WTFH ?- Chafee up 1

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/ri/rhode_island_senate_race-17.html


Rhode Island Senate Race






Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Chafee (R) Whitehouse (D) Und. Spread
RCP Average 10/19 - 11/01 - 40.5 48.3 10.3 Whitehouse +7.8
Mason-Dixon 10/31 - 11/01 625 LV 46 45 9 Chafee +1.0
Reuters/Zogby 10/24 - 10/31 600 LV 39 53 6 Whitehouse +14.0
Rhode Island College 10/23 - 10/25 408 RV 33 43 24 Whitehouse +10.0
Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 500 LV 44 52 2 Whitehouse +8.0
See All Rhode Island Senate Race Polling Data

[Birthmark]

1. Looks like an outlier to me

All the other recent polls I've seen have Whitehouse comfortably ahead. If a reputable second poll shows Chaffee ahead, I'll take the M-D poll seriously.

[JCMach1]

16. Not just this race... skewed for others as well

so I think you can pretty much throw this one out.

[originalpckelly]

2. Must be a bad poll, look at all the others before and after...

they have a sizable lead for good ol' Whitehouse.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Yes, how can it be so far off - it's not like Whitehouse got caught

doing something this weekend.

[rodeodance]

3. and Burns even in MT. The senate 'takeover" is looking bad today.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Who said Burns even, just curious. Does it mean they have

the fraud fix "in" in RI and MT?

[Hav]

5. .

Yep, that's what I thought, too. TN is looking worse every day. On the other hand, I'd never thought to see polls showing Webb leading.

I guess it's normal that it's getting closer to election day, especially for an incumbant. It would really suck if we lost Montana.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. Amen. One good thing is that we have Sweitzer up there to

mind the election store.

[KharmaTrain]

8. Throw Out The Top & Bottom

Yep...sure looks like that MD is an outlier...and I'd throw out the Zogby to even things up. Put what's left together and Chaffee is still down by over 5 points...outside the MOE and in serious trouble.

[Roland99]

9. Kyl is only up 4 in AZ.

[Darkhawk32]

10. They need plausible deniability for a theft. n/t

[Roland99]

11. What was the sampling on that poll? Like new ABC/WaPo poll oversampling CONs.

[Zynx]

13. Mason-Dixon is using 2004 turnout numbers.

That's why their Ohio numbers have always been closer.

[Roland99]

14. And Ohio had a same-sex ballot in '04 which helped the rwingnuts GOTV

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. Those NBC polls looked very weird

Chaffee up 1, Dewine down only 6, Tester even with Burns, Ford down 12.

I don't buy it. Chaffee will lose by 6-8%. Dewine will lose by 8%, at least. Tester will win by 2%. Ford will lose by 4%. Webb will win by 1.5% (I've changed my thinking on nthis one). Casey will win by 9% (GOP does have good ground game in PA, which is the only reason Santorum won't lose by 12%). Cardin will win by 4%, as will Menendez. Macaskill and Talent is the only real toss-up.

[JCMach1]

15. Way too skewed... Ford is not down by 12...

Bizarro poll...

[PCIntern]

17. JC: Complete agreement with you...

just saying almost the exact same thing to my wife.

They're looking for viewers...gonna make it exciting.

I'm excited...

[Zynx]

18. I can believe PA and VA. Ohio is way out of line with every other poll

I've seen in the last two weeks. Montana is believable. I think TN is a lot closer than that. Menendez will win big. I think the margin in Maryland is correct. Missouri also seems right. Mason-Dixon averages to be quite accurate usually, but they are using a 2004 turnout model for party affiliations. I think it is a good deal different this year.

[sshan2525]

19. Not to worry....

I'm from RI. This state is small enough that it is easy to get a feel for what's going on. People here understand that this race is about Bush and not Chafee. We hate Bush more than we like Chafee. Whitehouse will win.