all of your "what-ifs" about Iraq answered--Atlantic Monthly

[ginnyinWI]

This is from the Dec 2005 issue. The title is "If America left Iraq" (The Case for Cutting and Running). It illustrates the big lie--that American troops are needed for Iraq to succeed.

You can't get this online without a subscription, so I'll quickly list his hypotheticals and summarize his answers. Written by Nir Rosen. This is a guy who lived in Iraq for 16 months with Iraqis--speaks Arabic and really seems to know what he's talking about. He is a fellow at the New America Foundation.

If we were to pull out of Iraq:

Would it ignite a civil war?
No, it's already going on. Withdrawal would help stop it.

Would the Sunnis then seize control?
No, they're too weak. And they mainly want revenge on Americans anyway.

Wouldn't the insurgency increase?
No, it would weaken. We, the Americans, are their primary enemy.

Would foreign fighters be empowered?
No, they are a small group, and the Iraqis are turning against them. If they went outside of Iraq, they would be hunted down; they only can thrive in a failed state.

Wouldn't the Kurds secede?
Yes, but they will do that anyway, eventually. And it makes a lot of sense for them to do it.

Wouldn't Turkey invade the Kurds?
They seem to have no interest in doing that. They are members on NATO and don't want to get in trouble.

Would Iran invade Iraq?
No, the Iraqis won't allow it--they are very nationalistic.

What about creating a secular democracy in Iraq?
It's just not going to happen. The Iraqis don't want it.

What does history teach us?
The British failed in Iraq. The Sunnis and Shiites just want to be left alone. The Kurds want to be a separate country.

What should the U.S. do to help Iraq?
Leave as soon as possible.


The Democrats are right on this, being in the real world. The Republicans are utterly deluded or outright liars.

[TayTay]

1. This is pretty much what Sen. Kerry said in his Georgetown speech

When he was stating what is actually going on over there. The Senator was at great pains to note this and then to think through to the inevitable next steps. (What comes after withdrawal? What do we owe Iraq and how do we make the new Iraq a friend and ally of America?)

[ginnyinWI]

2. I agree

It looks like he's in consult with people who really know what's going on there. All the more reason to trust his leadership.

I also suspect a Kerry-Murtha relationship; Murtha got a more extreme reaction because of who he is--and maybe that was the idea. (?) It certainly has put the issue front-and-center in the media and forced the bushies to react.

[TayTay]

3. Kerry and Murtha have a long history

This tickled something in the index of stuff that's in my mind. So I went and looked up Murtha. The two of them first worked together in 1986 when both were appointed as observers to the Philippine elections that pitted a remnant of the Marcos regime against Corazon Aquino. They have orked together on various things since. (Murtha was a consultant to the Dem campaign last year. He is the go-to guy for Dems for all things military.)