Shaun from upper-left has it exactly right

[Mass]

http://upper-left.blogspot.com/

Just wondering…

…how many of the pundits, 'strategists' and sundry observers of whatever description who are so dismissive of that Kerry fella's chances of a comeback were equally certain in December '03 that the '04 nomination was completely out of his reach.

And how much, I wonder, how much damage did their inability to pull back from their pre-convention criticism do to his campaign?

I'm not saying he'd win if he ran, or that he should run, or much of anything except that at this point nothing's impossible. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and guess that the odds of John Kerry being our next nominee are at least as good as the odds of American voters electing someone named Obama our next President.

At least.

But anything's possible.

[Democrafty]

1. Absolutely.

The punditocracy is interested in the punditocracy. The failure of pundits to actually represent the desire of voters could really result in a LOT of surprised come primary season.

[ginnyinWI]

2. I'd say he has a better chance than Obama

I still don't think a lot of voters would vote for an AA. Maybe I'm wrong, but there are a lot of hicks out here.

[Dr Ron]

3. But Obama's #2

Latest polls show Obama's moved up to number two among Democrats, well ahead of Kerry.

Of course, at this time before the 2004 election many polls showed Lieberman to be the front runner, and Obama's rise may be temporary due to all the recent media hype about him. After seeing Kerry come back from behind Al Sharpton in the polls in the fall of 2003 it is quite clear that both polls and pundit predictions mean very little.

[globalvillage]

4. It's been Obamarama on CNN today.

Every time I glanced at the TV, there he was. I like him, maybe even as VP, but this overexposure is a bit much. And I doubt it'll be good for him in the long run.

[ProSense]

6. It's been Obamarama and

Hillarymania!

[wisteria]

5. Exactly. Obama is benefiting from the fresh face appeal and good

PR from his speech and book. This will most certainly die down. And you are correct, Lieberman was in second place around the same time in 02 and 03. You saw what happened there.

[ProSense]

7. Here is something being met with skepticism:

http://atrios.blogspot.com/2006_11_19_atrios_archive.html#116405571882849340

Fear of withdrawal!