SUSA Poll: "Republican J.D. Hayworth is in trouble"

[BurtWorm]

Do my ears hear music? :nopity:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=2b22c6f1-fbee-476c-a7d1-d13cf3a27399


Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10610

Geography Surveyed: Arizona 5th CD
Data Collected: 10/29/2006 - 10/31/2006
Release Date: 11/01/2006 11:35 AM ET
Sponsor: KPNX-TV Phoenix

As Arizona's J.D. Hayworth Goes, So Goes Republican Control of the House ... ? In an election for U.S. House of Representatives today, in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, prominent incumbent Republican J.D. Hayworth is in trouble, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 643 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Just as it was in SurveyUSA's most recent poll, released 10/16/06, the contest today is within the survey's margin of sampling error. But unlike 10/16, when Hayworth still clung to a 3-point lead, today it is Democrat challenger Harry Mitchell who is up by 2 points. Going back to SurveyUSA's first poll in the District in September, Hayworth has lost 6 points, Mitchell has gained 8. A 12-point Republican lead on 9/18 has been erased. Where is the movement? Among female voters, Mitchell had trailed by 4, now leads by 6, a 10-point swing to the Democrat. Among Moderates, Mitchell led by 15 points 2 weeks ago, today leads by 32 points. Among Republicans, 12% voted Democrat in September, 15% voted Democrat 2 weeks ago, 19% vote Democrat today. While this is still only a small amount of erosion from within the Republican base, in a contest this closely contested, it could make the difference. Among Conservatives, though still overwhelmingly Republican, the number who "cross-over" to vote for the Democrat has doubled, from 8% to 16%. Because the contest has national ramifications, and outside money is pouring in to hold the seat for the GOP, these results may fluctuate in the campaign's remaining 6 days. Hayworth was first elected to Congress in 1994.

Filtering: 800 Registered Voters from Arizona's 5th Congressional district were interviewed 10/29/06 through 10/31/06. Of them, 643 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
Asked of 643 Likely Voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican J.D. Hayworth? Democrat Harry Mitchell? Or Libertarian Warren Severin?

46% Hayworth (R)
48% Mitchell (D)
4% Severin (L)
2% Undecided

[fooj]

1. This is AWESOME news!

[Lex]

2. OMG, I'd love to see Hay-worthless sent packing.

That is one below-average dude. Waaaay below. :thumbsdown:

[Chipper Chat]

3. O Sweet Jesus - please, Arizona - vote the bastard out.

Getting rid of that smug asshole would be icing on the cake.

[never_get_over_it]

4. Oh how sweet would that be? eom

[Quixote1818]

5. He is on my list of the top five Republicans I want to lose! Awesome! nt

[librechik]

6. fat f**k

don't let the globe hit you in the ass on the way out of the solar system, Pluto...

[AzDar]

7. Excellent news!! n/t

[kestrel91316]

8. And can we guess the party leanings of surveyusa??

"......today it is DEMOCRAT challenger......."

That's "Democratic" to you, you RW shill. If this R-leaning group says it's in the bag, trust me, it's REALLY in the bag.

[Joe for Clark]

11. Or the opposite - right??

I know one thing - some reliably conservative areas are now in a dead heat.

And frankly, at least Phoenix is not all that conservative.

Some people in the DNC think there is a chance in Arizona - I think they may well be right.

Anyway - we can sure stretch the financial resources of the RNC there.

Joe

[Joe for Clark]

9. I think if Arizona goes badly this midterm - McCain is in deep

trouble.

Joe

[tcfrogs]

10. Trouble, but far from beaten

http://pollster.com/polls/?state=AZ05&race=house_race

Harry Mitchell has been closing the gap, but the average of the last 5 polls still shows Hayworth-less up 49-43.

[Zynx]

12. That average goes back almost a month.

Thus it is not relevant anymore.

[tcfrogs]

14. Understood

Just pointing it out. The only poll that will matter is on election day. Unfortunately, it might not reflect who actually voted for whom.

[Zynx]

21. We'll get out and vote and then see what happens.

I'm not going to get all superstitious in the mean time.

[BurtWorm]

13. The break down for this race is very interesting.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=2b22c6f1-fbee-476c-a7d1-d13cf3a27399

Hayworth does worst among Hispanics, women, and very young voters (who really have to get out and VOTE!). But the most amazing numbers to me are around Party and ideology. Almost 20% of self-identified Republicans and 11% of conservatives say they're voting for Hayworth's Dem opponent Mitchell (compared to 11% Dems and 6% liberals--:wtf:--for Hayworth)

[David Zephyr]

15. I will dance on my roof is this jerk loses!

Come on, Mitchell!

[Vidar]

16. Wonderful.

[Coventina]

17. Oh yes, Yes, YES!!!!!

Oh yes, oh baby, don't stop, oh it feels so GOOD!!!!

That is what I'll be saying on Tuesday as I vote for Harry!!!!!

:woohoo:

[City Lights]

18. My champagne is on ice for this one.

The cork pops the moment that stapled-stomach a-hole gets the boot.

You suck, hayworthless!

[Coventina]

19. Yep, I've been saving a bottle of White Star just for this!

:toast:

[Cameron27]

20. Kyl & Hayworth

Santorum & Allen sit in the same sleaze pool. Those are the elections I'm going to be watching for.

Go Mitchell and Pederson!!!!!