So how relevant or accurate are "thermometer" readings?

[beachmom]

Because this one that just came out is not a very good indication. Out of 20 leaders, Kerry came in last -- top 3 are Guiliani, Obama, and McCain. As I look at the list, it seems it's based on how the media portrays them more than anything else. The MSM are kingmakers apparently.

Here's the link:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Popular-Politicians-Poll.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[Blaukraut]

1. Bush was 15th?

And John Kerry last? I'd really like to know whom they polled. If these people are part of our electorate, we're in sad shape.

[ProSense]

15. Exactly!

The poll is BS! Clinton 20% behind Giuliani. That's similar to the poll that showed Democrats with a 20% lead as the choice for president in 2008, but the Republicans winning.

[karynnj]

2. I think the key is that they were taken the week after the election

and they were for the population as a whole. Kerry had just gotten intensive bad press. He was likely given very low scores by Democrats as well as Republicans. Bush still has a core of Republicans who will defensively rate him high.

I do agree that the numbers for Obama were very good - but he is the new face and he has had very little bad press - so no strong negatives.

Quinippeac did a very poor job in its NJ polls - sometimes showing Kean ahead. The person heading the effort in my county told me throughout the campaign whet the internal polls said - and they were NEVER that bad.

This does show exactly what you say - it's how the media portrays them. Partly that reflects the desire to tell the pollster the "right" answer. But it shows Kerry has a lot of work to do.

[blm]

3. It's commensurate to how many negative stories are done against them.

Once the debate switches to what they are SAYING as candidates it becomes a different story.

[Mass]

4. Typically, these results are a direct result of ...

- name recognition.
- media buzz.
- positive and negative feelings in the media.
- The buzz THE PERSON generates (preferably positive).
There is no surprise with Kerry at the last place at this point. While Kerry has name recognition, he is basically absent of the media buzz. When people talk about him, it is in negative terms, and he has been pretty much absent since the election (I know I am going to irritate a few here saying that, but, honestly, this is how I feel).

He needs to be more present in the news and to do positive things in order to generate some buzz and these numbers will go up, just like Pelosi has in the last thermometer. You do not generate positive feelings by staying out of the news after a difficult moment. Unfortunately, this has nothing to do with what the person does in the background, but with the buzz that is generated.

So, unfortunately, these numbers have some significance. However, at this point, it is not fatal if action is taken.

I have to say that I still think that what is damaging to Kerry is NOT the joke in itself (nobody who would have supported Kerry fell for that). It is the buzz created by the media and some democrats that the joke is killing his chances. This part is working. People ARE dismissing him (including people who like Kerry) as a potential nominee. So, I really hope actions will be taken (whether he wants to run or not), because at this point, people do not consider him as a leader any more than they consider Gingritch.

[TayTay]

5. What is it that you want him to do?

The work right now is behind the scenes to get ready for the take-over of the Congress in Jan. The Senator was on Faux News a week ago, and then it was Thanksgiving.

What do you want him to do and where? I don't get that part.

[wisteria]

11. I have to say, I agree with Mass. But, I would like him to hire the best PR firm

and have them tell him what needs to done to turn this around. He has worked to hard and to long to have Rove Hillary and the media do him in. The Repubs still play this up, and the media is trying to use this to dismiss him after all the hard work he has put in.This was an all out effort to take him out and they will continue on it until they ruin his reputation. My God, he was voted above the murder, OJ as the biggest turkey. This is just bullshit.
He should of hired a good PR firm before- after the 04 election. If the press can play up the Clinton's and McCain, they can be made to do the same for Kerry.
He needs to out their holding his head high and with some good press to follow-up. No doubt as soon as he shows up anywhere in public they will be ready to pounce. However, this IMO looks worse because it appears his is hiding out until it goes away. Some how he as to own the story and change the ending.
You can read the change in tone on DU alone. All the Kerry detractors have been ready to jump into anything and the "other candidate" supporters are just getting obnoxious.

[politicasista]

6. Interesting analysis

If these are average voters, it also shows that the media is having an impact, which isn't good right now.

[beachmom]

7. I agree, in general, that positive things need to happen.

However, as with celebrities, sometimes the best thing to happen is to go behind the scenes for a while -- people will still bash you and you still get negativity in the media, but over time, people get bored of it, and move on to somebody else. Then, at that point, you can stage a "comeback" -- and, people will think -- "oh, yeah, him. I actually like what he's doing now". Gingrich has staged a bit of a comeback, as a matter of fact, but his negatives are so bad that he'll never be president (since they're real ethical problems as opposed to misspeaking). Bad, tasteless comparison, but . . . Trent Lott proves you can come back from just about ANYTHING. The problem is that we have less time to play with.

I'm just looking forward to seeing Sen. Kerry in action in the Senate -- I think that's key. And that's true regardless of what he decides for '08.

[politicasista]

8. I am looking forward to January and beyond also n/t

[karynnj]

16. An example of this is Gore

I would bet the angry Gore numbers of 2002(?) were likely even worse, but he has regained the points on the Democratic side. I think that any well known person who generates strong reactions will come out high on this - because the other side will be very negative.

I think the reason Gore and Kerry have a chance to recover is that they did not do anything that in truth neither did anything unforgivable.

I agree with Mass that Kerry has gotten almost no positive buzz. The sad thing is he DID do things - but even as he did them the media gave him no credit. Now, he got almost no beneficial press in the primaries with the exception of the Rassman reunion. I suspect that that was so made for TV perfect that there was no way for a skeptical media to counter it.

Joe Lockhart in his comments after the joks actually made a very interesting comment. In saying that Kerry was a bad politician - as identified by playing games - he explained that this did not make him a bad person - actually the opposite. He was a better person and that he had gotten as far as he did because of how good he is.

If, as Beachmom says Kerry comes back, it will likely be by letting people see that he is - and has always been an outsider, incorruptible and as honest as the day is long, while having been inside and being the intelligent, pragmatic creator of solutions for all the key problems. Kerry is the ultimate version of the person who could have been a cool kid - he had everything he needed to be one - but he rejected the opportunity rather than sell his soul. So, he is the best of the uncorruptible outsider and a person who knows well the lay of the land inside.

Judging from comments here the 2 biggest negatives are that they thing he will lose due to lack of charisma and the unfair gaffe prone. (The gaffe prone is unfair but it is his version of Gore's "too angry".) He is given credit for intelligence and character. I think as others get more attention, they will make mistakes or will be seen to have major character flaws. (I predict that honesty will be an issue for at least 2 candidates - Kerry has never had a problem with Russert's video tape gotchas - because he really doesn't lie.

The good news is that neither party has a real knight in shining armor. (Obama is about as close as it gets - but he may be this year's Clark.Who seemed absolutely perfect in the first burst of media seemed as though he was perfect - until he fizzeled. Obama is a star, he is a nice guy - but in 2004 until Ryan imploded he wasn't even a sho -in. His speech was incredible, but he has not been extraordinary on talk shows or on committee. If Obama, Edwards and Kerry are the anti Hillary - he needs to absolutely dominate the early debates - with NO gaffes - no a really tough hurdle for him.

[sandnsea]

10. Direct result of peanut shells for brains

No, these people aren't even the actual peanut gallery - just the shells.

[sandnsea]

9. Condi Rice #4? over Bill Clinton?????

That's as far as I can get with the list. Just... :banghead:

:argh:

[karynnj]

17. Their sample has to over sample Republicans and

Republican leaners - would also explain the Bush result - which is too high given the strongly disapprove numbers in most polls.

[whometense]

12. does anyone know what this is about?

Comment at the Carpetbagger: http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/9169.html#comment-93041

#

It’s not fair, and Kerry clearly deserves better

You know, despite his painful to watch delivery, I would have probably agreed with you until recently. But in the course of my research for my soon-to-be-finished book on energy policy and a global warming solution (and yes, there is one) I discovered that Kerry enthusiastically led the charge to cancel funding for one of the most promising technologies to come down the pike. To read his pompous pronouncements on global warming today, along with his ludicrous suggestions on how to solve the problem, has guaranteed him a special place in my book as an example of how appallingly wrongheaded politicians can be. From now on, whatever slings and arrows Kerry suffers, deserved or not, will not overtax my tear ducts.

Comment by President Lindsay — 11/27/2006 @ 3:29 pm

I have no idea what they're talking about, and so have no idea how the comment might be rebutted. Anyone have a clue???

[beachmom]

13. I know he voted on that "sense of the Senate" that was not

pleased with the Kyoto treaty because it put the U.S. under tougher standards than China and India.

Hmmmm . . . maybe you should ask the poster very nicely which technology he means, because you want to learn more about global warming.

What I read in the New Yorker is that you need "Wedges" to stop global warming. That means MULTIPLE technologies need to be used to stop the emissions, not just one. Seems like this person is a little full of themselves to act like Kerry blocked THE TECHNOLOGY that was going to save us.

[ProSense]

14. Sounds like something

Inhofe would say. Wonder if the person is talking about the nuclear missile defense system?

[sandnsea]

22. Nuclear Reactor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integral_Fast_Reactor

Sen. John Kerry (D, MA) and O'Leary led the opposition to the reactor, arguing that it would be a threat to non-proliferation efforts, and that it was a continuation of the Clinch River breeder reactor effort that had been cancelled by Congress. Despite support for the reactor by then-Rep. Richard Durbin (D, IL) and U.S. Senators Carol Mosley Braun (D, IL) and Paul Simon (D, IL), funding for the reactor was slashed, and it was ultimately cancelled in 1994.

[karynnj]

27. I have no clue either

Do you have any clue who Presidentg Lindsay is? It's kind of hard to believe given Teresa's and John's committment to the environmentr. Does this person have techical credentials?

I would question what technique and what bill it was on.

[Firespirit]

18. Sorry -- I don't buy it.

Bush, Mr. 30%, ahead of Kerry, despite the Rumsfeld sacking?

Condi at 4th place?

Three out of the top 4 places occupied by Republicans, despite the historic drubbing?

Nope. Don't buy it. Quinnipiac did this poll, and in my judgment, their numbers are not always sound. Their polls of the Connecticut Senate primary race were awful pretty much universally, for example.

Anecdotal evidence, yes, but I spent Thanksgiving with my parents, who, despite everything, have been lukewarm towards Kerry, my dad specifically. They both told me that the Fox interview converted them. I know them quite well, and believe me, they wouldn't have said that just to make me happy. That interview had an impact on those who saw it.

I wouldn't sweat this. Kerry has been out of the spotlight for much of the past month due to various reasons -- the joke, the election, the election's immediate fallout, personal illness, and the Thanksgiving holidays. It will not remain this way, trust me. He knows perfectly well that it won't be a cakewalk and he'll have to fight for it. Just have faith.

[wisteria]

26. Thanks for the positive and upbeat message..n/t

[karynnj]

28. Their reaction to the Fox interview is interesting

I think the interview was after this polling - so it was before Kerry spoke out. Quinnipiac"s NJ polls were awful too. (I heard the internal polls because the guy running things in my county told me when I was in doing some calling and canvassing.

If Quinnipiac can't get their own state (CT) right that's poor. It also seems they are very Republicand heavy. The Condi result and Bush result make no sense.

[ProSense]

19. Here is the link, check out the trend:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=990

Also note the score among Repubs, Dems, Indep., etc.

[Firespirit]

20. I wish I had the raw data, but I think I see the problem

Repukes are pretty hardcore negative. 62% rate him below 20.

73% of Dems rate him above 40. I don't know what the breakdown is for the 50-point mark and how many rate him above 50.

The problem is the Indy figure of 33% that ranks him below 20.

I think this poll oversamples Republicans, just based on how the various people rank. It gave Bush a "warmth rating" of 43, when his national approval rating is hovering around 30. There is no frickin' way. That is a horrendous oversampling of right-wingers.

But that Independent number is indicative of the people who listen only to the MSM. They WOULD get a bad impression of him from that. It's recoverable. Independents are notoriously fickle minded.

[ProSense]

21. They are definitely trying to give the impression the smear had

something to do with it. In September, Kerry was fourth from the bottom! And in March, the only people scoring lower were Al Gore (?), Bill Frist and Dick Cheney!

[karynnj]

29. Pretty strange - those numbers are weird

The numbers also make no sense over the rest of the interval - Kerry was better in September than in March - but this goes the other way.

[Island Blue]

23. Where was this poll conducted?

At a GOP fundraising event in NYC? Giuliani, Rice and NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg all in the top ten? :wtf:

[ProSense]

24. This is good:

Remember the article posted here?

Well, look who authored it:

McCain's stock rises

GOP's loss improves presidential chances

By Peter Brown
November 19, 2006

The big winner Election Day wasn't even on the ballot. As screwy as it might seem, the Democratic takeover makes it much more likely Republican John McCain will be the next president of the United States.

That popping noise you might have heard early Wednesday wasn't just Democratic champagne corks; it was the starter's pistol kicking off the 2008 White House campaign.

For McCain, the perfect political storm – Iraq, corruption and the Foley scandal – that handed Congress to the Democrats was far from an ill wind.

Snip..

Simply put, the prospect of Hillary Clinton, John Kerry or Barack Obama in the White House come 2008, with the Congress already in Democratic hands, is likely to be a motivating factor for Republicans.

Snip...

Brown is assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He can be reached at [e-mail]. This commentary first appeared on the realclearpolitics Web site.

[wisteria]

25. Thanks. I think I'll e-mail him a little letter. n/t

[wisteria]

30. I hope you don't mind, I used your links for a response in GD. n/t

[JI7]

31. this being an example of why McCain is popular

so called Dems like Eleanor Clift making excuses for him and insisting he is a good guy. and these same so called Dems being dismissive and snarky about anything Kerry does. fuck them all.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2989435

[MBS]

32. It seems worth repeating this remark of a journalist

-- something which was SO revealing about why certain people get favorable coverage. A journalist mentioned on TV a few weeks ago that journalists like McCain because he's available to them 24/7.
Multiple lessons here: (a) stupid things can affect the opinion of the press corps, and their opinion can be swayed by stupid internal stuff, like goodies they get on the press plane, like politicians reading from cue cards (Reagan), and giving speeches without adlibbing, so journalists don't actually have to listen to what the politicians say, but just use the text for their reporting, like it being easy to get hold of the politician they're covering. (b) McCain has still not received proper vetting. If he has a serious run at the presidency, surely this will have to happen, finally. Believe me, there is plenty of stuff to vet in his case. I also think that hs'a likely to make major embarrassing statements , of a scope that will finally put the ridiculous attention to JK's tiny botched-joke incidenent in much-neede perspective (a single mis=said joke erasing 40 years of military heroism and distinguished public service? Oh, Please. Give me a f______ break).

[beachmom]

33. This article contains a response from Mr. Wade

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/World/The_United_States/Kerry_finishes_last_in_prez_likeability_poll/articleshow/627605.cms

David Wade, a Kerry spokesman, dismissed such polls and noted the senator's comeback to capture his party's 2004 presidential nomination.

"A lot of pundits and prognosticators have lost a lot of dough pronouncing John Kerry politically dead,"he said.





And here's the entire list -- sorry, there's something wrong with this poll. Lieberman is #6?:

1) Rudolph Giuliani - 64.2. (9)
2) Sen. Barack Obama 58.8 (41)
3) Sen. John McCain 57.7 (12)
4) Condoleezza Rice - 56.1 (7)
5) Bill Clinton - 55.8 (1)
6) Sen. Joseph Lieberman - 52.7 (16)
7) NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg - 51.1 (44)
8) John Edwards - 49.9 (20)
9) Sen. Hillary Clinton - 49 (1)
10) N.M. Gov. Bill Richardson - 47.7 (65)
11) Sen. Joseph Biden 47 (52)
12) Nancy Pelosi 46.9 (34)
13) Gov. Mitt Romney - 45.9 (64)
14) Former VP Al Gore - 44.9 (3)
15) President George Bush - 43.8 (1)
16) Sen. Evan Bayh - 43.3 (75)
17) Newt Gingrich - 42 (15)
18) Sen. Bill Frist - 41.5 (53)
19) Sen. Harry Reid - 41.2 (61)
20) Sen. John Kerry - 39.6 (5)

[Island Blue]

34. My thoughts on the bogusness of this poll.

Those of us in this group are extremely focused on the actions of John Kerry. If there is a video available on the internets or if JK makes an appearance on C-Span (or any other program) we watch it intensely, analyze it and discuss it. Many folks here have been lucky enough to see JK in action several times, whether at the TBA Conference, a Faneuil Hall speech, the NH Jefferson-Jackson Dinner or other events in Massachusetts and well beyond.

Not only do we pay attention to the actions of John Kerry, but we pay very close attention to the reactions of others to John Kerry. How many times in this forum have we commented that the man is a frickin' rock star based on crowd reaction? This just doesn't happen with someone who no one likes.

I seriously doubt that Mayor Bloomberg would be surrounded by people and followed down the street like JK has been after several of his Faneuil Hall speeches. I seriously doubt that John McCain would be offered a beer bong by college students.

And remember the "thunderous applause" he received last week at event in Tidewater Virginia of all places? Imagine the reception he would have received if those folks actually liked him. :crazy:

So anyway, I know I'm preaching to the choir here but I hadn't had a chance to vent about this and I needed to.