Breaking + Powerful Prediction

[BenDavid]

Stu Rothenberg now predicts the Democrats will take over the Senate and have 51 total seats. Also, the House will go to the Democrats as well...Paula Zahn, Wolf Blitzer, Jeff Greenfield
Time of this report 7 00 pm Eastern, 6 Central....

[babylonsister]

1. I heard it, too. Link to follow, I'm sure!

:evilgrin: :toast: :party: :bounce:

[wryter2000]

2. Who's Stu Rothenberg

My ignorance. Is he usually a good predictor?

[AlCzervik]

3. he's one of the most (burp) respected politicos in the business

or so they say.

[wryter2000]

6. Thanks

Not going to count my chickens yet, but oh, man.

[AlCzervik]

8. me neither but today is a bettter day than yesterday for sure.

[babylonsister]

5. This is his. CNN thinks he's prescient apparently. I hope he is.

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/

[BeFree]

18. As many as 60 House seats?

Yep.... link from a few days ago:
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/


Thursday, October 26, 2006
How High the Wave? Don’t Just Think 1994; Think 1974, 1958, 1982
By Stuart Rothenberg

<snip>

The national political environment currently is worse than it was in 1994, when the Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats and 10 governorships, and when Republicans won GOP control of the House for the first time in decades.

<snip>

President Bush’s approval ratings are worse than Clinton’s were - Bush’s are in the upper 30s, while Clinton’s were in the mid-to-upper 40s - and the 16 percent approval rating for Congress in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll ranks far below where Congress stood prior to the 1994 midterms (24 percent).

<snip>

With the national environment being as it is - and given the last round of redistricting, which limits possible Democratic gains - Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats, based on historical results. Given how the national mood compares to previous wave years and to the GOP’s 15-seat House majority, Democratic gains almost certainly would fall to the upper end of that range.

[Gman]

23. None of this considers gerrymandered districts

I'll be surprised and quite happy if the Democrats get 15 seats. But I'll believe it when I see it.

[BeFree]

24. ABC news said

53 house seats were in play. 53!

Independents will swing this election. It has been said that 70% of the indies will vote dem.

Given that you can't gerrymander indies away, and given that the mood of the country is so bitter, you shouldn't be happy with a measly little 15 seats.

[Clark2008]

4. How?

With my state turning out all the racists, I'm not quite sure how we'd get to 51.

I keep hoping the polls are wrong and that the young people, smart women and black voters aren't being polled accurately, but, sigh, I'm afraid they're not as motivated to vote for Ford as the racists are.

[Zynx]

7. MT, MO, OH, PA, RI, and VA.

That's six and we get 51. We are tied or ahead in all of them.

[WI_DEM]

12. I'm also hoping that the fast closing AZ race could be a sleeper

The Democratic Senate Committee just bought up all the available air time left in AZ for Pederson.

[wryter2000]

19. I'd love to see that

Gave Pederson a few bucks. It would be nice to retire Kyl.

[Hepburn]

9. I am so hoping this is true...

...and that the Repukes are not able to steal another election. OMG...a Democratic Congress to start reigning in that Nazi in the WH. Thank heavens!

:applause:

[fearnobush]

10. I saw it too, he also said forget about winning 20 to 25 seats in the house

, its more like 38 to 42 seats. When CNN said there politico would be an eye opener I figured they would say it all GOP - but no wow - someone pinch me, I must be dreaming. As for Ford in Tenn, he may not matter with pickups in Conn, Montana, PA, Ohio, MO, and Yes - Macca's seat plus holding my own NJ, that equals a net gain of 6 senate seats.

[speedoo]

15. RI will be a pickup, not CT.

The six pickups are RI, Va, Montana, Ohio, MO and PA.

[bigwillq]

11. Let's hope so!

No letting up. There's still a few days left.

:bounce:

[LeftCoast]

13. This is a wonderful narrative to lead us into the election!

I'm totally shocked that CNN is running with this!

[Mr_Spock]

14. Good - now let's all vote as if they are going to be close as heck

Because predictions are only worth the air they were spoken into!

[MasonJar]

16. If we can get Congress back, we can get rid of paperless voting

and the Pugs election-stealing will come to a well deserved closure.
The people are ready this year; I think we can take to the streets if the Pugs try to steal this one.

[question everything]

17. How reliable is Rothenbergh? What did he predict in 2004?

in 2002?

Remember how all of us relied on Zogby in 2004 because his was accurate in 2000?

[torrentprime]

20. good question

good question

[torrentprime]

26. Hmm

I did some digging: he seems to have accurately called the Senate gains for the GOP in 2004.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030616-011105-4808r.htm

FWIW

[BeFree]

27. kick

[Catherine Vincent]

21. Always remember, it's only a prediction. n/t

[midnight]

22. This is happy news. So good to read some today.

[Disillusioned Dem]

25. Will Take the House, Not the Senate

My prediction is the Democrats will take the House, with a lead of 10-15 seats.

They will not take the Senate though, but will gain some Seats. They will pick up PA,RI and OH for sure. MO and VA are toss ups. We my lose MD though if Cardin doesn't watch it. I have a friend living in Silver Springs MD. He says Michael Steele has alot of momentum going his way and is drawing huge crowds. He also leads by 2 in a new poll. Losing this seat will cost the Dems. any chance in the Senate

[AspenRose]

28. I agree with that assessment - Cautiously optimistic

Welcome to DU.

[porphyrian]

29. Since when did our media have any credibility?

Who cares what they say? Even if they're right, you can't trust anything they've said for at least the last six years.

[in_cog_ni_to]

30. Yup...he said the same thing on Tweety's show.

He said if an incumbent isn't running numbers at or above 50% and he is trailing the Democrat...at THIS POINT IN THE ELECTION, he's going to lose. Dems take House and will take the Senate with 51 seats.

:woohoo: