http://billmon.org/archives/002922.htmlThe Next WaveTsunamis, they say, can be deceptive. Out in the deep ocean, travelling at 400 to 500 mph, they may appear on the surface to be nothing more than just a large swell -- like the wake of a large ship. While sensors can estimate the wave's size and power, it's true destructive force doesn't become visible until it reaches shallower water and all that energy is compressed and forced towards the surface. Then it hits, at which point the last place you want to be is on the beach.
With four days left until the election, the political wave is nearing the shore. And at this point it looks like a Republican killer. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which has been polling in GOP swing districts, has completed its final pre-election survey, and is forecasting a 1994-style blow out:
The named Democratic vote for Congress has moved up from a 3-point lead to 7-point margin since Sunday, with the named Democrat for the first time moving over 50 percent (51 to 44 percent). For the first time, the Democratic candidate is ahead on average in the bottom tier of least competitive races.
Note that these results were obtained using named candidates -- not the generic ballot question -- in Republican-held districts. In those districts, Bush's approval rating is down to 43%, the Republican Congress is down to 31%, and the Iraq War is only slightly more popular than gay marriage. The number of self-identified "strong" Democrats (22%) is only one point lower than those calling themselves "strong" Republicans. These are Republican districts.
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Which is why if the Dems do win on Tuesday, and win big, they better get the celebrating out of the way fast, and start thinking about how they're going to handle a very angry, very rejected but still very powerful president with points to prove and scores to settle. Because if he goes critical on them (and us) the next big wave could wash us all out to sea.