Democrats Predicted to Gain 38 seats in the House.

[Clarkie1]

Yesterday's House summary, based largely on the RT Strategies polls, was predicting a Democratic pickup of 36 House seats. Today's summary, based largely on the slightly more recent Zogby polls, is predicting a Democratic pickup of 38 House seats. What should be making NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds wet his pants (besides the fact that he may well lose his own race) is the fact that two different pollsters are both predicting a disaster for the GOP. It is hard to ascribe that to pollster bias or fishy methodology. The much predicted Democratic tidal wave is beginning to become visible. It is not inconceivable that the Democrats could win 40 Republican seats and not lose a single one of their own. A year ago anyone saying the Democrats could even win the 15 seats need to take control of the House would have been declared crazy.

But as Yogi Berra once so famously pointed out: It's ain't over 'til its over. Polling is one thing. Voting is something else. The real key to this election wil be turnout. If Democrats and independents turn out in large numbers, we will get a result similar to the one predicted today. If they don't bother to vote, many endangered Republicans will survive.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

So, people...GOTV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[still_one]

1. The only way this is a reality is if PEOPLE COME OUT AND VOTE!

[LeftCoast]

2. Yay! I hope this is right!

Five more days!!!!

[longship]

3. Nobody would predict this based *solely* on polls.

I've been discounting individual polls for weeks. But that didn't stop me from predicting a Democrat tsunami next Tuesday. There's much, much more information entering into these predictions than any particular candidate polls.

1. National trends, including issue polls and other global indicators have been showing that ChimpCo's credibility with the electorate has slipped to unprecidented levels for any administration.

2. The issues this election cycle are *all* national issues. The O'Neill Principle is dead, and has been dead, for the entire last 15 months.

3. The number of candidate polls moving to the more competitive numbers has been increasing for the last several months. I'm not talking individual polls here but the accumulated concensus of the whole body of polling.

4. Anecdotal evidence that things are very bad for the GOP has been prevelant and has been increasing all year.

5. Disaffection with the neocon GOP has brought a large number of former prominent GOP people to the forefront. These people want their party back and are fighting hard to bring this about. People like John W. Dean, Richard Viguerie, and others are speaking out loudly.

6. In spite of all this, ChimpCo's resolve to stay the course on their reckless program has been unwavering, even up to today when Chimp promised that Rummy and Crashcart would remain throughout the rest of Chimp's term. More than anything else, this is what's responsible for this upcoming Democratic Party tsunami. They've literally painted themselves into the corner. They have no where to run.

All these things point to a complete GOP meltdown.

I've been predicting this for weeks. 7-8 seats in the Senate. Upwards of fifty seats (or more) in the House. Bold predictions, but I think it's inevitable.

[enigmatic]

4. The only damper on the night for me

Would be if Lieberman wins over Lamont despite a huge gain by Democrats, but that's just a personal dislike of Lieberman talking.

I think 40 seats in the House is almost certainly do-able, and I think the Senate is where the real shockers will be, independent of Lieberman/Lamont.

I can't wait until Tuesday..

[longship]

5. Yeah. I know what you mean.

However, one can always hope that the near total disconnect between the big issue polling and the candidate polling means something like the people doing candidate polling are all full of hooey this year because they're using stupid models from previous election cycles when the GOP wasn't in total meltdown.

In that case, Lamont could be ahead and we might not hear about it until Tuesday.

I don't think this is the case, but we'll know Tuesday night. Nothing would make *me* happier if Lieberman loses to the Nedster.

[Lil Red]

6. I feel the same way!

The polls show Lieberman winning. I've been fantasizing about a big scandal breaking around him over the weekend; preferably one that deeply offends people and can't be resolved before Tuesday. We could claim it as proof that God loves "true blue:patriot:" liberals more!
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Lil Red

[newyawker99]

8. Hi Lil Red!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Hav]

.

While the House doesn't look bad, some Senate races seemed to get closer the last days where Dems had good leads (Montana, MD).
It will be a tough fight but I hope we get at least 50 seats.

[WI_DEM]

9. many of the house races are razor thin too

but that is normal that towards the end the polls tighten.

[Hav]

7. double post, sorry

.

[Xenotime]

10. This is great. I am ready for us to be back in power.