Here's My Theory on Zarqawi

[Left Coast Lynn]

He was killed in an air raid by American forces.

It is a major victory.

I'm glad he is dead.

It's not just the latest in a series of claims he is dead.

Criticize * for the lead up to war.

Criticize * for the incompetent execution of thw war.

But let's not be foolish and try to wash away a very positive news event.

[sweetheart]

1. My theory on murdering a child and a woman

It is a tragic war crime.

Lets not be foolish and accept murder in any guise.

Sick people call murder, "victory".

[The Magistrate]

12. The Laws Of War, Sir, Are Not So Simple As You Seem To Believe

The Geneva Accords recognize there will be many circumstances where non-combatants will be harmed in the exection of military actions. Actions which may harm non-combatants are subject to a balancing test, in which the immediate military gain of the action is weighed against the prospect of harm to non-combatants. It is quite certain a decent case could be made that the immediate military gain of eliminating an enemy commander outweighs that harm done to non-combatants here, and that is so even making allowance for the fact that Zaeqawi was nowhere near as major an element as he was made out to be. Further, when a combatant takes up position in which he cannot be assailed in without a signifigant liklihood that non-combatants will be injured if he is, he has himself committed a crime of war, and the onus for injury to non-combatants if he is engaged rests with him. An excellent case could be made that this provision applied against Zarqawi in this incident.

[sweetheart]

16. The test is larger

"the elimination of saddam does not outweigh the death of 24xx soldiers and 40,000 civilians"

No, the test is a fail.

Add another woman and a child to the list, put zarqawi on there too, a man who's name
none of us would know if the earlier war crime of aggressive war were not perpetrated.
All subsequent action is hereby part of the very wrong greater crime, that now includes
imprisonment without trial, and extroadinary extraterritorial torture and rote murder
by some US forces of civilians with impunity. Fail. Yes it is that simple.

[The Magistrate]

18. You Are Of Course Free, Sir, To Believe As You Wish

But the above is the application of the laws of war to specific military actions.

[sweetheart]

26. The invasion of iraq was a specific military action

We are in year 3 of that invasion. The military command were fools,
and this has become a disgrace. The original target, the "new and improved"
reason for invasion after WMD's was shown to be a deliberate deception.

A gang of gunmen break in to a store, and stay there for 3 days. On
day 2, the hostages kill one of the gunmen in the middle of the night.
On day 3, the gunmen kill hostages with impuntiy, as there are many,
on day 4, they hunt the one that slit their ganmember's throat and
to kill him, kill all the hostages around him.

Was the man really a criminal who slit the gunmen's throat? Was the
entire beginning, when the gunmen took the hostages, not the real point
here, and for this elephant in a room, the new attempt to turn it in to
a legitimate act, by repeating the same device that got us there to start with.

And what, pray tell, the patriarchal attitude, that the little girl and her mother's
lifes where not equal to zarquawi. That little girl was the future president of iraq,
she was the greatest leader of 1000 years to bring peace and future prosperity to iraq.
Now she will reincarnate again, just like we all will, and in each incarnation,
we are equal, and even though you are a magistrate, and can pretend that micro-warcrimes
are moraly clear inside a macro-warcrime that remains unprosecuted, leaves us in a
moral swamp, no matter which of us is right.

We're patriarchal assholes the both of us, slugging it out on a mound of stinky shit,
the right to justify a death, rationally, as deserving because it was standing near
zarquawi. Our moral swamp will gladly have its day, pray it be soon, or all that we
love will be scorched as well.

"Dear Lord Jehovah Allah Om Ma Rama Ra, please stay thy hand."

[The Magistrate]

34. My Sole Point In This Exchange With You, Sir

Is what the application of the Geneva Accords actually is in cases such this recent event. Whether or not something is a crime is a legal question, not a moral one. Neither of these things is a very good guide to the other. The question of whether injury to a non-combatant in a military action is a crime is the same whatever the age, sex, or any other condition of the unfortunate person might happen to be.

[sweetheart]

68. About those geneva accords

Article 48 of the 1977 addition to the Geneva Conventions, Part IV, states “The parties to the conflict shall at all times distinguish between the civilian population and combatants and between civilian objects and military objectives and accordingly shall direct their operations only against military objectives.”

Article 50 is even more explicit: “The presence within the civilian population of individuals who do not come within the definition of civilians does not deprive the population of its civilian character.”

In short, if insurgents are mixed up with civilians, you can’t call in air strikes, period. Anyone who does should be hauled before the International Court at The Hague.

http://www.berkeleydailyplanet.com/article.cfm?issue=06-09-06&storyID=24361

[sweetheart]

39. rendering death and forever, ee i love you

We're here now with our gun,
meting out justice bombs for everyone,
no matter that war isn't fun,
white man's burden's hit a home run

Deplorable warmaking men i abhore,
pissing with bombs, ghastly undone,
talking of justice, with bombs some more,
when will it stop groundhog rerun.

Summary helicopter death raining down,
falling with justice, killing everyone,
Peace without life, policeman in town,
death and a prison, sorrow tears run.
Ancient forever remembers a crime,
incarnate again, again death sublime.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

23. The Geneva whats?

I'm slightly off-point here but I thought those were officially quaintified.

[Name removed]

56. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MADem]

22. Two women were in that house, and an eight year old girl, fwiw NT

[sweetheart]

42. Thank you, 2 women and a child

who's lives are now wasted like all the others the wastes mete out with their thunder.

[cali]

51. I take it that

you've expressed yourself equally fervently regarding the children who were killed in bombings carried out by al-Zarqawi. Yes, the admin set this hideous war into motion, but that hardly exonerates those like al-Z., who day after day target civilians.

[Name removed]

52. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

58. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[cali]

60. You're absolutely correct. I'm on a mission.

I'm on a mission to promote critical thinking and clear exposition. I'm on a mission to deflate rhetorical bombast. I don't give a shit whether it comes from the left or the right. Oh, I'm also a big fan of careful reading; I haven't defended the strike against al-Z or said his death was necessary, though I certainly think it was necessary that he be removed from the field of battle. As I stated in my last post, I would have preferred that he'd been captured. You're still wrong about al-Z being trained by the US in Afghanistan. For pity's sake, the guy was born in 1966, and didn't leave Jordan unitl he was 24.

Finally, your prose is so muddled that you do your argument no favors. Why not learn how to write a proper sentence? You're obviously bright, and you're certainly passionate. It would be well worth your time.

[Left Coast Lynn]

64. Nice post n/t

-

[sweetheart]

66. Afganistan was/is a training ground

People were going there all through the 90's to get training in insurgency. Obviously
he went there on holiday. Everyone that was mujahadeem and a developed, US-started, islamist
insurgency that has blown back at us bigtime, never happened.

"hough I certainly think it was necessary that he be removed from the field of battle."

This is the point where we differ. You are endorsing the patriarchal frame with this comment
and are apologizing for it softly softly. "removed" is called murder, and you are behind
the war frame. War involves slavery and is never justice, never, ever, especially when a
trial would be so much more effective.

That is the nit we're picking back and forth here, yes. You're giving the bombing the
benefit of the doubt, and i'm saying it was just another pointless waste, and LBN will
have for the next years until the US leaves the scene of its crime, the stories of
how zarquawi's descendents carry on the insurgent war.

Israel has been using this heliomurder policy for years now and has totally failed to achieve
any civil ends with it. Why is it suddenly remotely accepted as appropriate given
its long and deep track record of failure.

Sorry the english is so unclear, its murky and muddled with upset at warcrimes, indeed.

[The Magistrate]

2. It Is Not A Major Victory, Ma'am

Zarqawi controlled only a very small portion of the irregular violence currently wracking occupied Iraq. Less than one in twenty of the partisans in the field are foreign jihadis, and he did not even control all of those. His death will not bring any dimunition in the violence, and in the short term, may well increase it, for there will now be competition for leadership within the faction he did head, and the coin of that competion will be frightfulness and the publicity which it may obtain.

[wtmusic]

25. It is a Major Propaganda Victory, Sir

and validated the war on terror by proving there were indeed one-legged al-Qaeda elements in Iraq which must be dealt with by launching massive invasions.

[panader0]

3. How is it a "major victory"? There are thousands willing to take his place

What about the innocents killed in the raid?

[Igel]

38. But it doesn't matter if there

are thousands willing to take his place. The question is whether there is one able to take his place, and if that one actually succeeds in taking it.

This requires that the one have sufficient information to manage whatever Zarqawi managed, sufficient prestige to command respect and obedience from the established organization (or create new one), and will to power to supress any dissent and dispatch competitors. It's likely there are such; whether one rises to the top is pointless to speculate about. In the meanwhile, members his group will seek out other groups and join them. Let's hope he was a power-hungry control-freak.

Of significance importance is the death of his 'spiritual advisor' (in keeping with the long-standing imam/emir model, theory+praxis approach); granted, such hate-spewing imams are a dime a dozen in that area, but notoriety counts for something. I wonder if al-Rahman (a blasphemous name that nobody seem to much care turns out to be blasphemy) was a member of the Muslim Clerics Association.

As for the innocents (the child, at least, why we almost must assume that women are spineless, will-less creatures that can't participate knowingly is beyond me): Keep in mind there's a reason the Geneva Conventions say that billeting troops among civilians and using civilian facilities are war crimes. It's immoral to have human shields, whether at gunpoint or because you're billeting with them; it exposes civilians to risks. The usual moral calculus is to say that if a man knows he's a target and he associates with civilians, then any civilians deaths involved in taking him out are his responsibility. The morality and injunctions in the Geneva Conventions cuts both ways; it condemns us when we break the conventions, and provides cover when we abide by them. Arguing that US soldiers must not only abide by a moral code, but an exacting and hyper-idealistic moral code nowhere codified (apart from some religious texts, under one interpretation) while others are exempted from any code whatsoever takes partial and biased non-judgmentalism to a ludicrous place.

[Webster Green]

4. Major victory?

Heh!

You can't be serious. There will be plenty more to fill his shoes.

We are well hated in the world right now.

[LisaL]

9. Or should it be "there will be plenty more to fill his shoe"?

How many legs did this fat guy who got killed actually has?

[lectrobyte]

5. Who's trying to "wash it away"? Seems like this administration

lies so much, even when they don't have to, I don't blame anyone for some skepticism. But I'm still not seeing the "washing away" here.

[NNN0LHI]

6. Did you have a theory about Saddam's "Winnebagos of Death" too? n/t

[MADem]

30. Heh, heh--that was pretty funny!!! On point, too!

:thumbsup:

[ima_sinnic]

7. yes, murder is always a "positive news event"

especially when capturing and putting on trial the person who was murdered would have deflated the dreams of "a martyr for the cause" in a real big hurry. It would have shown that the U.S. follows the rule of law and also that Zarqawi really was someone big and not just a Rumsfeld-Rove-DOD-BushCo-Orwellian legendary propaganda creation.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

8. There has been so much disinformation about virtually every aspect of

this invasion and occupation that I find it impossible to evaluate any event like this, especially when shrubco controls all the information coming out.

Pat Tillman heroic death story.

Jessica Lynch heroic rescue, "Rambette" story.

Mission Accomplished.

"We've found the weapons of mass destruction!" (Bush)

"Last Throes" (times X)

Massacred wedding party

etc. etc.

So while I don't entirely discount the possibility of the official account of events, who "Zarqawi" was, and what significance he had, and the manner of his death and what it means, bearing some resemblance to truth, I think it's just as likely if not more so that the truth is substantially different.

[radwriter0555]

10. THIS is a photo of zarqawi....

And it's not the same guy who got dead this past week.

So that kind of tosses it all out the window on a "do-over"....

[eleny]

11. Would you like fries with that?

[Scout1071]

13. Why not capture and put him on trial?

Isn't that the American way?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not losing any sleep because he is dead. BUT, I think that we need to stand up for American ideals. And we don't execute people here without a trial and a verdict of guilty.

[gordianot]

14. Here is my theory.

Nothing is simple anymore. We have no reliable news media and are forced to seek foreign sources I don't give a shit what happened at that damn Lacrosse team frat party, I do care about the young men and women being killed in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as what we are doing to them by having them there.

Great they killed a terrorist, but we cannot even get the straight news on that event.

[rucky]

15. Why do you believe the Pentagon this time?

what is your bullshit threshold, and why did this one pass the test?

[rocktivity]

17. Zarqawi's death WOULD be a "positive event" if it were TRUE

that he really was an Al-Qaeda mastermind or kingpin--but he wasn't.

The Bush monarchy admits to bribing Arab journalists to write stories about Zarqawi which made him SOUND like an Al-Qaeda kingpin. Al-Qaeda says they severed their relationship with him months ago--in fact, they're most likely the ones who ratted him out. And Zarqawi's body looked much too intact for him to have been under two 500-pound bombs and tons of rubble.

Since Zarqawi did not lead Al-Qaeda or the insurgency, his death will affect neither. My theory is that Zarqawi was killed some other way and the bombing was scripted to boost Bush's poll numbers.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Left Coast Lynn]

29. Killed how

and by who?

[rocktivity]

44. I just don't find his being found wounded, trying to get off a stretcher,

being turned over to the Iraqis, dying later, and being given back to the U.S. for an autopsy to be any more plausible than his being bombed, crushed under rubble, and coming out with his face and fingerprints intact!

But how he died isn't really the point: the fact that Zarqawi was more of a Sammy "The Bull" Gravano than a John Gotti is.

:headbang:
rocknation

[treestar]

19. Giving in to freeper determinations of what is crazy and what it is

foolish to question doesn't do much, either, IMO.

[Left Coast Lynn]

20. Name me one prominent Democrat denying it is Zarqawi.

Or are they in on the conspiracy, too?

It's not all that simple to simply capture him. It's decision in the field. Be glad he's dead.

[LisaL]

21. Yea, that proves it. Right then and there.

[Left Coast Lynn]

24. My challenge stands

Name one.

[Finder]

Considering most of them believed the propaganda leading up...

to the war...it really doesn't matter does it?

[LisaL]

35. Exactly. I could ask for names of prominent democrats

that stood up to Bush before the war. How is that for a challenge?

[Left Coast Lynn]

46. Deniis Kucinich, for one

Ted Kennedy. Russ Feingold. There are more.

[Left Coast Lynn]

45. So they're all duped?

Every one of them, with the access and intellegence they have, are fooled? But you know the truth?

[Finder]

53. The truth rarely relates to policy...

regardless of the party in power.

[TexasProgresive]

31. I don't really care one way or another but

how in the world would any prominent Democratic leader be able to make a positive or negative ID? All they have to go on is what the Pentagon tells them - same as us.

[LisaL]

37. That is also very true. They could show me any fat guy and say

it Zarqwai.
I wouldn't know any better, would I? And neither would any prominent democrat.

[MADem]

27. Let's not be foolish and forget that the Monkey's very acts of war

caused the crazed Zarqawi to go on his rampage in the first place. There would have been no murderous deeds, no beheadings, no blowing up of mosques, had not the Monkey embarked on a revenge-laden war for Iraq's oil.

Positive news event?? Get real. The Monkey shit on the carpet, and now he's cleaning up one of his messes. It's nothing more than that.

[Igel]

41. Oh?

First, Zarqawi was a thug for a decade before 2003. He was just busy imposing his version of a sane society on a much smaller group of people.

Second, nobody caused him to go around killing innocents, whether it was through imposition of his own (ok, Rahman's) brand of Islamic-inspired fascism, or since 2003. Oh, wait, they're the same thing.

If Zarqawi's only bad because of what he did after 2003--obviously with his brain hardwired for remote-control from DC--then killing him in 2002 wasn't a problem. If he was a thug in 2002 and killing him in NE Kurdistan would have been a good thing--and condemnation of * for not having done so implies as much--then what he did after 2003 is just a continuation, and no new 'cause' is needed. What you have is greater opportunity; but since he, in part, is responsible for creating that opportunity ...

Why people issue apologia for Zarqawi shall forever remain a mystery, I guess.

[MADem]

43. Oh, horseshit--he wouldn't have been in IRAQ had we not jinned up

a war for oil there. There's no "apologia" here. Read what's written and don't make assumptions about what people think.

No one is saying that he wasn't a thug, or an asshole, or better yet, a murdering asshole. But the blood he spilled was facilitated by the actions of a Monkey in the WH, who started a bullshit war for OIL and created the playground where Z did his thing.

[gulliver]

28. Dems should use it against Bush. They are blowing it again.

The Zarqawi killing can and should be used to pound Bush. Should we be going negative on this? Well, Bill Bennett told us we shouldn't, so there you have it.

I'm waiting for one Dem to point out that Zarqawi would have been nothing but for the invasion of Iraq. Bush made Zarqawi. Do we thank him because he gave us fifteen minutes off the rack he put us on? Do we allow Bush to use Zarqawi as an excuse to give his Iraq debacle more time? Are we afraid that if we say anything negative about Iraq right now we'll be party poopers?

Do we really think this is a "very positive news event?" I don't. Zarqawi was one guy whose influence was already starting to flag. He was a strategic problem for global al-Qaeda. He's now gone. So ... freakin ... what. Iraq al-Qaeda is under new management and better controlled by bin Laden and Zawahiri. Yay! Very positive news? Unlikely. It's a chance for al-Qaeda to get along better with the Iraq insurgency.

Kerry basically did what you say we should. Celebrate Zarqawi's death. Validate Bush's little victory romp. Give the little feller some credit. Throw the Dems some "bring home the troops" lines. No wonder we lose all the time.

[applegrove]

32. Saw the CNN special on him and he was a sociopath. Which means

he was uniquely effective in insurgency and getting the sick, lost, immature, & spacey youth to blow themselves up and take thousands and thousands of civilians and soldiers with them.

That is no loss at all.

[peacetalksforall]

33. Do you realize what you just said? Think. We have spent billions

on gathering intelligence about terrorists. We have wasted thousands of lives trying to get intelligence. Here we have a kingpin of knowledge and we kill him? Any smart country would capture him and obtain intelligence from him. It was one of the most stupid actions of this White House and military.

It is absolutely stupid and a betrayal of trust.

We're not watching a movie, here. This is real stuff. And we threw away an opportunity. Do you know why? Because this WH no longer believes in trials, judges, and juries. This country is killing our infrastructure of our Justice system.

And then we cheer his death?

Use your head. It is idiotic to cheer.

[Left Coast Lynn]

47. I don't know the reality of the field

or how plausible capture was.

Questioning that is quite different than floating conspiracy theories.

[peacetalksforall]

49. Their mission should have been to take him alive at all costs, which .

should have not been that costly.

Sorry for the bluntness. I am angry at this country and this is one reason.

How many lives have been lost trying to gain intelligence?

How many billions of fuel have been spent flying the captured from one country to another?

How much have we spent for the prison and torture of the prisoners?

How much scapegoating have we done?

How much have we ruined our reputation in the world?

How many future deaths of innocents are in store for us?

It was imbecilic to kill him.

They are inept if the couldn't capture him alive - even with the imbedded Israeil intelligence officers that are in Iraq and all the UK M's.

They wanted him dead and we should not shout for joy.

It was a travesty to kill him.

[Finder]

36. Do you also believe he was the link between 9/11 and Iraq...

since he is part of the WHOLE propaganda effort.

[niyad]

40. here's my theory-- you shouldn't believe ANYTHING this lying, corrupt

gang of murderers, thugs and thieves tells us, as they have been proven liars time and time and time again.

stop drinking the kool-ade.

[RandomKoolzip]

48. Yay! We got him!

Awesome!

Now where's my fucking health care?

[AtomicKitten]

50. Not comfortable with celebrating killing anyone.

Even these faux strawman public enemy #1 types.

[boston bean]

54. .

:popcorn:

[upi402]

55. Are you so sure this is the answer OP?

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
-Twain

Michael Berg had his head sawn off by this sub-animal. His own father has shown a spiritual level that has rebooted mine. He asserts that this cycle of revenge never brings anything but more killing.

I now think he's right. I have changed my mind about Zarqawi's death. Bring him to trial and jail him in isolation for life. Mr Berg could be our next Martin Luther King, I don't know. But I do know that revenge has not helped the Palestinians nor the Jews. Look at Iraq, do you think the killing will lessen with this photo op killing? Really?

[AccessGranted]

59. A Major Victory for Who and Why is it Positive: Read This!

Why is that the person that Bush designated as the Global Poster Boy for terrorism (bin Laden) is on the FBI's most wanted list, but there is nothing about 9/11. Also unless I'm missing something I don't see al-Zarqawi's name on the FBI's most wanted list.

Here's the link to the FBI's most wanted listed:

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/terrorists/fugitives.htm

Here's the text of why al-Zarqawi is wanted:

"Al-Zarqawi is sought in connection with numerous terrorist attacks and continuing terrorist threats in Iraq. Al-Zarqawi has been convicted in absentia in Jordan for his role in the murder of a United States diplomat and for a bombing attack on the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq."

Here's the text of why bin Laden is wanted:

"USAMA BIN LADEN IS WANTED IN CONNECTION WITH THE AUGUST 7, 1998, BOMBINGS OF THE UNITED STATES EMBASSIES IN DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, AND NAIROBI, KENYA. THESE ATTACKS KILLED OVER 200 PEOPLE. IN ADDITION, BIN LADEN IS A SUSPECT IN OTHER TERRORIST ATTACKS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD."

How did you arrive at your conclusion that we should celebrate the death of this man. Can I see your homework please. I am not being critical of your opinion, I'm just wondering how you arrived at your conclusion.

Also, it seems to me that the FBI is trying to distance themselves from that entire connection:

See the following article (it was also up on Yahoo News this weekend for about two hours and taken down):

FBI Says No Hard Evidence Connect bin Laden to 9/11
http://www.rinf.com/columnists/news/fbi-says-no-hard-evidence-connecting-bin-laden-to-911

Ex-Bush Official Exposes 9/11 as Inside Job:
http://www.rinf.com/columnists/news/ex-bush-official-exposes-911-as-inside-job

Here's the link to the FBI's page: http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten/fugitives/laden.htm

On a final note, there was a 25 million dollar bounty on al-Zarqawi's head. Who gets it? I'm sure that because the soldiers who caught him are government employees that they are ineligible, but why don't they take that money and buy the soldiers some body army or contribute it to the care of the our soldiers that are returning to the states maimed, missing limbs, disfigured and mentally ill.

I try to do my homework and not speculate, but things like this make me crazy. Am I turning into a conspiracy theorist?

[Left Coast Lynn]

61. He was #2 on the list

before he was killed. So much for the notion (not you) that he wasn't considered a big fish until he was killed.

"Al-Zarqawi is sought in connection with numerous terrorist attacks and continuing terrorist threats in Iraq. Al-Zarqawi has been convicted in absentia in Jordan for his role in the murder of a United States diplomat and for a bombing attack on the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq."

That's a plenty good reason to feel no pain at his demise.

[bridgit]

62. having missed the opportunity to take Zarqawi out multiple times...

bush is in no sense off the hook, but rather more susceptible for playing politics with the lives of people friend & foe alike again imo

[fedsron2us]

63. So farewell then Zarqawi

I could never work out whether you had one leg or two.

E.J.Thribb

[bridgit]

65. yup, buh-bye...

[eridani]

67. Why are you happy about an event that will surely cause--

--more Iraqis and more American troops to die?


http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/061206P.shtml

But haven't we been through all this before? Haven't we had our turning points, turned our many "corners," passed all those "milestones" again and again? When Saddam's sons were killed in a shootout at their safe house, when Saddam was plucked from his "spiderhole," when endless "key lieutenants" of Zarqawi were reported rounded up or killed, when several elections took place? Now, Zarqawi has been plucked from his "spiderhole" tooÉ well, whatever it was, under whatever circumstances those were.

As is typical of absolutely any story out of this Pentagon, the details of the first version of the Zarqawi death are already beginning to blur and shift. Did a child die in the rubble? Was Zarqawi really alive in that devastation? Did American soldiers find him and try to administer first aid, as a military spokesman reported? Or did American soldiers beat the wounded terrorist to death, as CBS reported a witness saying Saturday? Or could our troops have kicked him repeatedly in the chest while shouting for him to reveal his name, as Hala Jaber, Sarah Baxter, and Michael Smith report in the London Sunday Times? Did he mumble a few unintelligible words and quickly expire, as the first U.S. military reports had it? Or did it take him, as other witnesses reported, an hour and fifteen minutes to die after Iraqis living near the house in which he was hiding pulled him from the rubble? Was he really turned in by someone in his own organization, as some American reports have had it, or is that just a nice little piece of U.S. disinformation meant for whatever is left of his movement? Was he tracked down by Jordanian intelligence or turned in by some part of the Sunni resistance which loathed his tactics? We don't know, but stay tuned.

In the meantime, "cautious" administration officials, hardly capable of containing their glee, sensing an approval-rating bump in the polls (however brief), are trying to manage a situation that may prove especially dangerously for them. They may soon find themselves caught in the tangles of, to coin a phrase, their own self-fulfilling propaganda.

Let me, on this, be neither conservative, nor cautious. Every now and then, you have to rely on history as your guide. And hasn't this happened to us enough? Don't we know that, in every turning-of-the-tide moment in Iraq, it soon turns out that, despite the hoopla, our tide was ebbing and someone else's invariably rising? A number of experts are already suggesting that Zarqawi's death will have "minimal impact" on the Iraqi resistance and may, in fact, serve to strengthen it by removing the most divisive and detested oppositional figure in the country; or perhaps, as the superb independent journalist Nir Rosen suggests in a thoughtful obit at the Truthdig website, Zarqawi's death "was the greatest advertisement for his cause" and the path he blazed into sectarian warfare is now unstaunchable.