youth are most likely to enlist. according to available data on educational aspirations and enlistment in the military.
IMO it's crucial to distinguish between youth who are not college-bound even though the vast majority of their classmates DO go to college right away, and youth from high schools that fail to educate whole cohorts of young people. More than 100 US soldiers were killed in Iraq last month. I'd like to see some member of Congress request a Congressional Research Service study of the high schools those KIA graduated from. What proportion of entering freshmen graduated, and what proprotion of those graduates went on to college and graduated from college?
Since 1987, the military have required at least 90 percent of those who score average or above on the Armed Forces Qualification Test to have high school diplomas. 100 percent of the up to 4 percent the military can admit from marginal scorers on the test must be high school graduates. So when you are talking about military enlistees, you are talking about high school graduates.
The best available data on plans of graduating high school seniors come from an annual survey called "Monitoring the Future" (MTF).
According to the most definitive study, Kerry was right: Enlisting in the military is strongly associated with lack of interest in going to college right away. Here's a page from an online report for decisionmakers about military recruiting:
From
http://newton.nap.edu/books/0309085314/html/200.html :
"Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment
Predicting Propensity to Enlist from MTF Data
... Bachman et al. (2000b) predicted propensity from eight demographic variables ... the two most important predictors were race/ethnicity and college plans. Consistent with previous data, blacks were more likely than other race or ethnic groups to intend to join while those with college plans were least likely to indicate a propensity to join the military.""