Will Democrats pick up 15 seats in just THREE states? OH-PA-NY?

Grebrook

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Tue Oct-24-06 10:43 PM
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Will Democrats pick up 15 seats in just THREE states? OH-PA-NY?

Edited on Tue Oct-24-06 11:17 PM by Grebrook

That’s the question I think no one has really been asking since everyone is so worried about scrambling to collect 15 out of the entire country. But can Dems really pick up 15 in just these three states? I think they can, and here’s my case.

If you look at a number of states you see Democrats surging in certain environments. For example, in Indiana, Dems are about to pick up 3 seats alone, despite all common sense dictating that they couldn’t in such a red state. Why? An unpopular Republican president, incumbents treading below 65% in previous elections, and most importantly, an unpopular Republican governor. Now, where else do we see that happening?

Let’s have a look.

1.) Ohio - By far the biggest Dem pick up waiting to happen. If you don’t believe a party can pick up 5 seats or more in a single state during a wave election, you better check your recent history. Back in 1994 the Republicans picked up a grand total of 5 seats in JUST the state of Washington alone, and Washington only has 9 house seats. That was a monumental flip. Now take a look at Ohio. You have even better circumstances for a massive Democratic gain. A.) The most despised Republican governor in the entire country, running at 18% approval, which has trickled over and sunk Mike DeWine’s re-election campaign against a spit-and-shine liberal progressive, Sherrod Brown. B.) As mentioned, Mike DeWine is losing in is bid for the senate by about 10 points, and Ken Blackwell is losing in his bid for the governorship by a whopping 25 points in the last three polls. C.) Jean Schmidt won the special election in the 2nd district in 2005, without Katrina, further down spiraling in the Iraq War, Jack Abramoff, Foley, Libby, Dubai Ports or any other GOP scandal even having hit the papers yet, with just 3% victory in a seat that went for the previous Republican by 72%. That’s a decline of 21 points in just five months. A year later, she’s losing or tied in every poll in the district, the most Republican district in Ohio. If she goes down, she’s not going alone. Every Republican who won re-election with less than 65% might go with her. Polls show Debora Pryce losing, Bob Ney’s open seat another guaranteed Dem pick up. Michael Oxley and Michael Turner will also probably be defeated, and the RNC contribution-fact-sheet DKos obtained today even lists Steve Chabot in the first district on its list of most vulnerable tossups. D.) SurveyUSA has consistently shown, for the last straight year, that Ohio as the highest dissaproval for Bush among states that voted for him in 2004, even higher than a half dozen blue states. It might sound like a ludicrous prediction, but I really think the Dems are going to knock off 6 Republicans in Ohio alone. If they do, there’s no question well take the house.

2.) Pennsylvania - All of the latest polls have Dems not only winning about 4 seats, but 1 of those seats shouldn’t even be a Democratic win. A.) Curt Weldon’s FBI raid has tanked him, he was losing to begin with. A perfect nail in the coffin. B.) Gerlach only won re-election in 2004 by 2 points and is losing in the latest polls, C.) Fitzpatrick is also down under Murphy in the latest polls, D.) And of course we all know the Republicans have basically conceded the defeat of mistress-choking Don Sherwood, even despite the heavy GOP district he represents. The suburbs of Phili are in complete revolt. Another likely Republican defeat will be Melissa hart, probably the toughest fight of them all. A lot of angry voters will be coming out on Election Day to knock off Rick Santorum. And don’t believe the hype about his get-out-the-vote machine. According to the recent USA-Today poll in Pennsylvania, there is actually a +3 boost in Dem voters between registered and likely voters heading to the polls to knock off Rick Santorum, defying traditional wisdom of GOP higher turnout. Rendell is leading by 20 points now in the governor’s race, and Casey is back to a 13 point lead. On Election Day, it might be 15-18. That would certainly trickle down and knock off a fifth GOP incumbent, Melissa hart. And, of course, if it does, there’s no question we take the house.

3.) New York - Another classic example of a bad environment for the GOP, but this one seems to be more of an overall decay. The NY GOP has completely imploded, and probably taken about 4 of their seats with them. A.) Firstly, Eliot Spitzer is crushing his GOP opponent by a ridiculous 70%-20% margin in all of the recent polling, and Clinton continues to trounce Spencer by about 2-1, 60%-30%, which means, despite her being more divisive and despised among Republicans, she will actually get more of the vote than Kerry did in 2004. B.) Internal polling by independent sources has Dems trouncing at least two Republicans, Tom Reynolds and the Republican candidate for the 24th district open seat. Both are guaranteed pick ups. C.) Peter King is basically the only Republican left on Long Island, and a very visible one, and the latest polling has him within the margin of error, leading by only 2 points. I think his visibility as a Republican icon from NY will ultimately bring him down by a razor thin margin. D.) Internal polling also puts Sue Kelly, Jim Walsh and Jon Sweeney either behind or 5 points ahead at best. In the thirteenth district, Vito Fossella lost a lot of ground in 2004, and won 59% of the vote; his district was won by Kerry, and polling has shown that Dems have stopped cross-voting for Republicans, especially in the Northeast. Ultimately I think he loses, being the last Republican from NYC. Randy Kuhl is additionally losing in the polls to his Dem challenger in the 29th district. Among those five (Sweeney, Fossello, Kelly, Walsh, Kuhl), it is almost impossible that at least one will not be defeated. Four seats, in the end, will belong to the Democrats in NY. Looking at the massive failure of the NY GOP and their humiliating defeat upcoming in the gubernatorial and senate races, I think many GOP voters may flat out stay home and not bother trying to change it.

Another important fact to consider is that Ohio and PA are disproportionately represented by Republicans to begin with. The GOP controls 12 of 18 seats in Ohio, 12 of 19 in PA.

So thats:
Ohio - 6
Pennsylvania - 5
New York - 4

Can we sink the GOP in just 3 states? Damn right we can. And if not, we’ll damn well fight as if we have no other alternative. Cause if we even come close, then all of the good news that will be coming out of Florida, Arizona, Indiana, Connecticut and Colorado will be just be the cherries on top of our big fat ice cream sunday.

Also - All those that wish to challenge my prediction, please do so from the non-diebold perspective.