50 state strategy at work: Pombo race is the fight of his career

[n2doc]

Pombo race is the fight of his career
The GOP congressman has seen a reelection romp become a neck-and-neck battle with the little-known Jerry McNerney.
By Rone Tempest, Times Staff Writer
November 4, 2006

BOOSTER: Former President Bill Clinton stumps Wednesday in Stockton for Jerry McNerney, right.
(Craig Sanders / AP)

STOCKTON — Only a few months ago, most savvy political analysts had concluded that beating seven-term Republican Congressman Richard Pombo in his comfortable Northern California district was Jerry McNerney's impossible dream.

The little-known Democrat McNerney, they said, may as well have been tilting at the wind turbines in Altamont Pass, which separates the solidly liberal San Francisco Bay Area from the largely conservative exurban ranchland that is Pombo's stronghold.

But charges of political corruption and environmental mismanagement against Pombo, the powerful chairman of the House Resources Committee, would not go away. Hundreds of political volunteers and environmental activists poured into the district from the Bay Area to work for McNerney, 55, a soft-spoken mathematics PhD and expert on alternative energy.

As Tuesday's election approaches, California's 11th Congressional District is highly competitive, the most likely of the state's 53 congressional seats to change hands Tuesday.

"This is a race that clearly has defied conventional wisdom and expectation," said Amy Walter, senior editor of the independent Cook Political Report, which now classifies the race as a toss-up. "We knew what Pombo's weaknesses were, but we also knew that the Democrats had not been able to get their top candidate to run. But with less than a week to go, it's clear that Pombo has not put this one away."

A victory here could be an unexpected boost for the national Democratic Party, which until recently had given up on California contributing anything to the 15 seats it needs to take control of Congress.

Other California contests in which Democrats are given an outside shot at picking up a seat are the 4th Congressional District in the neighboring Sierra foothills, where eight-term incumbent John T. Doolittle, like Pombo, has been linked to convicted Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and the 50th District in northern San Diego County where Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray are seeking the seat formerly held by Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in federal prison for taking bribes.

Analysts say no Democratic seats appear to be at risk.

Though recognizing Pombo's perilous position, Republicans remain confident that the 45-year-old former Tracy rancher and truck driver will survive his toughest challenge, if only on the coattails of Republican Gov. Schwarzenegger's anticipated victory over Democrat Phil Angelides.

"Turnout will be depressed for Democrats," Assemblyman and congressional candidate Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) predicted. "The majority of Democrats believe Angelides is going to lose."

But two recent polls show McNerney statistically tied with Pombo, who defeated him in their first matchup in 2004 by 61% to 38%. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district by 6%.

more:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-pombo4nov04,0,1515705.story?coll=la-center-politics-cal

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1. Pombointheirpocket.org

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