzz is that it is far more likely that Hillary will be lured away by a promise of power than Kerry. The party really and truly wasn't counting on taking the Senate, and this threw a major wrench into a lot of calculations. At this point I would put Hillary's chance of running for president at 55%, because of the Senate leadership option that is now available to her. If she doesn't run, it's a whole different ballgame.

This was a good election result for Kerry. The fact that Jim Webb was the 51st Democrat is the absolute best that Kerry could take from the election after the joke flap. Do not underestimate the fact that he has some powerful allies in the Senate and House now. Webb is the star of the day. If he endorsed JK, that would be quite a coup for us.

[whometense]

24. Good points.

I've been wondering too about whether Harry Reid has the stomach for the job - he did have some health issues last year, and it's a pretty consuming position. Kerry aside, it's not hard to see Hillary in that job. She's a natural hardass - much more so than Reid.

[wisteria]

29. He had a stroke and IMO, he hasn't been as forceful since. n/t

[Firespirit]

34. It would be tremendously unfair to Durbin,

but if it gets her out of the way, I'd be for it. So long as Durbin didn't get the ax on his current position. She has been a decent Senator for New York, but would be a very poor president, and I do not think she would last longer than a single term.

We need to look at some cold hard facts now. The Republican Party is currently in "bloodbath and purge" mode, but whoever comes out on top, it won't be moderates.

The Revolution of '94 and Contract On America are finished. They were corrupt, stupid, and did themselves in eventually, some early, some 12 years later. The exit polls show that corruption was the number one issue for voters (by a narrow lead, granted, but it was still #1). However, with the nomination of Gates, it shows that the old guard of BCCI/Iran Contra criminals are still waiting in the wings. These people have long-standing ties to the PNAC set, and they are notoriously resilient to ever being taken down.

Bush's name is toxic now, as well as anyone closely associated with him. He will be disowned. The Republican Party right now is retooling itself to put forth "new faces" that are untainted by the stench of corruption. A lot of Bush's disapproval rating comes from conservatives who think he is incompetent and a bad conservative. Mark my words -- the "new" Republican Party will be AT LEAST as hard-right as it is now, but it will have a set of "clean" new faces. The Young Republicans -- they, and those like them, will be the next set. Young, "pretty," and unassociated with this current bunch of corrupt idiots.

This fight has only just begun.

I will be the first to admit that Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic nomination if she chooses to run. She could even be president, since so many Republican possibles are self-destructing. It would be a close race because of the attack from both the left and the right, but she could win it.

However, with the coming remaking of the Republican Party, she cannot win a second term. And let me say, if they get back in after a six-year hiatus, what they do will be WORSE than what BushCo has done. They will have learned from the mistakes of BushCo and will cover their tracks better. Hillary couldn't stave it off because she is a weak person (as the joke incident showed), but John Kerry could do it. He doesn't have her baggage or her dirty laundry, and he is a fighter.

Hillary can't be allowed to become president. Long-term, it would be a complete disaster.

[TayTay]

25. I completely agree

There is another side to this coin. (I do not know if the Senator still wants to run. I am outside this looking in.)

Do not underestimate having Sen. Kennedy in there as a Committee Chairman. This is a big, big deal for John Kerry. It is also a big, big deal to have 9 Mass Congressmen chair powerful sub-committees in the House. (This is a huge deal for a State that has been shut out of power utterly since 1994.) We have people very ably minding the store at home, in a way we haven't had for a long, long time. Massachusetts is not being ignored. This State has more power than it has had in a long time and there will be a sense of stability here. That is also, not nothing.

If Teddy is still there for John, that is a big, big deal. It means money, it means supporters. There is also the fact that we have a Gov in Mass who knows and worked for John Kerry and whom Kerry helped put in office by funding that Victory 06 effort. (Again, this was huge.) I heard that Deval was not too happy with being blown off by Barack Obama at a rally and that there is some rivalry there as well.

We shall see what happens. But it is interesting.

[WildEyedLiberal]

26. Blown off by Barack Obama?

What happened? Did Obama promise to attend a rally and bail at the last second? I don't believe I ever heard that bit of scuttlebutt.

[politicasista]

27. Really? According to the Bay State Banner they are "friends"

In fact, they have a pic of Deval and Barack together in this weeks issue online.

[whometense]

28. I heard this story too -

it was going around the MA blogs a few weeks ago.

Here's a link: http://gitell.wordpress.com/2006/10/26/patrick-v-obama/

[wisteria]

30. I have to tell you, listening to both men speak, I enjoyed Patrick

more than Obama. Pie in the sky virus grounded and passionate.

[Mass]

32. His acceptance speech was extraordinary. I do not know if you have heard it.

It made me proud to be from MA. He was doing a great job at bringing people together without telling anybody they had to forget what they stood for. A real breath of fresh air.

[karynnj]

36. Patrick's story is also way way more incredible

Growing up in one room in a tenement on the South side of Chicago and getting a chance to go to a MA prep school is amazing. That he was able to make that transistion shows an incredibly amazing person. I am so so glad I saw Tay's post about his Faneuil Hall rally that was going to happen on a day that my husband and I were already planning to be in Boston. That was beyond incredible.

[karynnj]

35. Maybe Webb could become what McCain was before he traded his soul in

The Senate is small enough that he will likely really get to know Kerry. If Webb is genuine, he will see that Kerry actually is motivated by concerns for the troops. He may see that his view was mistaken. Also, though he may be grateful for Clinton's help at the end, it is less likely to change his deepest feelings on Clinton.

Even if he doesn't endorse Kerry, he should at least be willing to protect him a bit on this military thing - possibly after they together do something for the veterans.

[karynnj]

19. I see what you are saying

and like you I hope he makes the decision that is best for him. He has already contributed a huge amount to this country. His voice has been a voice for morality, fairness, and ending corruption that is unique.

I hadn't thought of the fact that his potential run does make it more likely that he could be offered something interesting. After this burst of uncalled for nastiness that could be tempting - if he thought the ultimate candidate would be good for the country. I don't see any better than he is and few even close.

The other question is whether anyone else can stand up to the same scrutiny. Another question is whether it is possible that for some reason the RW targets Kerry more than they will others.

Another thing to think of is that this time there were more people who called out the Republicans on this. That is good. Especially as in 2004, the lies were lies and they were about Kerry's absolutely exemplary service. Here, it was somewhat less black and white - the smear was beyond disgusting but Kerry did flub a snarky joke. (Note - not blaming Kerry - we all liked those jokes - including some of the DU people who later slammed it.)

[whometense]

20. I agree with you.

I think Kerry has a big fat target on his back because they all know he's not a go-along-to-get-along type. He's dangerous. Think Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. Kerry is more Mr. Smith than anyone else I can think of.

[karynnj]

37. I agree

I just wish more people would see that - people get so distracted because he's wealthy, stylish, and has such a cosmipolitan background - but when it comes down to it he is the honest, true, real old fashioned person of that era's movies.

He is Mr Smith or George Bailey of It's a wonderful Life. (Oddly Kerry saved lives too)

I agree with you that many people in DC are co-opted into ignoring things they shouldn't. I even wonder if the RW intentionally pulls some Democrats into getting illict benefits to prevent Democrats from stopping things. It looked that way on the BCCI stuff Tay posted today - Safire acts as though it was all Democrats involved.

I rejected the RW stories on Mena Arkansas, until I learned that it is a completely proven fact that drugs were flown into Arkaksas. At minimkum Clinton knew it was happening, knew the CIA sponsored it and didn't put up an outcry - He is NOT Mr. Smith.

[ProSense]

38. My questions is:

Why do people believe this smear will have a bigger impact than any they'll launch on other candidates? Sure the media would most likely play up a Kerry smear, but does anyone consider some of the crazy things out there that the RW can and will spin at all cost? What will the GOP candidates spin against each other (McCain 2000)? I gaurantee that no matter who runs, the RW will pounce.
No matter what the Democrats do these next months, the RW will pounce! The underlying premise of the smear against Kerry is silly, and no matter what the media claims, the public didn't buy it, and the pre-election polls and exist polls prove that. IMO, this is more of the media (and opportunists) hoping that repetition sways perception. It hasn't and I don't believe it can. This is all about campaigning.

Here is an interesting commentary :

Democrats should mind manners-- unlike GOP

[TayTay]

39. I sasw The Colbert Report last night

Funny stuff. Lots of laughs during 'The Word' section, except for the joke about Kerry. Dead silence then.

[Firespirit]

21. It's exactly what has been going on

I would pause and re-think that in terms of what happened last week. I would want to recount my supporters, check and make sure the money-guys are still there and so forth.

It's been going on, hardcore.

Kerry supporters, however, are a loyal bunch. To the best of my knowledge, there hasn't been a problem in this regard.

Vilsack is a complete non-entity. I think the only reason he did this was so he wouldn't slip into total obscurity when the bulk of the announcements come, and generate a little buzz for himself early. Vilsack doesn't even poll well for president in his own state. The idea that Vilsack could affect Kerry's decision doesn't even make sense to me. I really don't see the logic behind it.

[whometense]

23. So true.

Once a Kerry person, always a Kerry person.

And he wouldn't be the guy we know and love if he weren't reevaluating everything right now. Not just for himself, but for his family, who would all be a big part of another run.

[wisteria]

31. He is a special man. n/t

[MBS]

45. that's completely absurd

What can Al be thinking?
Vilsack is going nowhere, and he and Kerry are absolutely not in the same league.

[politicasista]

11. Tavis Smiley was talking about 2008, Hillary and Bayh

He was saying that they are moving towards the right along with McCain. Scary stuff. :scared:

[whometense]

33. The Premise (Iowan insight)

http://thepremise.com/archives/11/09/2006/633

Interesting.

Outgoing two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has announced that he’s going to run for President in 2008. That’s not a surprise, but as a (mostly) life-long Iowan who twice voted for Governor Vilsack I do find it interesting. I also think it may change the 2008 playing field in some subtle and not-so-subtle ways...

...the DLC is Bill Clinton’s centrist baby, so it’s probably not going to come as a shock to you that Hillary Clinton is one of its current members. It also seems obvious that Hillary Clinton can now skip the Iowa Caucuses if she wants without paying much of a price, just as her husband did in 1992. My guess would be that she would campaign hard in New Hampshire, which happens to be tucked up close to her current stomping ground in New York, and which, again, was the site of her husband’s first real test of presidential viability.

Governor Vilsack’s announcement also makes early talk of a Clinton-Vilsack team pretty obvious, and I don’t see any reason why that wouldn’t work to their mutual advantage. Tom Vilsack is often be accused of being boring, but that means he wouldn’t be competing against the head of the ticket in terms of charisma. Like Bill Clinton he’s a big man, solidly built, and could lend a reassuring masculine presence to a female-led ticket...

..If anyone is particularly hurt by this announcement it’s John Edwards, who continued to spend a great deal of time in the state after 2004, maintaining and expanding the base of operations that pushed him to a second place showing in that year.

Should Barack Obama or John Kerry or anyone else choose to run for president, they’ll have to make an early decision about whether to expend resources in the state or not, and that will have a big effect on whether the caucues become a significant determinant in the presidential selection process. In a race where national security may play a particularly important role, it’s not a given that Tom Vilsack will win his home state, and the opportunity of coming out of Iowa having defeated a local favorite could prove tempting.

[jillan]

40. Kerry's got it. They can all save their $$$

Bill Maher was on Larry King last nite. They were talking about Kerry's joke (like there is nothing else to talk about - zzzzz) King said something about how it ruined Kerry's chances. Bill Maher never acknowledged and said that Kerry would be a great President.

Kerry has alot of support.

I believe.

He will figure out a way to rebound from the joke.

Everyone else can just forget it.

Kerry 2008!

[politicasista]

41. For some reason I think Larry is on the Obama bandwagon

He was on there recently and seemed impressed. I do think Kerry will find some way to rebound from this.

[Mass]

48. Larry is in no Democrat's bandwagon. He is a GOPer.

[politicasista]

51. Oh, ok thanks n/t

[Island Blue]

42. Maher also said (responding to a viewer's call)

that he thought Joe Biden would make a great president. Whatever Bill.

[wisteria]

43. In fairness, he was cornered into this. Someone called and suggested

Biden, since he met some of the definition of someone the public should elect as president next time, I got the impression he was being evasive but nice.

[globalvillage]

46. Bor

ing.


Sorry, I fell asleep halfway through the word.

[ProSense]

47. LOL! n/t

[JI7]

49. maybe he has some kind of appeal we don't know about

although it doesn't speak well that he is behind in his own state polls. i really didn't think he would run. as for whether Kerry will run i doubt his decision would be made based on what Vilsack will do.

[politicasista]

50. delete n/t