http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2006/062406.phpUsing 1994 as the Yardstick
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal
June 24, 2006
Now that President Bush's job-approval ratings have edged up to the high 30s and certain other indicators have also improved a bit for the GOP, are House Republicans in better shape than Democrats were at this point in 1994?
One way to answer is to look at the results of identically worded polling questions asked then and now. Using the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll as a yardstick, we see that at this point in 1994, 32 percent of Americans thought the country was headed in the right direction; in the poll taken June 9-12, 2006, just 27 percent said right direction. Twelve years ago, 50 percent said the country was on the wrong track. Today, 61 percent say it's on the wrong track. In the final NBC/Journal poll before the 1994 election, 27 percent said right direction, the same as now, and 55 percent said wrong track, 6 points more optimistic than the current result.
At this point in 1994, President Clinton's job-approval rating was 52 percent. In the final pre-election poll, it was 48 percent. Bush's approval rating in the most recent NBC/Journal poll was 37 percent.
Clinton's disapproval rating was 39 percent in the second quarter of 1994 and 43 percent immediately before the election. Bush's disapproval rating is 19 points worse -- 58 percent -- than Clinton's was at this point in 1994.
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