Are the attacks upon Hezbollah really an attack upon Iran?

[kentuck]

After all, Hezbollah has been known as a proxy of Iran for many years. And is this really extending the war in Iraq to a much wider war over the entire Middle East? Is Israel doing this at the bidding of George W Bush? Are these latest attacks by Hezbollah and Israel upon each other simple diversions for the Bush failure in Iraq? We should not overlook the Iran connection to Hezbollah in this latest conflagration. Can you predict the next step in this escalating war? Will Iran be involved??

[Massacure]

1. The next step is Israel's move.

Israel gave Syria and ultimatum and Iran is standing behind Syria. If Israel attacks Syria, Iran will become involved. I really hope israel doesn't escalate this though.

[kentuck]

2. And if Iran becomes involved...?

then what happens?? What does Bush do? Bingo!!!!!

[Massacure]

4. What Bush does depends on what Iran does.

What if Iran cuts their 3,900,000 barrels of oil production by one quarter or one half? World demand is about 85,000,000 barrels. I wouldn't be surprised if a 2% cut in supply would spike oil $10-15 bucks. Bush couldn't do a damn thing about that.

I don't think Iran will go so far as openly fight. They may smuggle weapons and cash, but they won't openly fight.

[ixion]

3. the chances are slim, because BushCo won't back a ceasefire

which is pretty much giving the rogue state Israel a green light to get their Armageddon on.

[SledDriver]

6. They'll try to draw in Syria first...

The US already tried to do that awhile ago, with "coalition" troops attacking "near" the Syrian border - big bombing campaign against "militants" some time ago? Syria didn't take the bait. So now Israel will taunt them until they are forced to defend themselves, which gives Bushco the green light (along with Israel) to roll over Syria. Leaving Iran by itself.

[no_hypocrisy]

5. Not yet. But history has demonstrated that things can spiral out of

control. In the dog days of 1914, the son of the Archduke of Austria-Hungary (the monarchy) was assasinated while touring Serbia by an anarchist who wanted Bosnia's independence from Serbia (which really was a satellite of Austria-Hungary). Because a series of treaties of alliances between European countries brokered by Bismark (ironically designed to PREVENT future wars), now Germany was fighting on behalf of Austria. OK, that made sense, Germany signed the treaty to support Austria-Hungary.

However, as in the potential of Iran joining this fight, the United States ended up getting involved in the fracas of World War I (despite incredible popular support to remain neutral) because the German Navy sunk the Bristish passenger ship, the Lusitania, which was carrying American citizens (and allegedly contraband to Britain, which made the attack allowable in the eyes of the German Navy). The Germans became the original "terrorists" and Woodrow Wilson jumped without reservation into the fight. So therefore, the United States was indirectly fighting on behalf of a Bosnian anarchist who had no connection whatsoever with American commerce, security, or government.

In war, shit happens. Iran could be drawn into this mess without much rationale and it will be near impossible to remove it once it's in.

[thethinker]

7. Yes they are trying to draw Iran in

If they can't, they will do a Bay of Tonkin incident. Then we will bomb the hell out of Iran just like the neo cons want.

This has all been in the plans for months (really for years). We have read about it. Why is anyone surprised.

[kentuck]

8. Bingo!

I think you have the "secret" US plan for Iran.

[Lefty48197]

9. Israel may bomb Hamas and Hezbollah targets inside Iran and Syria

but don't expect any kind of invasion. Even the upcoming invasion of Lebanon will not last long.
They have been bombing bridges, highways, railroads, and airports in order to keep the militants from escaping. I expect a "police sweep" through the militant strongholds inside of Lebanon.
I don't expect Syria or Iran to consider a full war against Israel. They've been there, done that, gotten their asses kicked, and suffered for decades because of it. They want no part of a war with Israel.