Krugman: Repubs May Be Headed Toward Their Katrina

[BurtWorm]

http://select.nytimes.com/2006/10/13/opinion/13krugman.html?hp
Op-Ed Columnist

Will the Levee Break?


By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: October 13, 2006
...

The key point is that African-Americans, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic, are highly concentrated in a few districts. This means that in close elections many Democratic votes are, as political analysts say, wasted — they simply add to huge majorities in a small number of districts, while the more widely spread Republican vote allows the G.O.P. to win by narrower margins in a larger number of districts.

My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that because of this “geographic gerrymander,” even a substantial turnaround in total Congressional votes — say, from the three-percentage-point Republican lead in 2004 to a five-point Democratic lead this year — would leave the House narrowly in Republican hands. It looks as if the Democrats need as much as a seven-point lead in the overall vote to take control.

...

But what’s that howling sound? Every poll taken this month shows the Democrats with a double-digit lead in the generic ballot question, in which voters are asked which party they support in this election. The median Democratic lead is 14 points.

And here’s the thing: because there are many districts that the G.O.P. carried by only moderately large margins in recent elections, a large Democratic surge — one only a bit bigger than that needed to take the House at all — would sweep away many Republicans holding seats normally considered safe. If the actual vote is anything like what the polls now suggest, we’re talking about the Democrats holding a larger majority in the House than the Republicans have held at any point since their 1994 takeover.

So if the Democrats win, they’ll probably have a substantial majority. Whether they’ll be able to keep that majority is another question. But be prepared to wake up less than four weeks from now and learn that everything you’ve been told about American politics — liberalism is dead, whoever controls the South controls Washington, only Republicans know “the way to win” — is wrong. (Are we seeing the birth of a new New Deal coalition, in which the solid Northeast takes the place of the solid South?)

...

[BurtWorm]

1. continued

The storm may yet weaken. The Iowa Electronic Markets, in which people bet real money on election outcomes, still give Republicans a roughly 40 percent chance of keeping control of both houses of Congress. If that happens, will it mean that Republican control is permanent after all?

No. Bear in mind that the G.O.P. isn’t in trouble because of a string of bad luck. The problems that have caused Americans to turn on the party, from the disaster in Iraq to the botched response to Katrina, from the failed attempt to privatize Social Security to the sudden realization by many voters that the self-proclaimed champions of moral values are hypocrites, are deeply rooted in the whole nature of Republican governance. So even if this surge doesn’t overtop the levee, there will be another surge soon.

But the best guess is that the permanent Republican majority will end in a little over three weeks.

[Erika]

2. I will never forget our citizens begging for help in a natural

disaster, and our government ignoring them. Never.

Our Secretary of State was shoe shoppin in NYC, Rummy was watching a ball game, and W was on vacation/McCain kissing.

[texpatriot2004]

4. Me either, these evil people will let the young and old, American

citizens die in the streets...

I will never forget it as long as I live. It was horrifying and shameful!

[aquart]

9. George was eating cake.

[texpatriot2004]

3. May they get the help they gave to Katrina victims nm

[AspenRose]

5. What goes around, comes around.

If not in 3 weeks, eventually.

Count on it; it's a universal law.

[LaPera]

6. When my man Krugman speaks, one of the very few, I listen!

Only a big October surprise might change things, bombing Iran?

WE'VE GOT TO GET OUT THE VOTE!!

[nam78_two]

8. Why are you one of the very few?

I listen :)-I love Krugman...
He doesn't seem very popular in the lefty blogosphere these days-but that might have more to do with TimesSelect....

I like KO and other heroes of the lefty blogosphere, but I will never forget how Krugman was one of the few criticizing Bu* back when he had a 85% approval rating.
All these people like Andrew Sullivan and Mickey Kaus who now when Bu*'s approval rating is 33%, criticize him mildly expectto be patted on the back-after years of bashig Krugman.
I hear Sully has become a lot better but when he bashes Krugman I still see red :grr:

[C_U_L8R]

7. drowned in their own bathtub

how fitting

[Bitwit1234]

10. Good Slogan for an AD

Remember the statement that has come down thru history. When the peasants in France were starving, Marie Antoinette was supposed to say
"let them eat cake"....Show a picture of bush eating the piece of birthday cake, and the caption saying "So this is what bush was doing while New Orleans drowned"..

[BurtWorm]

11. I like a variation of aquart's subject line above.

While New Orleans drowned, George ate cake.

[BurtWorm]

12. kick

[BurtWorm]

13. kick