Warfare or bust - or is there an alternative?

[McKenzie]

Serious question because we are in one big heap of shit right now.

The peaking of the world's hydrocarbon energy supply and the absolute primacy of hydrocarbon energy as THE engine of constant, economic growth and as a mechanism for maintaining dollar hegemony, means we are at a crossroads. The situation is now dire; either use force to prop up the hydrocarbon-based economies, and the US currency, or it's game over. Unless, that is, we are prepared to consider a complete volte face as regards the way we operate our economies and are prepared to accept that we might not be able to live the way we currently do if we move away from a hydrocarbon-based economy. Hydrocarbon energy, particularly oil, is a prerequisite for maintaining our economies and, in turn, our standard of living. BTW, I include the Brits in this anlaysis - we Brits have participated in Iraq because if the dollar sinks we will probably sink too.

There's a lot more to it than my simplistic commentary. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to infer two things:

1. The peaking of the world's hydrocarbon supplies is now upon us.

2. The absolute primacy of hydrocarbons as the basis of our economies suggests we can only keep running those economies as we currently do by securing the last of the oil by using force.

The world is at a tipping point - we are either going to see a transition towards a post-hydrocarbon economy (with a bit of grief probably) or we are going to end with a world that is very different to what decent people would like; a very few nations having a choke hold on the remaining hydrocarbon supplies and the totalitarianism that is a corollary to maintaining that choke hold. There might be a way out of course. If there is it's going to require us to completely change course economically and for nations to start talking to each other. Otherwise, I can't see a future that does not require constant use of the military and that means keeping a very pissed off civilian poulation under control...by whatever means necessary.

There are signs of hope. People are starting to talk about the issues associated with declining hydrocarbon supplies. Last year there was a conference titled "Petrocollapse". Here is a link to a recording of the proceedings; around seven hours (100 m/bytes of mp3 files in total) of discussion on the issues.

http://www.petrocollapse.org/

Which way will it go? I'm not entirely sure. All I would say is I am glad I have had over 40 years of a reasonably, good life. I feel sorry for people much younger than me because they might not enjoy anything like the reasonably, good life I've had. As I say, there are signs of hope but it's 50:50 imho.