Pre-Election race-by-race special Predictions MEGATHREAD - Get your Nostradamus on!

Grebrook

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Sat Nov-04-06 12:44 AM
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Pre-Election race-by-race special Predictions MEGATHREAD - Get your Nostradamus on!

So here it is, we should consolidate all of the speculation this weekend into a single thread, I think. Make your startling predictions RIGHT HERE! On whatever you want, especially if you feel you've got the on-the-ground assessment of certain races that you're involved in. Personally, I'm from NJ, and the mood out here is utterly depressed from Republicans who were defeated in 2005 after great expectation that they would win and now feel that they'll have even less luck this year and who are largely turned off and even, in the case of my father, party-switching to Dems. So, my prediction for New Jersey is as follows:

New Jersey Races:

1.) Senate - Menendez defeats Tom Kean Jr. 56%-44%

2.) House - House Democrats see at least a 10% increase down-ballot from what Menendez earns, as there will be many independents and moderate Republicans voting against Menendez because they smell corruption in a state that has grown incredibly weary of corruption, but will split their ticket because they can't stand Republicans down-ballot, who are much more conservative than Kean and because they obviously don't want Republicans to control all of Congress. It is hard to imagine even a handful of independents in the extremely socially liberal Garden State voting straight Republican tickets. Guys like Bob Dole were decimated in New Jersey while guys like George H. W. Bush won upwards of 10% more of the vote, because the Elder Bush emphasized foreign policy and bullshit tax cuts that never materialized, not "GAYS ABORTION GAYS ABORTION GAYS ABORTION". That doesn't play well here. Most Republicans in New Jersey call themselves Republican as a substitute for saying, "I FUCKING HATE PROPERTY TAXES", not like down South, where it is more along the lines of, "I FUCKING HATE GAY PEOPLE".

Here are the following Republicans that stand somewhat a chance of being defeated:

Jim Saxton - 63% in 2004
Scott Garret - 57% in 2004
Mike Fergusson - 57% in 2004
Frank LoBiondo (My representative) - 65% in 2004

Saxton and LoBiondo will likely whether the storm by 10% or more, they're simply tucked away in territory that is conservative enough to eek out victories. But Democrats will drastically increase their percentage of the vote down-ballot from people voting split tickets and Republicans jumping ship en masse, and New Jersey is not very gerrymandered, with 6 Republicans and 7 Democrats, which is actually probably 1 more seat than the GOP should have. And so I believe either (R) Scott Garrett or (R) Mike Fergusson will be defeated. Perhaps both, but likely only one of them at best. GOP casualties would be much worse if not for Jon Corzine pissing off the voters during the government shutdown debacle. That tended to infuriate the entire electorate, and now the election is a war between pissed off Republicans and Democrats with independents going after Menendez, whom Corzine appointed to replace him, but backing Dems down-ballot because they hate Congress. I'm also encouraged that the polls seem to match the pre-election Corzine-versus-Forrester gubernatorial matchup in 2005 heading into the election. At this point in 2005 Farleigh-Dickinson had Corzine up by only 4 (44%-40%) and he won by 55%-44%, while Menendez is currently up 48%-38%.

Mixed fury in the Garden State.

Now, what special predictions would you like to make about a local election or just one you've been generally following? Or lots of them? How many seats do you think the Dems will win overall? How many in the House and Senate?