Here it is: Pilot disorientation in the clouds, like JFK Jr.

[patcox2]

Same thing happened in similar weather about 1/4 mile from my house a few months ago. A twin engine piper cherokee flying at a couple thousand feet suddenly spiraled out of control and broke up in the air, pieces strewn over my neighborhood.

For this plane to hit this building it had to come down from above. No way it was flying down the street between buildings and then takes a quick turn.

There was supposedly a low ceiling. I bet the pilot lost it higher over the city, just the same way JFK Jr., did (it happens all the time) and came down and hit that building.

Thats my theory, anyway.

[MadMaddie]

1. A plausible theory it is....

[WilliamPitt]

2. Mechanical failure

Helicopters are pretty complex machines. If the Jesus Nut on the main rotor let go, or if a bird flew inhto the back rotor, that'll do it.

[RobertSeattle]

4. And might have been trying to crash land in river.

[Reverend_Smitty]

6. the river is only a few blocks away

[Cassandra]

13. A block away, actually.

And across the street from a friend's apartment (I just emailed her). I'm 13 blocks away; didn't hear a thing.

[Atman]

8. It was NOT a helicopter

"Multi-engine fixed wing small aircraft."

.

[WilliamPitt]

12. Thanks

They were saying "helicopter on tv while I watched.

[Reverend_Smitty]

3. that's probably what happened...

witnesses are saying that they saw the plane lose control before impact. The weather is crappy in NYC today so I could see that happening

[longship]

5. Being reported that plane was under VFR.

Which would coincide with your speculation.

[Atman]

7. There was an eight-mile visibility!

CNN reported the ceiling was about 1800 feet, I think. I'm not sure how a plane got so low around all those skyscrapers. It didn't even appear to hit on the more open riverview side of the building.

[flyarm]

9. real nasty weather..and low ceilings and foggy...this is not

terror shit people!

this is an accident..pure and simple!

NY news just said not a terrorist anything!!

fly

[karlrschneider]

22. 1800 ft. cig, 8 mi viz.

Easy peasy VFR wx.

[patcox2]

27. Where's the info from? NWS?

Thats going to be accurate as a general picture of the area, but you know that when there are low showers scooting around the ceiling can lower pretty quick in a small area and then come back up. A summer day with puffy cumulous and 15 mile vis has 0 vis inside the clouds.

[karlrschneider]

29. I checked it at my DUATS a few minutes after it happened.

...

[bdamomma]

10. thanks for clearing all this up.

[flyarm]

14. of course NY'ers are scarey no matter what..NY news says

not in anyway an act of terrorism..

NY news getting a report of 2 dead..

and that is prob 2 who were on board aircraft..

fly

[aquart]

20. I hope we're scarey. I am so furious right now I could scream.

I want to know why we did not know immediately what aircraft it was and who was in it.

I want to know why we don't know wtf is flying over my city!!!!

They have just proved to me that any aircraft at any time for any reason can do what it damn well pleases and we won't know a thing till the bodies are on the ground.

Thanks for the security!

[karlrschneider]

31. What would you suggest, outlaw aircraft?

:eyes:

[calimary]

42. Post of the Day!

Hate to go Machiavellian on ya, but I hope one or more of the Dems are reading this...

I suspect it'll have all kinds of useful repercussions, mainly based on your angry statements.

First of all, if I were a New Yorker, I might be jumpy anyway, just BECAUSE. For a New Yorker, 9/11 happened just down the street. It's personal, and they can say with the greatest authority to all speculators carrying on with their "WHAT IF it happened here" with - "it DID happen here!"

Second, it might well make more than a few people think about the whole NORAD business. Um... they're scrambling fighter jets all over Christendom - after this? Um... and they didn't do that on September 11th? WTF? It will be an unpleasant reminder of what was NOT done then. There will be a few excusing it for being done now - "oh, well, they didn't know at first... it was the right thing to do..." but as this pans out and becomes more clearly a freak accident, there will be a few minds that shake loose from that assumption. They, and a few of us who are more cynical, will look on this as ridiculous overreaction - symptomatic of entirely misplaced priorities and poor management/leadership.

Third, it may further inflame New Yorkers who think back to all that Homeland Security money going to protect some tumbleweeds in Wyoming while NYC, with its prominent landmarks and potential targets a lot more tempting to terrorists than frickin' tumbleweeds, was left begging. Many of them will make the logical jump from there - to the many republi-CONS currently occupying the majorities in both houses of Congress, who could have made some adjustments in that but chose instead to rubberstamp another splatting cowpie from the bushies.

Fourth, let's not forget all those New Yorkers who happen to have friends and family in other states, some of whom may be motivated to switch their vote from "r" to "D" because this makes them mad on their loved ones' behalf.

And fifth - as YOU point out here, it's a reminder that we're NOT any safer, after all. After all the money spent, after all the legislation passed, after all the new "safeguards" "implemented," after all the rights purged, after all the warfare and resulting unnecessary deaths. Man, aquart - you put it BEAUTIFULLY. Nobody knew squat about squat until we had flaming wreckage and bodies on the ground.

Oh, but he's keeping us SAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-AAAAAAAAAAAFE... Vote GOP... We ALL want more of this, don't we?

[BootinUp]

11. I don't understand how they get a license if

they can't read and fly by the instruments!!!!

[karlrschneider]

23. An instrument rating is NOT necessary to fly clear of the clouds.

This plane was not in the clouds.
EOM

[Brazenly Liberal]

15. Pilot could have had a stroke or a heart attack

A witness says she saw it come down from above very steeply. Something went suddenly wrong, apparently, so my money is on the pilot having a heart attack or stroke or other massively disabling event.

Can't rule out the possibility of suicide, though. Not terrorist suicide, just one guy who wanted to go out in a blaze of glory. I doubt this one, but it has to be considered.

[patcox2]

16. More on spatial disorientation.

spatial disorientation as a result of continued VFR flight into adverse weather conditions is a regular cause of fatal airplane accidents. According to literature found in most FAA approved flight training books, a pilot's inability to see the horizon leads to spatial disorientation. The inner ear may give the pilot the impression that the plane is turning when it isn't. It takes many hours of instrument training for a pilot to be able to fly in IFR conditions

[flyarm]

17. very grey sky right now..and low foggy like weather..not full fog..

but low condensation type fog..very grey...and rainy..

fly

[karlrschneider]

26. "condensation type fog"??? Is there another kind?

:eyes:

[brentspeak]

34. Cranky?

[karlrschneider]

35. Actually, I do get cranky when people post ridiculous crap.

Sorry, I'm just like that.

[brentspeak]

38. Well, uncrank, and have a soda on me

:beer:

[karlrschneider]

45. I'll uncrank with a beer.

:D

[BootinUp]

18. The horizontal indicator

is not really that hard to use is it? IANAP.

[karlrschneider]

24. That is possible with very low visibility and/or at night.

Neither applies in this case. You don't lose the horizon over a city full of large buildings.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[karlrschneider]

28. Legally yes but very very stupid to attempt to do so at night

over water.

[brentspeak]

33. What I don't understand is why it's legal for someone who isn't

instrument-rated to fly in conditions which pretty much necessitate relying on instruments. Or, why are pilots who are only trained for visual flying conditions allowed to fly at night?

[karlrschneider]

36. Well, if it were up to me, they wouldn't but they don't let me make the

rules. ;-)

[dailykoff]

39. REPEAT: Visibility was 8 miles the night JFK Jr. died.

Thank you.

[karlrschneider]

21. A cherokee is a single engine aircraft.

The ceiling was 1800 feet, higher than any building. I think your theory is full of holes. Sorry.

[patcox2]

25. Oops, it was a Bechcraft Sierra, crashed in Manahawkin, NJ.

My theory was based on the initial descriptions of a low ceiling.

But we will find out soon enough.

[karlrschneider]

30. A Sierra is also a single engine plane.

...

[patcox2]

32. I stand corrected.

The FAA has not finished that investigation, either, but it seems pretty clear on that crash.

[patcox2]

37. "plane flying at 800 feet when it made a radical turn and crashed"

According to FAA. Witnesses claim to have seen it at the point it "lost control." That rules out the spatial disorientation, then, if they did see it lose control and it was visible at that time.

So this "radical turn" was either intentional or accidental or health related.

Any ideas?

[dailykoff]

41. Remote control?

WTF is a plane doing flying at 800 feet over Manhattan, anyway?

[Cassandra]

44. Headed for La Guardia and turned the wrong way?

There are now lots of helicopters flying around.

[calimary]

43. My husband, who's a pilot (among other things) points out that

there is some very hairy and capricious air movement in places where you have a lot of high-rise buildings or other similar obstructions clustered closely together. It's like flying through canyons. VERY tricky even for experienced pilots. Might have been a factor in this case also. His first response was like a few here - "sounds like what happened to JFK Jr."

[Marie26]

40. But it was already off the flight plan.

I don't know, I tend to think this wasn't an accident. No, no proof at all.