I have always said that, if for some reason, the national polls start to tighten up and people get worried, look no further than Ohio, where Dems will win big no matter what the national environment is, because the state environment has choked every elephant in sight. Republicans are doomed in the Buckeye State.
http://www.dispatch.com/?story=dispatch/2006/11/05/20061105-A1-02.html<snip>
With more than a third of Ohioans ready to vote a straight Democratic ticket, Republicans could be headed for electoral disaster Tuesday unless their vaunted get-out-the-vote effort comes through.
Fueled by a huge margin favoring gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland at the top of the ticket, Democrats have moved into position to sweep all statewide nonjudicial offices, a new Dispatch Poll shows.
The elephant graveyard also appears ready to claim two-term Republican Sen. Mike DeWine, who trails Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown by more than 20 points.
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The poll shows that 35 percent are voting a straight Democratic ticket, twice those casting a party-line GOP vote. Perhaps even more telling: Almost five times as many independents are voting for all Democrats as are backing all Republicans.
Strickland is winning support from a third of those who voted for President Bush in 2004, while Brown is getting 23 percent.
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The Democratic blowout depicted in the poll is contingent on a strong turnout of party faithful Tuesday. The mail survey had 8 percent more Democratic respondents than Republican; typically, the returns show slightly more Republicans voting. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry would be president if the turnout in 2004 looked like these poll results.
That showing fuels the stunning lead for Strickland, and even Republicans acknowledge that a rout at the top of the ticket could lead not only to Democratic victories in the other statewide matchups but could spread to congressional, legislative and even county races.
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"The voter intensity is really low for Republicans and really high for Democrats," said veteran GOP lobbyist Neil S. Clark, owner of a Columbus media consulting firm. "There’s not a lot of confidence in Republicans right now."
Rex Elsass, a longtime Columbus GOP consultant, ticked off some of the factors hurting Republicans this year: scandals, an unpopular war, a president on the defensive and a governor with a microscopic approval rating.
"In any given election year, you could handle one or two of those issues, but when you’ve got this many logs on the fire, you can’t walk across the hot coals and not get your feet burned," Elsass said. "We’re living through Watergate. That’s the only thing you can compare this to. It’s bad nationally, and worse in Ohio."
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More than 20% of Republicans are voting for Sherrod Brown? That is HUGE, because Brown is very liberal. We're not talking Bob Casey or Harold Ford here, we're talking about a progressive warrior. His voting record would normally be enough to solidify Republicans behind DeWine. If Brown is catching a full 20% of the vote up-ballot, how do you think Dems are doing down-ballot in the House races, where voters know less about them and Republicans are less exposed to negative attack ads about them? If Sherrod Brown can snatch that much of the disgruntled GOP vote, the Dems must be raking it in down-ballot. Twice as many voters casting straight-Dem tickets than Republicans.
2/3 of Ohio's delegation is Republican. This is why I have remained so confident about our chances at retaking the House. Because the Republicans basically lost a guaranteed 9 seats in this election already, regardless of the national political environment, and we can truly count on Ohio to bring us in more in case we need them:
AZ-1 (Nominated firebrand right-wing nut)
CO-7 (Colorado undergoing massive political change)
IA-1 (Just a heavy Dem district, never stood a chance)
TX-22 (Delay)
FL-16 (Foley)
PA-7 (Weldon)
PA-10 ('I choked the bitch' Sherwood)
OH-18 (Bob Ney)
OH-15 (Deborah Pryce)
There are multiple seats that are now up for play in Ohio beyond those two. Jean Schmidt in the 2nd district is down in the polls, as is Steve Chabot in the 1rst district. What's important to note here is this:
There is not a single district in Ohio that has been polled in which the Republican is winning. Not a single one. They are losing in all four districts that have been polled. OH-18, 15, 1, 2.
Remember Washington state back in 1994? What happened? The Republicans massacred 5 Democrats, including the Speaker of the House, more than half the Dem delegation was lost. Well, John Boehner is from Ohio, and I'm willing to bet that the reason there haven't been any internal polls released by Republicans in any of the other districts is because the results don't look good. Make no mistake, ladies and gentlemen. Jean Schmidt is losing in the 2nd district, and she represents the MOST solid Republican district in the entire state. If we can bring her down, we can pay back the GOP for Washington, 1994.
They're all going down.
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