Indo. family w/bird flu story broke April 19-why are we just hearing

[babylonsister]

about it? I realize deaths are now involved, but was the media just not interested, or is now a better time to release this story?

http://avianflu.typepad.com/avianflu/2006/04/indonesian_fami.html

April 19, 2006
Indonesian family infected with bird flu

A family of five was admitted to Abdul Moeloek hospital in Bandurlampung on Sunday, all suffering from suspected bird flu.

The family -- Abidi, the husband and his wife Sarmawati, both 52, and three of their six children, Septi, 12, Fitri, 8 and Putra, 5 -- are now being treated in an isolation room. The five have all demonstrated a high fever and a cough, symptoms of the deadly bird flu.

Sarmawati has been treated at the hospital since last Thursday. Her other three children had been diagnosed with bird flu earlier. Mohtar Rozi, 15, died March 31, and Betharia, 19, died April 4, while Bakhrudin, 26, is still being treated at the hospital.

more...

[Avalux]

1. Info was being gathered, and the cluster has now enlarged -

Since the initial report, two more family members have been infected (7 altogether) and 6 have died. It is the largest cluster we've seen so far and there isn't a clear bird source of infection as of yet. It is possible family members caught it from each other. The virus hasn't mutated (GOOD) and the area is being monitored to see if more cases occur outside that cluster - which would be worrisome.

So the story has changed over the past month or so and become more important in the scope of things.

[oscar111]

2. ocean barrier idea

see my plan... no one in the americas has to get sick. Ocean crossers can easily be spotted, and stopped by our Navy.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=222x8348

[babylonsister]

5. So do you think all air travel should be halted as well? I don't see

that happening realistically.

[MercutioATC]

15. Ocsar, this just won't work...(again)

Let's just stick with ONE issue for now...the fact that it's unenforcable. There's NO way you're going to get the entire Western Hemisphere to close their borders. Even if you did, there's not enough manpower to enforce it.

Combine that with the sledgehammer effect that it would have on the world economy, and it's a complete no-go.

[acmejack]

3. This story was in the BBC international edition

I recommend their RSS feed, you have to put up with the english football and international cricket scores but you get the news.

[babylonsister]

4. My dh reads the Jakarta Post every morning; he's the one

who told me he read about this story quite a bit earlier than we're hearing about it.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

6. I posted this link

earlier. But it doesn't mention names. Do you think it is the same family?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=212775&mesg_id=212798

[Avalux]

7. Yes, it's the same family.

largest cluster we've seen so far, and the source of infection is as of yet unknown. Nothing to worry about though unless the virus were to spread outside the cluster. :hi:

[TallahasseeGrannie]

8. And according to the article

that has not happened.

[Avalux]

9. No it hasn't.

And the virus has been analyzed - no mutation to signify it's changed to a form that could spread easily from one person to another. In all likelihood - these family members lived in close proximity and were caring for the ones who got sick first. They breathed droplets from coughing and sneezing.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

11. Does this make it any more likely

that it will mutate further?

My nephew works for Aventis (sp?) and they make vaccines and he tells me that the most worrisome thing will be when it goes from humans to pigs and then to humans?

[Avalux]

12. No. There's no reason to think it will.

The vector for H5N1 is birds - what we are watching for is this virus to combine with another form of influenza A (like regular human flu) and form the virus that would cause a pandemic. This combination would give H5N1 the ability to spread easily through the air from one person to another. Pigs have their own form of influenza A - remember swine flu? And they could figure into the equation somehow, but that's not the model at this point.

We really don't know what's going to happen with this particular H5N1 virus. The more birds that have it and the more it spreads around the world, the more chances it has to mutate. But that doesn't mean it will, so we do surveillance, watch and wait.

[MercutioATC]

17. The CURRENT vector is birds.

...and that vector isn't especially troublesome because H5N1 in its present state doesn't transmit from bird to human or from human to human easily.

The concern is that H5N1 will mutate into a strain that IS easily transmitted between humans. At that point, the bird vector wouldn't be an issue. Although the virus has the potential to mutate into this form on its own, every human (or swine) infection increases this chance.

[Avalux]

18. H5N1 is a bird virus - avian influenza A.

Humans have their own influenza A, as do pigs. Influenza A is a very common virus among many different species of animals.

The concern with H5N1 is antigenic shift - the reassortment of genes between bird and human flu to create the virus that would cause a pandemic. Humans would be the mixing vessel.

Pigs can get avian flu also - which could mutate with their form of influenza and eventually spread to people - but that route is not the most likely at this point.

[MercutioATC]

19. Isn't that what I said?

:shrug:

[MercutioATC]

16. ANY human or swine infection increases the chance of mutation.

The reason pigs are a concern is that many human viruses also thrive in swine. If a swine that has a human virus is infected with an non-human virus, there's an increased chance that the viruses will mutate into a strain more easilt transmitted to humans.

[babylonsister]

10. Jeeze, I don't know. The dates don't match at all. The story I

referenced reported deaths in early April and was posted on April 19, while your story is later (after a pork dinner which was ingested on April 29?), and the same location isn't mentioned twice.
Speaking of that pork dinner, most if not all the residents I believe are Muslims. I find it odd they were eating pork (though their religion wasn't mentioned). :wtf:

Edit to add:

http://www.joshuaproject.net/peopctry.php?rop3=105625&rog3=ID

What do they believe?
As a result of Islamic traders from the Middle East, Islam made its way into Sumatera by the end of the thirteenth century. Islamic influence weakened the culture, and local chiefs eventually lost their titles and power. The Lampung Peminggir are followers of Sunni Shafi'i Islam, which they consider stricter Islam than the Maliki, Ambali, and Hanafi subgroups of Sunni Islam. Even so, there are still those who believe that the power obtained at several graveyards is sacred, like the sacred well of Pitu. They also often place symbols, such as the cross with betel-nut chalk above the door, window, or other entrances to the house. They believe that this symbol can ward off evil spirits such as the kuntilanak, especially when there is a woman advanced in her pregnancy in the home.

[Pugee]

13. This site has daily info on outbreaks.

It included the news that pigs tested positive for the bird virus last week. There is also mention of the family today. Click on the map icons, or scroll down and click on a specific event.

http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert.php?lang=eng

[Avalux]

14. Interesting - thanks.

I will bookmark the site. And yes, pigs could figure into this somehow. They too can get influenza A - and if H5N1 (which wasn't verified in the article) is isolated, it will be worrisome.