Channelling TIA:How the GOP can keep the House: STEAL 31 SEATS with uncounted & switched votes

[mom cat]

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
HOUSE ELECTION FORECAST

61 GOP House seats
Democrats need to win 15 to gain control.

Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------
Assume 60% undecided voters (UVA) break to Democratic challengers:

UVA 50 55 60 67 75
N Probability (Dems win at least N races)
41 80 97 99.9 100 100
43 30 71 94 100 100
45 2 15 48 89 100

Probability that Democrats win at least N seats:
N 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Prob 99.9 98.8 94 79 48 17 4 0.1

New House make-up:
Dems 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250
GOP 192 191 190 189 188 187 186 185
___________________________________________________________________

ELECTION FRAUD SCENARIO ANALYSIS
---------------------------------

Current Projections (Pre-hack, assume ZERO fraud):
Dems win 44 of 61 GOP seats and capture the House 246-189.
Average Vote share: Dem 52% - GOP 48%

Fraud Scenario Assumptions
(required for GOP to Win House):
1. 3% of votes are not counted (75% Democratic)
2. 11% of Democratic votes are switched to GOP

Post-hack (MASSIVE FRAUD):
31 elections are switched from Democrats to GOP
The Democrats win 13 seats, 2 shy of the 15 required for a majority.
The GOP wins 47 seats and retain the House.
Vote share: GOP 53.9% - Dem 46.1%

Projections based on latest polls (60% UVA to Dems)
---------------------------------------------------
Pre-hack Post-hack
District Oct.26 Dem GOP Nov.3 Dem GOP Dem GOP Prob Dem GOP Switch
Code Average 46.9 46.5 Latest 47.0 44.6 52.0 48.0 98.0 46.1 53.9 31

1 AZ 1 10/26 46 48 10/26 46 48 49.6 50.4 34 43.5 56.5
2 AZ 5 10/15 45 48 10/15 48 46 51.6 48.4 95 45.6 54.4 yes
3 AZ 8 10/2 45 37 10/29 53 41 56.6 43.4 100 50.9 49.1
4 CA 4 10/26 46 49 10/26 39 39 52.2 47.8 99 46.2 53.8 yes
5 CA 11 10/26 48 46 10/26 48 46 51.6 48.4 95 45.6 54.4 yes

6 CA 50 9/12 40 54 9/12 40 54 43.6 56.4 0 37.2 62.8
7 CO 4 10/26 48 45 11/3 43 44 50.8 49.2 80 44.7 55.3 yes
8 CO 5 10/18 38 51 10/27 40 47 47.8 52.2 1 41.6 58.4
9 CO 7 10/26 51 46 10/31 54 38 58.8 41.2 100 53.3 46.7
10 CT 2 10/26 51 45 10/29 48 47 51.0 49.0 85 45.0 55.0 yes

11 CT 4 10/26 42 52 10/30 51 44 54.0 46.0 100 48.2 51.8 yes
12 CT 5 10/26 51 43 10/29 46 43 52.6 47.4 100 46.7 53.3 yes
13 FL 13 10/26 49 47 10/26 49 47 51.4 48.6 93 45.4 54.6 yes
14 FL 16 10/13 48 41 10/13 48 41 54.6 45.4 100 48.8 51.2 yes
15 FL 22 10/26 50 48 10/26 50 48 51.2 48.8 89 45.2 54.8 yes

16 FL 24 10/24 43 45 10/24 43 45 50.2 49.8 58 44.1 55.9 yes
17 ID 1 10/26 37 39 11/1 38 34 54.8 45.2 100 49.0 51.0 yes
18 IL 6 10/26 48 47 10/29 54 40 57.6 42.4 100 52.0 48.0
19 IL 10 10/26 48 46 10/26 48 46 51.6 48.4 95 45.6 54.4 yes
20 IL 14 10/10 42 52 10/10 42 52 45.6 54.4 0 39.3 60.7

21 IL 19 10/10 36 53 10/10 36 53 42.6 57.4 0 36.2 63.8
22 IN 2 10/26 48 45 10/31 52 43 55.0 45.0 100 49.2 50.8 yes
23 IN 8 10/26 53 43 10/26 53 43 55.4 44.6 100 49.7 50.3
24 IN 9 10/26 51 43 10/26 51 43 54.6 45.4 100 48.8 51.2 yes
25 IA 1 10/8 48 50 10/29 49 42 54.4 45.6 100 48.6 51.4 yes

26 IA 2 10/26 48 47 10/26 48 47 51.0 49.0 85 45.0 55.0 yes
27 KY 3 10/26 52 46 11/1 52 44 54.4 45.6 100 48.6 51.4 yes
28 KY 4 10/26 50 46 10/29 45 42 52.8 47.2 100 46.9 53.1 yes
29 MN 1 10/26 47 50 10/26 47 50 48.8 51.2 11 42.6 57.4
30 MN 2 10/15 42 50 10/15 42 50 46.8 53.2 0 40.5 59.5

31 MN 6 10/26 47 48 10/26 42 52 45.6 54.4 0 39.3 60.7
32 NV 3 10/26 44 51 10/30 39 46 48.0 52.0 2 41.8 58.2
33 NH 1 10/8 37 49 11/2 42 47 48.6 51.4 7 42.4 57.6
34 NH 2 10/26 50 47 11/2 45 37 55.8 44.2 100 50.1 49.9
35 NJ 7 10/26 43 46 10/26 43 46 49.6 50.4 34 43.5 56.5

36 NM 1 10/19 45 42 10/29 53 44 54.8 45.2 100 49.0 51.0 yes
37 NY 3 10/10 44 51 10/10 44 51 47.0 53.0 0 40.7 59.3
38 NY 19 10/26 49 47 10/26 49 47 51.4 48.6 93 45.4 54.6 yes
39 NY 20 10/26 53 42 10/26 53 42 56.0 44.0 100 50.3 49.7
40 NY 24 10/10 53 42 10/10 53 42 56.0 44.0 100 50.3 49.7

41 NY 26 10/18 46 49 10/26 53 44 54.8 45.2 100 49.0 51.0 yes
42 NY 29 10/26 43 42 10/26 53 42 56.0 44.0 100 50.3 49.7
43 NC 8 10/26 48 44 10/26 48 44 52.8 47.2 100 46.9 53.1 yes
44 NC 11 10/26 53 44 10/26 48 43 53.4 46.6 100 47.5 52.5 yes
45 OH 1 10/26 46 48 10/26 48 46 51.6 48.4 95 45.6 54.4 yes

46 OH 2 10/17 46 51 10/31 48 45 52.2 47.8 99 46.2 53.8 yes
47 OH 6 10/18 64 32 10/18 64 32 66.4 33.6 100 61.7 38.3
48 OH 15 10/10 53 41 10/10 53 41 56.6 43.4 100 50.9 49.1
49 OH 18 10/11 48 41 10/27 53 33 61.4 38.6 100 56.2 43.8
50 OK 5 10/10 33 62 10/10 33 62 36.0 64.0 0 29.4 70.6

51 PA 4 10/26 47 51 10/26 48 46 51.6 48.4 95 45.6 54.4 yes
52 PA 6 10/26 51 46 10/29 49 44 53.2 46.8 100 47.3 52.7 yes
53 PA 7 10/10 52 44 10/24 50 43 54.2 45.8 100 48.4 51.6 yes
54 PA 8 10/26 50 47 10/30 46 41 53.8 46.2 100 47.9 52.1 yes
55 PA 10 10/23 48 39 10/26 47 38 56.0 44.0 100 50.3 49.7

56 TX 22 na na na 10/25 36 28 57.6 42.4 100 52.0 48.0
57 VA 2 10/26 50 45 10/29 43 51 46.6 53.4 0 40.3 59.7
58 VA 5 10/10 40 56 10/10 40 56 42.4 57.6 0 36.0 64.0
59 VA 10 10/10 42 47 10/10 42 47 48.6 51.4 7 42.4 57.6
60 WA 8 10/26 49 47 10/30 45 51 47.4 52.6 0 41.2 58.8
61 WI 8 10/26 51 45 10/26 51 45 53.4 46.6 100 47.5 52.5 yes

_______________________________________________________________________

ELECTION FRAUD MODEL

Purpose:
Determine the level of fraud required to reverse the true vote
(assumed equal to the final poll).

Application to Final House polls:
Determine the level of fraud necessary in each district in order for the
GOP to steal the election. The analysis is based on the final pre-election
polls, the expected percentage split of uncounted votes, and the percentage
undecided voter split.

There are three primary categories:
1)Voter disenfranchisement
2)Uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, discarded, etc.)
3)Switched votes at the voting machine and/or central tabulator.

Although it's a major fraud component, disenfranchisement is not
factored into the model. True vote shares are matched to the final
pre-election polls. Approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted.

The majority of uncounted votes are in minority districts.

Example:
a) Democrats lead 50-47% in the final pre-election poll.
b) 60% of undecided votes break for the Democratic challenger.
c) 4% of Democratic votes are switched to the GOP.

Note: The 2.36% "breakeven" vote switch is the calculated minimum
switch necessary for the election to end up a TIE.

ASSUMPTIONS:
Poll MoE MoE 3%
Dem Poll DP 50
Rep Poll RP 47
Undecided Vote UVA 60% to Dem
Spoiled Votes VSP 3% (assume 75% are Dem)
Switched Votes VSW 4% from Dem to Rep

Calculate: Dem Rep
PRE-HACK 51.80 48.20 (after UVA adj.)
Less:Spoiled 2.25 0.99
Adj. Vote share 49.55 47.21
2-Party Vote 51.21 48.79

Switched -2.05 2.05
POST-HACK 49.16 50.84

Breakeven Switch 2.36% (for 50/50 result)

Prob. of Discrepancy: 4.2% (2-party pre-hack less post-hack)
Sensitivity analysis:
Switched Votes 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Probability 35% 24% 15% 8% 4.2% 2% 0.8% 0.3%
_____________________________________________________________________________



HERE'S A COMPREHENSIVE ELECTION 2004 SITE:
POLLING DATA, ANALYSIS, DISCUSSION
and...
THE EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL
http://www.truthisall.net/

Downloads in a minute (4mb)
Easy to use (3 inputs)
Press F9 to run 200 simulations
Pre-election/exit polls
(51 State & 18 National)

A challenge to all those who still believe Bush won:
Use the National Exit Poll
"How Voted in 2000" demographic
("NatExit" sheet) to come up
with just ONE plausible Bush win scenario.

Note the feasibility constraint:
The maximum ratio of Bush 2000 voters to the total 2004 vote is 39.8%
(48.7mm/122.3mm)


Post the scenario on the Election Forum at ProgressiveIndependent.com and/or Democratic Undergound.com



View the original 11/1/04 election model forecast of Kerry winning
51.63-51.80% of the 2-party vote:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[aquart]

1. Do they still have the local support to pull it off?

Because I don't think they do.

[mom cat]

9. In some places, it only takes one infected machine to infect all

th rest. You do not need a lot of support to pull that off. Just one well paid crook.

[razors edge]

2. Saved outside the box

for later reference.

[BeFree]

21. A try at dif format, ignore may be advisable

     
         Average polls        0% fraud           Final
       Oct. 26     Nov.3       NOV.7      %      w/fraud
US    Dem  GOP   Dem   GOP    Dem  GOP   Prob   Dem   GOP   
      46.9 46.5  47.0  44.6   52.0 48.0  98.0   46.1  53.9    
AZ#1  46   48     46   48     49.6 50.4   34    43.5  56.5   

I used spaces between the numbers, and used plain text code.

3rd edit... loooks pretty good. So we'll try to copy and
paste.

Works. Replaced US with Dis for district. In next post will
copy and paste that header list and then insert a district
below it. You could do this with your district and it will be
little easier to read the numbers. 


         Average polls        0% fraud           Final
       Oct. 26     Nov.3       NOV.7      %      w/fraud
Dis    Dem  GOP   Dem   GOP    Dem  GOP   Prob   Dem   GOP  

[BeFree]

24. Formatted

      Average polls    0% fraud           Final
     Oct. 26   Nov.3   NOV.7      %       w/fraud
Dis    Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP   Prob    Dem GOP 
AZ 1    46 48  46 48   49.6 50.4  34     43.5 56.5
AZ 5    45 48  48 46   51.6 48.4  95     45.6 54.4 
AZ 8    45 37  53 41   56.6 43.4  100    50.9 49.1
CA 4    46 49  39 39   52.2 47.8  99     46.2 53.8 
CA 11   48 46  48 46   51.6 48.4  95     45.6 54.4 

Stripped the dates from district data. Spaces to move numbers
around, plain text.  Some dates of polls have changed (minor)

[razors edge]

26. Thanks, and updated.

:) :) :)

[BeFree]

33. Probabilities reformatted

Probabilities

Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------
Assume 60% undecided voters (UVA) break to Democratic
challengers:

N Probability (Dems win at least N races) WIN SEATS

UVA-Dem%   50%     55%      60%      67%    75% 
WIN  41    80       97      99.9     100   100   
WIN  43    30       71      94       100   100
WIN  45     2       15      48       89    100

Probability that Democrats win at least N seats:

WIN  41    42    43  44   45  46  47  48.........seats
Prob 99.9  98.8  94  79   48  17   4   0.1......percentage

[babylonsister]

3. I don't understand all these numbers, but wouldn't it look a bit

too suspicious if this happened? I understand it's feasible because it's been done, but that's a lot of seats.

[mom cat]

10. Flipping the Kerry/Bush votes involved more numbers than are represented here.

TIA is just showint those districts where the probability of a havk is serious. If you live in or near a district whose numbers is followed by the word "yes", take very extra precautions and do not let any such candidate prematurely conceed.

[babylonsister]

13. Thanks, mom cat!

I'm relieved there's no 'yes' after TX-22 (DeLay's former and my current district)!

OT: how are you feeling? I hope your recuperation is going fast and furious!

[mom cat]

15. I am doing fabulous! I am walking with just a cruch, and even that will be a thing

of the past pretty soon! I had the other hip done four years ago and it took me three months to get to the point where I am three weeks after this one! Between my working out by painting the exterior of my house and the changes in the proceedure in the last four years, it is the difference between night and day. I would tell anyone to not put it off. I am already walking much better than just before the surgery!

[Roland99]

4. Crossing fingers, toes, legs, arms, eyes, ......

[sam sarrha]

5. last presidential election 5 MILLION VOTES were not counted

[mom cat]

12. Bingo!

[livvy]

6. This is the scariest part for me.... K&R

"The Democrats win 13 seats, 2 shy of the 15 required for a majority."
It would make it seem believable to the average uninformed person, especially if the media made no fuss about it, other than mild surprise. And the likelihood that that would be their response is, well, likely.
Thanks for the TIA post. As always, I get a little lost in the numbers, but the gist is clear.

[FogerRox]

7. yeah me too.

[mogster]

8. We need to make this into graphic presentation

You know if it's possible to get these (and future) numbers as CVS, or comma-separated - and with an explanation? I could make an effort on making a graph script in php. Graphics will make these numbers understandable to more people by visualizing the contrasts.

I'm bookmarking the thread in case, though ;-)

[mom cat]

11. Good idea mogster. Visual aids are real helpful to me.

[omega minimo]

17. K&R mom cat thanks. Are there interim ways/keys here to help

comprehend this sort of info? Since arriving at DU post 2004 debacle, my wish would be for more meeting ground b/w the genius/tech/data folk and the ones who are interested but don't speak the lingo. And like this, some outreach into GD&P...........

:hug:

[mom cat]

20. Here is a graph from TIA that will help clarify the probabilities

of the Dems winning 41-48 seats, assuming no fraud.




As for the info in the OP, go to the long listing of numbers. Each line begins with the abbrieviation for the state followed by the district code. Go to the end of the line and see if the word "yes" is printed. If so, that is a district that is susceptible to fraud.If you live in or near such a district, please do your ovservot work.

[SharonAnn]

22. Thank you. That's great!

[mom cat]

37. Glad it helps. I always prefer the visual aids.

[mom cat]

38. Check out this post: TIA and Autorank have a great Fraud Busters

program for election night. You could be a great help here:
Please check it out:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2576577#2576929

This looks great!

[truedelphi]

14. K & R

[stillcool]

16. you know...

I think the reason for all the chatter about computerized voting at this late date, is to instill uncertainty in people's minds, so that when it does happen.....it will be expected, and we already know there will be no proof, and the onus will be on the 'glitch'. I'm sure we will hear that republicans lost votes too. There has got to be a way to audit the vote, or have parallel elections in the counties most susceptible. Jeepers, it's not like I didn't know...but it so sucks...

[Peace Patriot]

18. Thanks, TIA, for this tremendous work, and Mom Cat, for posting it.

We know they have the capability, and we know they've been working on additional methods of disenfranchisement, to bolster their basic capability in all the electronic voting machines--"trade secret," proprietary programming, owned and controlled by Bushite corporations, in all these extremely insecure and insider hackable voting machines. One hacker, a couple of minutes, leaving no trace. That's all it take to changes millions of votes. Then there are the electronic voter purge lists, voter ID and all the rest.

We need to be prepared, psychologically for this and worse. That is the main way they get us--not just by keeping thieves and murderers in power, but also the psychological warfare to demoralize and disempower the majority. We put out all this tremendous effort, and we know we have the votes, the polls, the momentum--and still we lose. The chief triumph--maybe the only triumph--of corporate news monopoly propaganda is in convincing members of the great American progressive majority that OTHER Americans are nuts, and that we are the minority.

But these propaganda techniques wear thinner and thinner. This time, for instance, we are seeing a tremendous voter revolt in the form of Absentee Ballot voting. People don't trust the machines, and are trying to get around the rigged electronics. I think we can turn this huge AB voting revolt into an effective strategy to achieve transparent vote counting. Organize these AB voters, and put pressure on election officials, to, a) HAND COUNT the AB votes, and b) POST the results BEFORE any electronics are used. These are simple, common sense demands, connected directly to AB voting, that circumvent the big problem of the corruption of both Dem and Repub election officials and legislators on e-voting contracts. And if we can get these simple demands enforced, even more people will vote by AB--it's already up to 50% and 60% of the vote in many places--and we will have created a paper ballot system BY DEFAULT. It may not help us this time--they're going to miscount a lot of AB votes (and all over votes), but it could have a dramatic impact on the '08 primaries and general election.

Say we wake up on Nov. 8, and TIA's analysis is what has happened. Two or three seats short of a majority in the House. Actually, I don't think we'll know on Nov. 8. I think there are going to be some big fights about this. It's a different world than 2004. That election seems like it was decades ago, doesn't it? Think how much has changed. We have half the voters in the country rebelling against the machines (--in the 30 states that have AB voting). We have the Repub gov of MD agitating against the machines! And many, many other such developments. Consciousness about election fraud is very, very much improved since 2004. And I just don't think that the Dems or the voters are going to let it slide. There's going to be a debacle if a Dem victory is stolen. But say, Hastert steps in--as he did in CA-50--and starts swearing in Bushites before all the votes are counted. Could happen. Could well happen. A lot of things could happen. BE PREPARED.

Meanwhile, we just quietly put this AB voting strategy in motion in all the local election districts. Get together petitions of all the AB voters. Get it before county committees, and so on. Very simple: Please count our votes by hand. That's what we want. That's why we vote by AB. And post the results before you enter/scan them into the computers.

The fight over the House majority continues. We win, we lose--who knows? But it RAISES CONSCIOUSNESS! And that is the key to the future. More and more people voting by AB. More and more demands to hand count those votes.

However, I don't think that's how it's going to go. I think the political climate is too much improved for major election theft to succeed.

I'm predicting--and you heard it here first--a Democratic majority in the House, but not a strong one. A majority that has already been crafted--through Diebold/ES&S control of primary results (and possibly other means, spying, blackmail)--to prevent impeachment, and to prevent any significant reform. The swing voters will be like the Dems who voted for torture and suspension of habeas corpus--Bushite Democrats. We will have investigations, and some fireworks in the House, but it won't materially affect the top Bush criminals, nor will it firmly re-set the nation's course. That's going to take a while. And I don't think they'll let us gain a majority in the Senate.

My reason for thinking we'll get a weak majority in the House? This is how the Bushite corporations retain control of our election system for future purposes--a modest theft, carefully designed to seem like a Dem victory. It will quiet people down. It will, above all, make real election reform more difficult.

All the more reason to pursue this backdoor strategy for transparent vote counts: hand count the AB votes; post the results immediately. And if it's successful, try to extend it to the optiscan ballots. (I think the touchscreens, and paperless voting, will go by the wayside--but that may be all we get out of a compromised Dem majority in the House).

[meuniermr]

31. Something that could be a further indicator of fraud

If the predicted "soft majority" is made up of seats that would be easier for the pukes' to get back in 2008, such as MN-2, FL-24, etc. et al.

[Doctor_J]

19. Something is different this time, IMO

Not that I don't think they could steal it if they wanted too, but something is strange. I don't beleive the media has all of a sudden decided they're Dems. I believe that even the right-wingers who run the media (and the ones who count the votes) know that Bush is beyond a disaster, he's dangerous - to their agenda and to the world. They've decided to cut him loose and regroup in 2008.

:tinfoilhat:

[SharonAnn]

23. And there's so much info on the media about the Dem takeover AND

the problems with Election Machines.

So, if there's not a big Dem victory, I think most people will be very suspicious.

[MelissaB]

27. I think and hope you're right.

There has been a lot more media coverage this time and the general puplic is starting to question our elections.

[snot]

30. That doesn't mean they're ready to give up Congress. nt

[mentalsolstice]

25. What will be their cover?

The repubs are going to have to come out with a big story that looks good for them between now and 11/7 to explain why the repubs came out in droves and fence-sitters fell off in their direction. With all the polls as they are now, they can't simply smile and shrug their shoulders. By the way, it's a little scary the way the MSM is playing up the Dems lead...think about it, if a big story comes out pre-11/7, and then the numbers flip, it sells more "news" for them. The MSM loves a big story, whatever the outcome. The 2000 fiasco, with the MSM forecasting Gore's win, ended up making them money.

[LizW]

36. That's an excellent question.

What possible explaination could they come up with for a sudden huge flip at this point? The Sadaam verdict isn't big enough, imo. I do not underestimate the pro-repug bias of the msm, but I just don't see what reason they could possibly give for a flip now, after there has been so much press about the low repug approval.

[mom cat]

28. Here is another helpful graph from TIA: ... hope it helps add clarity.

Click on the image link. It shows the impace of loss of house seats based on the percentage of fraud: dem votes switched to repub. With a 4% switch, seven seats would be lost. The higher the level of fraud, the greater the loss of seats. Please focus on the seats most vulnerable to fraud and any others you feel concerned about.

[mom cat]

29. And one more helpful graph showing the dangers of fraud:

Click on the image and see thepossible changes in the more vulnerable races and the amount of "switch" that could cause a flip.

This is not to discourage anyone, but to make us keenly alert to any deviation from the expected results.

Also: Don't forget to Video the Vote!

:bounce: http://www.videothevote.org/ :bounce:

[reprehensor]

32. Bump. n/t

[bridgit]

34. ty, mom cat k&r'd...

;)

[chill_wind]

35. K&R&B for safekeeping. Thank you Mom Cat!

From all us mom cat lovers.