WI_DEM
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Thu Aug-03-06 11:55 AM
Original message |
Marist Poll: Clinton would lose New York to either Giuliani or McCain |
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Edited on Thu Aug-03-06 11:56 AM by WI_DEM
While New York democrats favor Hillary R. Clinton over Al Gore for the Democratic nomination (42-24 percent, nobody else gets over 6%)she might have a hard time carrying traditionally Democratic New York against either Rudy Giuliani or John McCain--the two front-runners for the GOP nomination according to most polls.
*Giuliani beats Clinton 52-43 percent. *McCain is ahead of Clinton 48-46 percent.
Democrats have carried New York by well over a million votes since 1992 in presidential elections, so it is too soon to tell if this would last. Both Giuliani and McCain get over a quarter of the Democratic vote and are well ahead among Independents in match-ups with Mrs. Clinton.
www.maristpoll.com
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bullimiami
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Thu Aug-03-06 11:57 AM
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Ken Burch
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Thu Aug-03-06 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
3. what a deeply eloquent response. |
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Right up there with the Gettysburg address.
Well said.
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jobycom
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:01 PM
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7. I liked it. Accurate, to the point. Said all that needed to be said. |
Ken Burch
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:23 PM
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16. Is there any reason to assume that the Marist poll, |
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which as I understand it has been pretty reputable in terms of NY polling, would be deliberately stacked against the junior senator?
I'm just saying that if you're going to argue that the poll isn't accurate, you're obliged to provide some evidence to support the claim. Shouting "bullshit", emotionally satisfying though it may be, is not a rebuttal.
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jobycom
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:43 PM
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Not the poll, the article, or the OP summary of it. |
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It claims Giuliani and McCain would beat her. McCain is tied with her, leading by 2 points in a poll statistically valid only to within 3.5% (according to the poll). SO the poll shows her trailing only to Giuliani.
And I'd call BS to the implication of the article and OP, that she would have trouble in New York. The poll doesn't show how any other candidate would compare to Giuliani, other than Republicans in the Repub primary. The headline of the OP implies that Hillary might not be the best candidate to beat Giuliani in New York, but the poll shows nothing of the sort--doesn't even address the question.
I'd also question the method of the poll. A poll with a string of questions on a series of theoretical matchups has its own inherent bias, often depending on the order of the questions, since order of candidates named, or matchups of candidates, affect the way people respond. A simple head-to-head question gives a better indication of true voter opinion. It's like a bracket--people make one choice, and tend to stick with their early choice even as circumstances change.
So, I think the slant of the OP title is misleading, the poll analysis is misleading, and the poll itself is questionable.
But "bullshit" says roughly the same thing, and takes less time to type.
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Ken Burch
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Thu Aug-03-06 01:54 PM
Response to Original message |
26. Thanks for the elaboration. |
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You've actually made a far better case against the poll than the original response did.
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bullimiami
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
18. because it doesnt make any sense. new yorkers arent stupid. |
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giuliani was a lousy mayor. worse than lousy. he is going to run on his response to 9/11?
mccain is a fake. a rightwing hypocrite. he panders he waffles he hugs bush he is full of it.
hillary is the real deal like her or not, like her politics or not. she is tough, honest, confident and a democrat.
most new yorkers arent stupid and they dont easily vote republican.
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ronnykmarshall
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Thu Aug-03-06 01:27 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
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I hope that was just as well thought out to meet everyones approval.
:sarcasm:
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AX10
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Thu Aug-03-06 11:58 AM
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The Democratic Presidential candidate in 2008 will carry New York by a million votes or more, just as it has in the last four elections.
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SaveElmer
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:00 PM
Response to Original message |
4. I would be willing to bet...at this point... |
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Both Guiliani and McCain would poll even better against any of the other Democratic possibilities...
I would also bet, that these numbers would turn around very quickly in an actual campaign...
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jobycom
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:00 PM
Response to Original message |
5. With McCain, that's a tie. With Giuliani, he's got stronger roots in NY |
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Anyone would have trouble beating him in NY.
As for McCain, a two point lead is a tie in a poll, especially two and half years from the election.
And it doesn't show any other Democrat beating either Giuliani or McCain in NY, either.
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ShortnFiery
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:01 PM
Response to Original message |
6. How about NONE of The Above. |
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Those three are truly pathetic choices for President, but anyone's better than the embarrassment we have in the office now. :cry: :(
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FreeStateDemocrat
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
9. Right, a very good chance none of the above will be on Nov '08 ballot |
SaveElmer
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:03 PM
Response to Original message |
8. Funny how they never poll on other Democratic candidates... |
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Edited on Thu Aug-03-06 12:04 PM by SaveElmer
Or any other Republican candidates other than McCain and Guiliani...
Always Hillary vs. one of those two...
Had they done so I believe we would have seen the following results...
Hillary would best any of the other Republican candidates by a wide margin...
Hillary would be doing better against Guilian and McCain than any of the other potential Democratic candidates...
They do these to get headlines...its a nice juicy story that means nothing!
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KurtNYC
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
11. And they seldom poll Jeb Bush |
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Whom I fully expect will run in 2008.
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SaveElmer
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
12. The one national poll I saw on Jeb... |
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Showed him losing to Hillary by like 15 points or something
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KurtNYC
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:06 PM
Response to Original message |
10. Hillary already beat Rudy |
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Rudy lost so badly that he pulled out of the race with 3 months to go. His numbers were plummeting upstate and he was already losing badly in the City so he pulled out.
The more they saw of Rudy upstate, the less they liked him.
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WI_DEM
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
14. According to all the "pundits" 9/11 changed Rudy's reputation |
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We shall see if that is the case.
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KurtNYC
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #14 |
17. Here is another thing that changed Rudy's reputation |
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Edited on Thu Aug-03-06 12:44 PM by KurtNYC
I don't think that will play in Peoria.
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Lasher
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:11 PM
Response to Original message |
13. This might be relevant |
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This is from a 4/23/06 Strategic Vision poll: 20. If the election for United States Senate was held today, whom would you vote for if the candidates were, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat or Rudy Giuliani, the Republican? Rudy Giuliani 44% Hillary Clinton 41% Undecided 15% http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newyork_poll_042806.htm
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AX10
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
15. That's a GOP polling firm. |
bullimiami
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
20. this already happened and giuliani tucked his tail and ran before it |
Tierra_y_Libertad
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Thu Aug-03-06 12:48 PM
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19. *Shrug* I won't vote for any of them. |
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If the Dem bosses are dumb enough to trot out a warmongering DLC'er in 2008 like Hillary, I'll be looking elsewhere.
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Bake
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Thu Aug-03-06 01:24 PM
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21. I doubt Rudy will run for President |
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He has waaaaaay too much baggage. The potential campaign ads showing Rudy in drag are just the tip of the iceberg. His behavior with Judy Nathan will certainly offend the so-called religious right. His stance on abortion will further enrage them. He ca't exactly call himself Mr. Family Values. What he gained, if any, in New York he'd certainly lose elsewhere. I can't see him surviving the Puke primaries.
Bake
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ronnykmarshall
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Thu Aug-03-06 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
23. or Hillary for that matter. |
samsingh
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Thu Aug-03-06 01:32 PM
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24. how can so many dems be so misinformed to vote for McCain |
GreenArrow
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Thu Aug-03-06 01:35 PM
Response to Original message |
25. Guiliani maybe, McCain, no |
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Edited on Thu Aug-03-06 01:57 PM by GreenArrow
Consider the Lieberman "kiss float"...then picture a McCain hug float. Old boy would flip a gasket quicker than you could say "Mission Accomplished".
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Tue May 07th 2024, 10:20 PM
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