Sad, sad: Tennessee falls in dispair: Corker, 50 - Ford, 38

[Clark2008]

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/election/article/0,1406,KNS_630_5119238,00.html

With a new poll showing Republican Bob Corker's lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. surging to double digits days before Tuesday's election, both U.S. Senate campaigns scrambled Saturday to keep voters engaged and motivated.

The latest Mason-Dixon Tennessee Poll - conducted for The Commercial Appeal in Memphis, the Chattanooga Times-Free Press, MSNBC and McClatchy Newspapers - showed Corker leading Ford 50 percent to 38 percent among 625 likely voters.

The poll was taken by telephone Wednesday-Friday. Two weeks ago, the poll gave Corker a 45-43 lead. For Corker's campaign, the Mason-Dixon poll was another "credible independent poll" that showed their candidate leading Ford by anywhere from 5 to 10 points. But to Ford's campaign, it was another example of a "flawed" public poll that underrepresents Democrats, blacks and young voters and fails to account for the deluge in early voting that shows Democratic turnout up as much as 30 percent.

Please tell me my fellow Tennesseans aren't this stupid... please. :cry:

[itsmesgd]

1. it's just the setup groundwork for the fix come Tuesday n/t

[Subdivisions]

45. Exactly! Look for irregularities in TN on Tuesday.

[texpatriot2004]

2. Did they find those 12 missing memory cards yet? nm

[Clark2008]

5. Nope - but the GOPhers think the Dems have them, for some

odd reason. Probably because it's Memphis.

[texpatriot2004]

15. I would like to see the GOP raise the issue of election fraud -

it "wouldn't be prudent at this juncture" for them to do so. I don't think they want to go there because if they bring it up they open a huge can of worms for themselves.

[Samantha]

80. I asked my step-mother (in Tennessee) this question today

In what area did the missing cards turn on the machines: her answer (and she's a Republican) -- Chattanooga. Who is leading in that area, I asked. She responded, Ford.

If I were Ford I would be calling up Corker and asking about those cards, I said. Surprisingly enough (she's of the arch-Conservative vein and supports Corker) -- she agreed.

[seabeyond]

3. oh right, that distance happened in one day. dont listen to or believe any poll

from here on out

[Generic Other]

6. You are so right

Something fishy in Tennessee.

[struggle4progress]

79. The last week of polling suggests volatility and the importance of GOTV

(-12) Mason-Dixon Nov 5 Corker 50, Ford 38
(-08) Rasmussen Nov 4 Corker 53, Ford 45
(+06) Ham. Beattie (D) Nov 2 Ford 46, Corker 40
(-10) Zogby/Reuters Nov 2 Corker 53, Ford 43
(-01) Rasmussen Nov 2 Corker 48, Ford 47
(-08) CNN Oct 31 Corker 52, Ford 44
(-01) Zogby Int. Oct 31 Corker 49, Ford 48
(+05) Benenson (D) Oct 30 Ford 48, Corker 43
http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/election_tags/tn_sen

[in_cog_ni_to]

4. That is very sad.

I was hoping TN. would send a loud and clear message to the repukes....like: we aren't really a bunch of repuke racists.:( That poll is pathetic.

[Cameron27]

7. Oh no,

I really thought there would be a backlash against the racist ad.

[montana500]

8. Well....

"Please tell me my fellow Tennesseans aren't this stupid... please"


They listen to Nu-Country, don't they? That's about as stupid as it gets.

[Clark2008]

17. LOL! Well, I don't, so I guess that explains it.

:7

[mvd]

36. Hey, I listen to some nu-country

Proud liberal here.

[bluestateguy]

9. White people. Lots and lots of white people.

nt

[Clark2008]

20. Yes - much more so than most other Southern States

According to the 2000 census, the race breakdown is 80 percent white, 18 percent black, and 2 percent hispanic or other.

[mvd]

22. Too many racist people, I'd say

Massachusetts has a lot of white people, and they vote Democratic most of the time.

[Clark2008]

24. I don't really think that's the case.

Tennessee is no more nor any less racist than any other predominately white state (Mass isn't running any black candidates, either).

I think it's our lousy media, myself. We have no liberal media outside of Memphis and the newspapers, by and large, throughout the state are conservative to moderate leaning. We have very few liberal columnists or news/information.

But, you are correct in that THIS is what people, nationally, will think: that we're a bunch of racists. We're not, we're just stupidly blind to what the Republican Party is all about because of our lack of alternative news sources.

[mvd]

26. I didn't say it was more racist

But it could be having an effect in this race. I'm sure the majority isn't, but there still is that problem, and it can be brought out.

[Clark2008]

28. Oh, well, then we agree.

I just keep hoping that the polling is fucked up, myself.

Afterall, data is indicating that Democrats beat Republicans in early voting by 18 percent.

Maybe the pollsters aren't polling people who have ALREADY voted? :shrug:

[mvd]

30. It's possible they eliminate those voters through the..

preliminary questions. I hope the polls are wrong - Ford would be one of our most conservative Democrats, but we need the majority now!

[shanti]

66. try googling

pulaski, tennessee, klan, and see what comes up...

[StellaBlue]

44. Just because a Southern state elects a white over a black person does NOT mean they are racist

That is so ignorant.

It just means they are stupid, tax-cut-loving, Nancy-Pelosi-fearing, flag-waving white people.

[mvd]

48. But it wouldn't be right to ignore the racist factor

It's still there. Sometimes it can put a candidate over the top. Not ignorant at all - just facing reality.

[Hippo_Tron]

68. The racist factor is still alive

A lot of it is from older people who grew up before the civil rights movement. And I'm not saying that they all vote Republican. My grandmother (who doesn't live in the south) votes pretty solidly democratic, but she'll tell you that she's uncomfortable living near black people. It's a generational thing largely and I think that if Ford got elected it would start to break down a lot of these barriers. But unfortunately it doesn't look like that is going to happen. IMO, Ford's debate performance was lousey and Corker is a better politician than we expected.

[Retired AF Dem]

72. Since I'm white does that make me not wanted here?

sure sounds like it. Maybe I shouldnt waste my vote on a party that hates me for my color.

[shanti]

65. yes, lots and lots of

RACIST white people. tennessee is home to a large number of klan members.

[itsmesgd]

10. vote vote vote

Vote like mad this Tuesday. Take people with you to vote. Let's at least make them have to steal a large percentage of votes, then the people who don't see the corruption will have it thrust in their faces, unable to deny it any longer.

[NashVegas]

11. The Bimbo Ad Hurt

Not just for the ad, but for the Dem reaction to it. They spent five days screaming for the ad to be pulled, bringing more attention to it and playing into the Dems-are-sissies bunch's hands. Result: by the time the GOP was done with its ad and ready to hit Ford with their hardest punch - his corrupt family - his pants were down.

Ford's family has been his #1 weakness even before he became a senate candidate. The pukes kept their gloves on about said family, for the most part, until last week. The ad they started using after 'Bimbo' ran its course was the hardest hitting, IMO.

[phillysuse]

12. Poll taken by land based telephone

Just remember that this poll was taken by land based telephone.

That's right.

People who only have cell phones are not included.

Who has only a cell phone?

Younger voters
Poor people
Those who move frequently
African Americans

This poll therefore over sampled older people, rich people and those who own their home rather than rent.

Do not despair. Get Out the Vote

[KingFlorez]

13. There is no way he's down by that much

Ford's got more ground than that. Election day will prove to be different, Democratic turnout will be large, because the early voting already had a lot of Democrats coming to vote.

[Ediacara]

14. Mason-Dixon is a garbage poller

As far as I can tell, they're contracted out by right-leaning newspapers to produce the results the newspapers want to see, and are almost always outliers.

[tritsofme]

18. Mason Dixon is one of the best state pollsters

Go look at their final polls and actually results. They usually do quite well.

[Clark2008]

21. They do - but not in Tennessee, for some reason.

Not sure why.

But, coupled with the other polling, it's a gauge and all the gauges have Ford on empty, sadly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. A Few Points...

Mason Dixon is an accurate polling firm... I could give a rip about their ideology as long as their math is legit. I am a reality based Democrat:


http://www.ncpp.org/files/2004%20Election%20Polls%20Review.pdf


That being said they are out on a limb with this pick:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/ri/rhode_island_senate_race-17.html


I'm not surprised at all that Harold Ford will likely lose but I am bitterly, bitterly disappointed...

[Ediacara]

69. I have not found that to be true

Sorry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

74. They Seem To Be Accurate

http://www.ncpp.org/files/2004%20Election%20Polls%20Review.pdf

[mvd]

25. This election, they have been a little closer to the Repukes than..

other polls. They have Brown ahead by only 6 in Ohio, while another poll out today has him up by 24. I also think Tester is up instead of tied.

[featherman]

16. Agree that Mason-Dixon is a skewed poll historically but

both Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg agree that this race has moved away from Ford in the past couple of weeks and that Corker has the momentum.

Part of the problem is the undecideds group has shrunk and, bucking a trend elsewhere, may break evenly rather than 2-1 or better for the DEM.

The other big problem that likely dooms Ford is that polls generally overestimate the number of whites who are actually willing to vote for an African-American, ie, they'll tell the pollster the "politically correct" thing but once in the voting booth they won't do it. According to this historical formula it was Ford who needed a 7 point lead going in to have a chance at victory.

All that being said, let's roll out a tidal wave of DEM voters on Tuesday and see what happens.
I am looking at undecideds breaking for the DEMS in the last couple of days. It just may not help much in TN.

[mvd]

29. I don't know if have always been bad, but..

reputable polls can be bought out. They weren't so great in 2004, either. They had Bush winning in New Hampshire and up by more than he won by in other states.

[Ediacara]

70. This is what I was trying to get across

I don't have a lot of hope for Ford, but I don't have a lot of trust in M-D. They show Montana tied, Ohio close, and Chafee in the lead in RI. NO ONE is seeing ANYTHING like that.

[TerdlowSmedley]

19. Speaking of the Fords, how is Steve Cohen's campaign holding

up against little brother, Jake?

[Clark2008]

23. I don't know - I'm on the other end of the state.

Sorry I can't help you.

[msongs]

31. repblican vs republican-lite is not a strategy, as the saying goes - >

when given a choice between a real republican and a republican-lite, the republicans will vote for the real republican every time.

maybe ford Jr ought to embrace equality for ALL americans (and other human beings as well), not just the ones approved by his religion.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Is That Why Tennessee Went For Bu$h Over Their Native Son (Gore) In 2000?

"when given a choice between a real republican and a republican-lite, the republicans will vote for the real republican every time "

[Lars39]

41. TN elections weren't clean:

http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:Hn16hCLjLBUJ:www.counterpunch.org/tnfraud.html+TN+2000+voter+fraud&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=2&client=firefox-a

[LizW]

32. Don't fall for it, Tennessee!

I don't believe it. Vote, Tennessee Dems, vote!

[porphyrian]

33. I thought the election was Tuesday. - n/t

[Clark2008]

35. It is, but it's sad that some how, some way, a pollster was able

to squeeze this kind of information out of Tennessee.

It should never have been close - Ford should be leading by a Texas mile. He's more articulate, he has plans and he's not a nasal-sounding dweeb.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. We Should Have Seen This Coming...

Yes...Everything you have said about Corker is true...

Sports is like politics...Sometimes the good guys don't win... You just pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and try again...


Peace

DSB

[porphyrian]

39. My guess is that it isn't true and it's just an attempt to make us stop trying.

It's probably a close race. Today and tomorrow people should focus on GOTV in Tennessee.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

38. A weak DLC candidate in a red state.

One who wants to be all things to all people and stands for little.

[Clark2008]

43. He's still better than Corker, though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Fred Thompson Is Better Than Corker...

I watch him on Law And Order...


He has the "southern man" act don't pat...

[Clark2008]

50. Thompson also voted against convicting Clinton on the

impeachment charges, too.

He wasn't horrible at all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. I Don't Think He Voted Against All The Counts...

He did try to split the baby...


He is good at playing "everyman" though...

[tnlefty]

40. What do you think about this?:

Who was asked?

305 men - 49%
320 women - 51%

526 whites - 84%
87 blacks - 14%
12 other/refused - 2%

Where do they live?
E. TN - 230
M. TN - 225
W. TN - 70

What's their party affiliation?
Dem - 34%
Rep. - 38%
Independent/other - 28%

[Clark2008]

47. Wow!

Talk about overrepresenting East Tennessee! ET is the smallest region, population-wise, and they had the largest numbers in the polling????

Not to mention they over-sampled whites.

Hmmmm.... thanks for this.

Put that sample of polling with this:

Elections Commssion said early voting was tremendous. When asked what helped spur the enthusiasm, they said the young vote was much higher than expected. - Great news for the Ford Camp.


Numbers
Shelby County
06 Registered Voters 606,000
06 - 24%
02 - 13%
Great Turnout. Record breaking in off or presidential year vote, 04 number was 14%

Davidson
06 Registered Voters 366,634
06 - 24%
02 – 17%
Great Turnout a little short of a presidentail election year but when you look at the numbers compared to the active voter numbers, turnout came close to matching presidential elecion year numbers 06: 33.3% 04: 35%

Hamilton
06 Registered Voters 203,300
06 – 17%
02 – 13%
While an increase it is pretty lack luster compared to Fords home turf. It seems Corker's base failed to motivate his own community to the polls. This is also off from presidential 04 numbers -7%

Knox County
06 Registered Voters 243,748
06 - 29%
02 – 24%
While an increase again, still lackluster. The most staggering number comes when you look at the turnout compared to the 06 election cycle. The county turned out 60% in early voting in the 04 race. They are down -31%....... Not good at all for Corker

http://www.blogger.com/publish-comment.do?blogID=14553702&postID=116252357867548298&r=ok

[tnlefty]

51. Kinda puts a slightly different perspective on things doesn't it?

I'm concerned that this will be used as the set-up for election shenanigans though.

[Clark2008]

56. Breaking out my tin-foil

:tinfoilhat:

If Tennessee DOES go Ford, you're saying, then, that the GOP here will challenge everything, using these lousy polls to say that those 12 missing recordable voting cards were used to push Ford over the top, correct?

If so, then I say, we say, "Tough noogies. You had a chance to fix it after the 2004 election in Ohio and you ignored it. Can't go back, now, when the favor is OFF of you and say you want to fix it."

[William Bloode]

52. I think you have it there!

Thats a huge over sampling of the east section. This is the lowest poulation wise, and more likely to be racist. No offense but there are a lot of isolated ignorant people in the east. Before anyone flames me for that i know the area as well as anyone. I was born a stones throw from Johnson city and still own land in the area.

[Clark2008]

54. I'm in Knoxville - and, while my city isn't overly racist, I know

what you're saying about the likes of Blount, Sevier and Campbell counties.

[tnlefty]

64. What about the areas of Knox away from the city?

Add parts of Hamilton, Bradley, Polk, Meigs, Sequatchie....

[EFerrari]

58. Exactly! This poll is a POS!

LOOK AT WHO THEY ASKED!

[demwing]

78. That racial divide is accurate

According to the latest census, Tennessee in 2004 was 80% white, 16% black. Just about in line with the poll sampling.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/47000.html

[BootinUp]

42. There are a lot of undecideds there. Take heart

I think the Dems will do better on election day at getting the votes out.

[SouthernBelle82]

49. Which polling people did this?

If this is the Mason Dixon poll they aren't very reliable. They in 2001 said Governor Phil Bredesn wouldn't win and he did and they said that my mayor wouldn't win but he did. If this is the poll you are talking about it isn't very reliable. I also find it interesting how Corker only shows the polls that have him a head and not the other one's that have him either neck and neck with Ford or a little behind.

[Selatius]

55. Hey, it's Tennessee. What did you expect? Look at these graphs.

Here is a graph of several different polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Sen_graphs/tennessee.html

I live in Mississippi. How do you think I feel?

[Jax]

57. Does Tennessee have early voting?

Could those 'likely voters' in this poll have already voted for Ford?

Hang in there, my extended family in Tennessee feels like Ford has a good chance.

[bigtree]

59. yep. Election officials say half of those registered have already voted

and the majority were dems

(hope I got that right)

[Cameron27]

62. Yessiree

that's exactly what Ford and another Dem strategist said this morning.

[Mr_Spock]

60. He's on on CSPAN repeat now with Bill Clinton

They are both very inspirational speakers - too bad Ford is not ahead at this time. He may still win though - that poll seems a bit lopsided.

[EFerrari]

61. Ford is a good speaker. Watching, too. Would Clinton be there

if this race was lost? I sincerely doubt it.

[Mr_Spock]

63. Clinton came to support Patrick in Mass

He's up by like 25 points now (low of 15 ahead during visit), I do not take such a bleak view of a Clinton visit :D

[emdee]

67. You wouldn't believe the number of....

phone calls and mailbox stuffers we're receiving. Even before 9am this morning, on Sunday, automated phone calls using 9/11 and "Let's Roll" talking points were being received.

If they'd used the money spent on mail, they could've paid off the deficit.

emdee

[WinkyDink]

71. Gore, 2000. They ARE that stupid.

[Onlooker]

73. Racism

If the people of Tennessee wouldn't vote for Al Gore, what makes you believe they'll vote for Harold Ford, Jr.? I bet a good 20% of the people of that backward state wouldn't vote for any black person, even a conservative. It's despicable. The fact is from everything I have read and seen, Harold Ford, Jr. is far more well-spoken, has far more balanced views, and is a far better politician that Bob Corker. If he loses, the only explanation is racism, and that means that there are parts of Tennessee that are stuck in the dark ages. Pathetic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

76. I'll Give "Most" Folks Of TN A Pass...

It's a pretty red state... They haven't elected a Democratic senator since 1990...

[Clark2008]

77. Yeah - but we're not that backward: we have a Dem governor

and a majority of Dems in our state house and senate.

It's our national choices that seem so very bleak.

[bigwillq]

75. Polls, polls

It's an uphill battle for Ford, was from the beginning, but the only poll that counts is on Tuesday.

I think it'll be close.