Hugh Hewitt has finally lost his mind

[Grebrook]

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/30d4d9de-f94d-4c8b-a5f1-659139c85d9b

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My homeys at the Weekly Standard have published their election predictions, and they range from dire to calamitous. Meanwhile, I’m merrily skipping about Soxblog Manor (in a completely manly way, mind you) whistling a happy tune. I expect Tuesday to be an extremely successful day for the Republican Party.

<snip>
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At the time, it was unthinkable to serious followers of politics that the exit polls would be completely worthless. They had never been wrong before. But something fundamental had changed in the way the public was responding to exit polls or the way the pollsters were gathering information to make their work-product obsolete. By 9:00 pm., it had become obvious to everyone except a hysterical and incredulous Susan Estrich that the exit polls were wrong. Why it happened that way is still something of a mystery.

<snip>
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So what’s it all mean? In the tied races, the Republican will win. In the close races, the Republican will win. It adds up to Republicans running the table in the Senate. That’s right – running the table. Montana, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey, Rhode Island (whoopee), and Maryland will all send or re-send Republicans to the Senate. But wait, there’s more! Michigan will send Sheriff Michael Bouchard to the Senate. And in Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is in striking distance.

<snip>


So, according to Hewitt, who has finally lost his mind because his predictions of a "permanent political realignment" in the United States not only failed to materialized, but may actually occur in the opposite direction, the Republicans will actually pick up seats in the Senate. Apparently three seats. Uh huh.

For those of you unfamiliar with the cliche right-wing talking point that "POLLS LIES POLLS LIES", there's actually nothing to back this up. Firstly, an opinion poll and an exit poll are two entirely different things. For example, the opinion polls were put to the test last year in the New Jersey gubernatorial election and Virginia gubernatorial election. What happened? They actually UNDERESTIMATED Democratic strength. Have a look:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2005

Source Date Kaine (D)Kilgore (R) Potts (I)
Survey USA November 7, 2005 50% 45% 4%
Mason-Dixon November 4, 2005 45% 44% 4%
Rasmussen November 4, 2005 49% 46% 2%
Roanoke College November 2, 2005 44% 36% 5%
Washington Post October 30, 2005 47% 44% 4%
Rasmussen October 28, 2005 46% 44% 4%
Mason-Dixon October 25, 2005 42% 44% 5%
Rasmussen October 24, 2005 46% 48% 2%
Hotline October 18, 2005 40% 38% 5%
Survey USA October 17, 2005 47% 45% 4%
Rasmussen October 12, 2005 44% 46% 1%
Rasmussen September 28, 2005 45% 45% 5%
Survey USA September 19, 2005 43% 46% 4%
Mason-Dixon September 18, 2005 40% 41% 6%
Rasmussen September 16, 2005 40% 43% 5%
Survey USA August 9, 2005 43% 48% 3%
Rasmussen August 4, 2005 39% 45% 5%
Mason-Dixon July 24, 2005 38% 37% 9%

Kaine actually won by 6%, even as Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon had him polled at 3% and 1% respectively on election day.

Now, for New Jersey:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_gubernatorial_election,_2005

Source Date (D)Corzine (R)Forrester
Marist October 10 44% 43%
Survey USA October 11 49% 41%
Strategic Vision October 13 46% 40%
Quinnipiac October 19 50% 43%
Rasmussen October 20 49% 40%
Survey USA October 25 50% 41%
Strategic VisionNovember 2 48% 42%
Fairleigh- November 2 44% 40%
Quinnipiac November 2 50% 38%
Marist College November 4 51% 41%
Monmouth UniversityNovember 4 47% 38%
Rasmussen November 6 44% 39%
Quinnipiac November 7 52% 45%
Survey USA November 7 50% 44%

Corzine won by 55%-44%, an 11% victory. The polls, however, on average, seemed to indicate a 8-9% victory. So, at best (for the pukes), the polls are actually ACCURATE. At worst, they're underestimating our intensity.

In summary, Hugh Hewitt is a fucking moron.

Edit: Ouch, sorry about those columns, it's a little hard to get them arranged right, they come out all wrong after posting them, they look neat and orderly in the text box. Don't come out neat and orderly in the actual post for some reason.

[Torgo Johnson]

1. Ha!

"So what’s it all mean? In the tied races, the Republican will win. In the close races, the Republican will win. It adds up to Republicans running the table in the Senate. That’s right – running the table. Montana, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey, Rhode Island (whoopee), and Maryland will all send or re-send Republicans to the Senate. But wait, there’s more! Michigan will send Sheriff Michael Bouchard to the Senate. And in Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is in striking distance."

Even in Hewitt's delusional mind, there is no chance for Dewine in Ohio.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. They Were Raw And Unadjusted Exit Polls...

They were the same exit polls that showed Dukakis beating Papa Bush in 1988...