Why does a good economy not feel that way?

[TechBear_Seattle]

Why does a good economy not feel that way?
By Kevin G. Hall, Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is strong when measured by macro-statistics, but sluggish wage growth, rising gasoline prices and interest rates, and the gloomy background music from the Iraq war are overshadowing the good economic news in the minds of most Americans.

To be sure, corporations are raking in strong profits, which are driving the stock market toward its all-time high. Unemployment is near historic lows. Even a slump in home sales in parts of the country hasn't slowed consumer spending significantly.

But when pollster Gallup recently surveyed Americans, 64 percent said the economy was getting worse. Only 33 percent described it as good, 40 percent as fair and 23 percent as poor. And that survey was taken March 13-16, before gas prices leapt more than 30 cents a gallon to a national average of $2.92.

"When we talk about consumer confidence, or rating the economy, we're talking attitudes here. And if they're down on a lot of things in America, they'll be down on that, too," said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.

Pollsters, he said, "are picking up decadelong lows" for citizen views about the White House and Congress, fueled by the unpopular war in Iraq and other issues. These views cloud feelings about the economy.

The article continues at http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002983848_economy10.html

[PassingFair]

1. Who are you going to believe?

Fox News, or your OWN LYING EYES?!

I live in Michigan, the economy STINKS here.
No jobs. Low wages. The works.

[ShortnFiery]

7. If you're part of the Investor classes, things are GRAND!

Even though, perhaps, 50% of us have some money in stocks, it's not *significant* like those within the the upper-tiered Investor Classes (Individuals/families having over $350,000 portfolio) can draw upon.

Therefore, I quote the great social scientists, The Dead Milkmen: Life is shit, Life is shit, the world is shit, the world is shit ... this is life as we know it ... this is life as we know it (under the * Administration). :wow: :grr:

[Roland99]

2. "unemployment is near historic lows".....Bullsh*t!!

[BlueEyedSon]

5. "unemployment is near historic lows"... in CHINA!

[Roland99]

8. No kidding. Here's Table A-12 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (8.2%)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers...8.2%.

[Cassius23]

10. Off topic but has to be said..

I love you for using the BLS data. It is there, factual and very difficult to refute. I actually did a post on the nature of unemployment at DU using that page and the Census.

[Roland99]

12. I assume you're familiar with economist John Williams?

:)


http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/

[sam sarrha]

3. the 33% were just glad they at least had that minimum wage job...

[Trouser Trout]

4. Only the top 1% are better off than they were 6 years ago

The rest of us are worse off, much worse off.

[bowens43]

6. The economy is great

if you're wealthy. A strong market for the most part ,has little to no effect on the average Americans life.

[MikeNearMcChord]

9. Some of these "bonehead" economists and "out of touch"

morons,er I mean "experts" maybe ought to go out of their cubicles and gated communities and visit America sometime. Perhaps a major pay cut to their salaries might wake them up.

[DaveJ]

11. The economy is great for some people...

...military contractors, oil men, war profiteers, and people who hire slave labor. It's horrible for people who want to better the world we live in.

[earthside]

13. Built on Phony Money

The main reason, in my opinion, is that the marginal improvements in the economy are perceived as just that, marginal ... it's all built on phony money.

If Bush and the radical Republicans are not booted out of office soon, by the time they leave in 2009, they will have nearly DOUBLED the federal debt. They have pumped up the economy by printing more money, not by increasing production or by helping to create good paying jobs. People sense that and it is also substantive in the low wage jobs and consumer debt working Americans have been forced to take on.

Take a look at my posting this morning at www.Earthside.com. The ballooning Dow chart is just scary, but I think us average Americans are going to be in for a real serious episode of inflation ... tough times ahead.

[DaveJ]

16. That's a good way to summarize it...

These statistics can be manipulated by people in power. So they are becoming less reliable. What matters more is quality of life. It would be very simple to measure. I'd include:

Hours worked vs time off
Those who are happy with their jobs
Availability of health care

We don't see these statistics being touted much in the media because I'm sure they are dismal.

[Hubert Flottz]

14. I'd LOVE to see a chart on what things cost about 1998 and the ...

prices of those items now. Including utility bills, college, drugs, food, gasoline, state and local taxes, day care and so on.

[newportdadde]

19. Would also be good to see product sizes and how they have decreased.

[TechBear_Seattle]

21. Just do your price comparison by the "standard unit"

Ounce, pint, "per item", whatever. That's where you would be headed anyway. After showing that the per ounce cost of Haagen-Daas has doubled over the last 10 years, you can add insult to injury by showing that the size of the standard container has been almost cut in half.

[Hubert Flottz]

25. And the wage and benefit decline...

Also the number of underemployed and unemployed Americans, who have exhausted unemployment compensation benefits.

Never lose sight of the fact that Enron style bookeepers are great at book cooking for the GOPers.

[raccoon]

28. Such as the rotisserie chickens I buy at a chain supermarket.

The price hasn't gone up, but the chickens have gotten smaller.

[johnaries]

15. they cherry pick economic indicators,

just like they cherry picked WMD intelligence.

[acmejack]

17. Don't like the numbers?

Alter the formula until you get the desired result, just as the Iraq intelligence was fitted to the policy.

[newportdadde]

18. It can depend on your situation.

I have a coworker who recently left for a decent raise in pay(over 10%), for her its going great. For myself in the IT industry since I'm still here and employed its not terrible, its not great either but this past year I had the best raise of my career which helped make up for my worst raise 2 years ago of 1.9%.

I have a small amount of money in an oil EFT, its up 70% since Summer of 2004. My 401k hasn't been great because except for commodities I'm bearish on the market right now and I'm in conservative stuff.

I've benefited some from Bush's tax cuts and child credit, I can honestly admit that. At the same time my state and local taxes have gone up, property tax is up 40% in the past 5 years, house value is not up that much either to justify it. So for me personally I consider the two to be a wash.

What has really hurt my family and I think a lot of other families is inflation, specifically inflation in energy, food, healthcare and finally house prices.

We got lucky and got our house in 2000, when a 30 year was over 8% the price was lower because of the interest and we were able to ride the refiance train all the way down, now at a 15 year 4.75% loan. I feel for people who didn't hit the timing like we did, housing is really overvalued even in the midwest. When I see 1400ft
'townhomes' *cough* duplexes *cough* going for 120k I feel pretty damn lucky snagging 2000ft in 2000 for 123k.
Like I said we got lucky, the housing market is killing others. For some who are dumbasses(ARMS when interest is at a 30 year low or those who don't want to wait and save a down payment and do the 100% finance well I feel less sympathy).

Food has absolutely skyrocketed. The items you buy are smaller and the prices are up. Even if you shop at Walmart(yeah I shop there, for many things they are cheaper) the prices are going up pretty rapidly.

Gas - well what do I need to say here, I got married in the summer of 99 when gas was near a buck, its ridiculous now.

Healthcare - my health premiums have DOUBLED in two fucking years. I mean DOUBLED.. give me a freakin break.

Healthcare alone ate my raise in 2005. Between Gas and Healthcare I no longer have the 'FUN Money' I use to have. I think a lot of Americans are in a similar boat but have borrowed via credit card or home equity to keep themselves in fun money.

In closing I believe we are in a period of stagflation, wages are not increasing but prices are. The American consumer probably in an attempt to hang onto life during the tech boom of the 90s are borrowing out of their ass. Its logical to conclude this cannot continue forever and we have some type of nasty recession, loan default realestate collapse similar to the bubble popping back in the 80s coming in our future.

[DaveJ]

24. You are in a profession that is difficult to enter...

No offense intended, really, but some people still get lucky. People in I.T. who run the systems of an entire company can get paid well; after all their jobs often can be compared to executive level given the control they have over a company's technological framework. The issue is what is how the typical worker doing at a given company.

Due to the exclusive nature of most I.T. jobs, we currently are not living in a world where many have the freedom of choice to become an I.T. professional, unless they are willing to move to another part of the country, often a semi-rural area, where someone is needed.

Actually I.T. probably is easier to enter than, say, becoming a software engineer. It is sad that people cannot pursue higher level fields that would greatly benefit the world.

[newportdadde]

32. Well I am a programmer but your right the barriers are high.

My company for instance has had a hiring freeze for 5 years and I know of other companies with similar freezes. I got in pre Y2k.

[Joe Fields]

20. Rhetorical question: If the economy loses jobs naturally, at a rate

of approximately 160,000 per month, and the Bush administration has only matched or exceeded that number in two months out of his entire presidency, then how can the unemployment figures the government touts be correct?

Answer: the numbers cannot be correct, unless the government changes the model, or formula that gauges unemployment statistics.

The Clinton administration got credit for creating an average of 225,000 jobs per month for more than forty consecutive months, yet unemployment figures were never this low.

[tjwash]

22. Our economy is strong, just like...

...Enron's stock really was worth 120 dollars a share.

[nickinSTL]

23. why doesn't it feel good?

It does, if you're a multimillionaire.

For those of us struggling to pay the bills, the economy SUCKS.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

26. Because what they're telling us is total BS.

[greenpagan2004]

27. AMERIKKKORNFEDERATE GOTHIC

[myrna minx]

29. It's a giddy time for multi-millionaires and billionaires, but

not for most of us. I guess that most Americans are realizing that "trickle-down" economics is a bunch of bullsh!t.

[TechBear_Seattle]

30. We knew it was manure back in the 80 when it was called Reaganomics n/t

[anarch]

31. well, it does lead me to have a lot of personal Consumer Confidence

I'm pretty confident I won't be buying a blessed thing this year, outside of what little bit of food I can afford after I pay my rent and some of my bills (only the really crucial ones).

Reaganomics/Bushonomics/whatever you wanna call it...a guaranteed method of destroying the economy! Unless of course you are part of the privileged overclass, in which case everything is totally great.