Click this link look to the right and download pdf file titled "1994" to see entire very short 6 page report
http://www.democracycorps.com/ Report on the Final Survey in the 50 Competitive Republican Districts
It is very hard to look at the most recent Democracy Corps survey in the 50 most competitive Republican-held districts finished last night and not conclude that we are headed toward a 1994 election – with the Democratic majority approaching that of the ‘Gingrich Congress’. The named Democratic vote for Congress has moved up from a 3-point lead to 7-point margin since Sunday, with the named Democrat for the first time moving over 50 percent (51 to 44 percent). For the first time, the Democratic candidate is ahead on average in the bottom tier of least competitive races.
The generic congressional ballot has moved up to 11 points – up 3 points from Sunday and another 3 points from the week before.
The gap in interest in the election (those ranking their interest as “10” on 1-to-10 point scale) between Democratic and Republican voters has grown from 7 to 14 this week.
The trend in the final week on most factors, as we will elaborate below, favors the Democrats, including independents’ support, enthusiasm, and handling key issues, including taxes, and above all, the Iraq war. The 2006 election is rapidly moving toward being a referendum on Iraq.
We do want to underscore in this last survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps some reasons why you should believe this is real:
• This survey, unlike any other public survey, asks the congressional vote using the actual names of each candidate, meaning this survey fully reflects any advantages for incumbency. We also ask the generic ballot for a read of overall partisan sentiment, but named vote is more likely to tell us what happens.
The shifts in this final week are almost entirely among independents who are giving the Democratic candidates landslide margins.