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Edited on Tue Oct-31-06 06:34 AM by Grebrook
The last FOUR polls taken out in Virginia now show Jim Webb leading in the race for the Senate.
Rasmussen: 51%-46% CNN: 50%-46% Garin Hart Yang (D): 47%-43% Zogby: 51%-47%
I consider Zogby to be a completely unreliable pollster, and I'm naturally skeptical of internal polling, but clearly CNN and Rasmussen backing both up seem to indicate a trend.
Now, what is important to consider about this race is clearly that Virginia politics turn in the last two weeks of the campaign, as was evident last year when Kilgore's ads backfired and gave Kaine the governorship. What it is also important to consider is that it is very unlikely that Democrats will be cross-voting for Republican House members down-ballot if they're going to vote out a popular former governor. Because of the demographic changes occuring in Virginia and the continual growth of Northern Virginia, GOP house incumbents are in serious trouble, largely because newcomers do not have the respect for incumbents in their new places of residence as they did for their old one. Virginia's rapid growth is endangering the old GOP infrastructure.
Virginia has 11 House Seats, 8 are held by Republicans, and while Virginia is gerrymandered to a small degree like many states, it is no way measurable to places like Florida, Ohio, Texas or Massachusetts, it's simply that voters have traditionally cross-voted for Republicans down-ballot. Now, it appears, no more. If George Allen, a former governor, goes down, make no mistake, as many as 2-3 house incumbents may go with him. The latest polling shows (R) Thelma Drake losing to her Democratic challenger by 5 points.
So let's be clear about this. If Virginia goes, the Republicans may still hold the Senate 50-50, but there is no chance they will hold the House of Representatives, because Thelma Drake is not a Republican Dems were really counting on defeating until this point. Republicans have scrambled to fight off Dems in Ohio, New York, Connecticut, Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Indiana. If they take losses in Virginia, there's no real chance they'll hold the House. They simply can't afford it. The bad news is already spreading. George Allen is a character that is truly deserving of being knocked off. So far we've been knocking off people they don't care about. Lincoln Chaffee (who they hate), Conrad Burns (unfamiliar), Mike DeWine (unfamiliar and unfavorable to many Reps). But knocking off Rick Santorum and George Allen is a big fat slap in the face. Two of their heroes. Rush Limbaugh personally said Allen was his initial pick for president in 08.
Let's kick some dirt in the GOP's face, shall we?
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