History of Early Primary question

[Bitter Cup]

For those of you who have a lot more political history than I do I have a question. Basically, how often has the EARLY primary frontrunner, or the person predicted to get the nomination before the primaries actually won out through the primaries to become the party nominee?

I'm not counting sitting VPs who are essentially handed the nomination.

My subjective memory seems to recall a number of early frontrunners falling on their face either through scandal (Hart) or a bad performace etc. But I'd love a more objective perspective.

Was Dukakis or Clinton the pre-ordained nominee? Seems like Kerry was far from a lock till the Dean Scream (bogus though it was). Others?

[Bitter Cup]

1. Bump in hope of some answers

Let me ask another way for those who remember.

Was Carter the generally accepted front runner prior to the NH Primary or Iowa caucus?

Was Reagan in 1980?

Was Dukakis, Dole, or Clinton?

I hear so many talking about how McCain or Hillary is the Obvious choice this far out it makes me wonder how often such is proven out.

If I remember right prior to the 2000 race most people wouldn't have considered W a snot bubble let alone a national candidate until TPTB stepped in in SC and trashed the hell out of McCain and suddenly people were saying "GHWB has a son?"

[JHB]

2. Actuall, in 92 Clinton WAS considered the front-runner before Iowa...

...and after, too, even though Harkin won. But he had the biggest bankroll, and he charmed the campaign press corp.

[Bitter Cup]

3. Clinton had been the key note speaker in 88 at the convention right?

kinda like Obama was in 04. Has that historically been used this way or was that an anomoly?