On Republican turnout on Tuesday

[bluestateguy]

We are hearing a lot of talk about Republican turnout and evangelical Christian turnout on Tuesday. Will it hold? Will it be lighter than in 2004? Will some evangelicals vote Democratic? I'd like to raise a few points here that have not been pointed out. First, turnout in a midterm election year is always less than in a presidential year, usually by about 15%. Some of their people will stay home, but so will some of ours. Regrettably, many Americans only think that presidential elections are worth voting in. So who votes and who stays home? I would submit here that white evangelical Christian turnout will be in about the same proportion as it was in 2004 (relative to the whole electorate), maybe a slight shade less. I think that the thing that has to be distinguished when assessing evangelical turnout is how interested in politics is the person? Not all evangelicals really like politics all that much. I think the evangelicals who like politics and are engaged with the political process will still turnout to vote, but that maybe some of those evangelicals for whom politics is only an occasional exercise, some of them may take a walk. On the other hand, what hasn't been given a lot of press is the level of turnout among moderate and/or libertarian Republicans. I think that is where the party could really be hurting on Tuesday. I can see a lot of these folks either staying home or defecting to the Democrats on Tuesday. I think it's worth keeping an eye on.

[Monkeyman]

1. The 72 hour get out the vote has started in IL

Replugs are calling,emailing, and going door to door. I have had 10 calls and received 19 emails in the last 24 hours.

[Dob Bole]

2. I don't foresee evangelicals staying home on Tuesday

Voting is an exercise in which, ultimately, each person pulls a lever (or touches a screen) for his/her deepest beliefs. I think the more likely scenario is that many evangelicals who voted for Clinton and then jumped ship to Bush will vote Democratic again on Tuesday.

[ps1074]

4. The last NY Times poll

has the evangelical vote split 50-50. In 2004 Bush won something like 75% of it.

[Dob Bole]

6. Well, the 75% figure is only WHITE evangelicals....

Overall, Democrats usually get about 40% of the vote...so this is still a 10 percent increase.

[bigtree]

3. where's the credit for our own party members' motivation?

the mid term vote is traditionally a 'no' vote. We have the most to protest against. I don't see any predominating issue which would animate the evangelicals.


http://journals.democraticunderground.com/bigtree

[featherman]

5. For a little "contrariness" my shipping manager ONLY votes in off

year elections because he can't stand the idea of the Electoral College. Just a different point of view.

[griffi94]

7. i think the gop base

will turnout like always
i just don't think the gop gets the same share of the middle
that they did in 02-04
my father is a broken glass gop supporter
and he didn't vote this year