FOX poll: a year later the election would be tied

[ginnyinWI]

"(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Adults in the United States are evenly split in their current assessment of last year’s presidential candidates, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 44 per cent of respondents would vote for Republican George W. Bush, while 44 per cent would support Democrat John Kerry.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the U.S. Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia. As far as the popular vote is concerned, Bush garnered 51.03 per cent of all cast ballots, with Kerry getting 48.04 per cent.

The poll shows that six per cent of respondents who voted for Bush in November 2004 would now cast a ballot for the Democratic nominee, while three per cent of those who supported Kerry a year ago would now back the Republican."

And there is a table showing who would change their vote:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/9665

Only a tie?? Well, it is a FOX poll--no telling how they asked the question.

[karynnj]

1. This would almost certainly mean a Kerry win

A 3% shift - if uniform across the country would give Kerry Ohio, NM, Iowa and possibly a few other states. From memory - the red states were redder than the blue states were blue. A large part of Bush's advantage was wasted extra votes in Texas, Wy etc.

Also, Kerry loses more to other ad would not vote. We know who the "other" and "would not Vote" people are, they are on every DU threads. In a real election, they would vote, hold their nose, call him a DINO, long for their favorite more liberal candidate - such as Dean or Clark.

[TayTay]

2. So, according to Fox News, 3% have changed their minds

to Kerry. And 86% of those who voted for * would vote for him again. But 6% of those who voted for * would now vote for Kerry.
(Bush loses 8% cumulative of his vote.)

88% of those who voted for Kerry would do so again. Only 3% of those who voted for Kerry would now vote for *.
(Kerry loses 3% cumulative of his vote.)

2% would now become lefty or righty freepers and vote for 'other.'

And 10% have no friggin clue, cuz they aren't paying attention.

Hmmmmmmm.

[karynnj]

3. And oddly, they voted last time!

They obviously used query of last year's vote and took only those who answered. This may under-estimate people who are embarrassed by their vote - some may be more likely to not answer the screening question.

[ginnyinWI]

4. Bush loses 14%, Kerry loses 12%,

But a greater percentage of Bush voters go to Kerry--almost half of that 14%. Of Kerry voters, only a third go to Bush. ( I can't imagine why anyone would do this, but I'm biased!)

[Island Blue]

5. Who are the 3% who said they would switch from Kerry to Bush?

Have they received massive head injuries during the past year? I'm a little worried about these folks, whoever they are.

[karynnj]

6. I suspect that they are self reported "Kerry Voters"

who switched to Bush. There is no real good way to prevent lying - I suspect they were Bush voters scamming the study.

Kerry has had relatively little news in the MSM. What he has had has made him basically at least look dignified.

Bush on the other hand has had a series of problems - ranging from Iraq to Katrina.

The data for this may have been collected before Kerry's Iraq statement or Libby's indictment. Kerry would clearly win if the election were today - in spite of almost no coverage.

[Vektor]

7. Bullshit: while three percent of those who supported Kerry a year ago....

...would now back the Republican."

They pulled that straight out of their lying asses.