Well crap: 2007 recession has already begun...

[originalpckelly]

"By now it is clear that several sectors of the economy are already in a recession, that Q4 growth will be lower than Q3 growth and that a formal recession (two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth) will very likely start by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007...

...we are also into an auto sector recession that is getting worse by the month as major auto makers as slashing production in face of sluggish sales and massive excess capacity. But this is not just a auto sector recession. We are also already in a manufacturing recession and non-manufacturing industrial recession too: two months of consecutive fall in industrial production, a manufacturing ISM that was borderline awful (just above the 50 recession mark), continued and persistent fall in manufacturing employment (-39K in October alone). Things are getting particularly bad in consumer durables sectors (autos, home appliance, furniture, etc.) as these are closer to housing; but more broadly almost all industrial sectors are contracting...

...We are not yet in a service sector recession but we are getting close to it. Wal-Mart's sales number were not only awful for October; they expect their sales to be flat in November, the worst performance in a decade. The troubles of Wal-Mart - in spite of much lower oil prices - are also the troubles of most other retailers as the figures yesterday for most major retailers' same store sales were mediocre and disappointing...

...note that both employment and the unemployment rate are lagging indicators of the business cycles. So, it is pretty bad if the best we can do is to add 92K jobs even before an economy-wide recession has started...Q4 growth is headed to be even worse than the dismal Q3 and the economy is highly likely to enter into an outright recession by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007."
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/19917
^^^Partial article excerpt from a blog site.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/155736
^^^Full article.

[originalpckelly]

1. This is not in the slightest good...

many people are already in a bind let alone something like this happening.

[seabeyond]

2. better nowthan after dems get in and get the blame n/t

[porphyrian]

3. Just wait until the Christmas shopping reports come in. - n/t

[Demeter]

4. Based on the # of Ads in Sunday's Paper, Xmas Shopping Begun

Walmart already discounting, too. It's going to be an in-the-red, black and blue Christmas. Serves the corporate bastards right, IMO. And gas went back up again this week.

[MadHound]

5. Well, it was inevitable that this house of cards, that passes for an economy

Would come tumbling down. When the huge recession/depression loomed after the tech bubble burst and 911 happened, Greenspan deftly lowered interest rates and shifted that investment money into the housing market, thus pumping up the housing bubble exponentially. Now that bubble has burst, and the money fled into "safe" investments such as the Dow blue chips. But those companies and stocks are suffering and are no longer sound investments, so much of the money is going to flee off shore. Every time a step in this cycle occurs, more money is lost or taken out of circulation.

In addition, we're seeing the effects of rising energy prices, as more household money is diverted towards that. In addition since the rich are no longer paying their fair share of taxes, more and more of the burden is being shifted onto the backs of the middle class and poor via property and sales taxes. All of this means less discretionary money for households to spend.

Plus, we're now starting to see the effects that ten years of outsourcing has produced. Sure, the amount of jobs available are roughly the same, but the pay for those isn't. Manufacturing jobs pay 2-3 times as much as service sector jobs, but the vast majority of the manufacturing sector is now done overseas.

And on top of all this is the huge debt that the US is carrying. Carrying that kind of debt means that we're sailing into an economic headwind, and our progress can't be easily sustained, if at all.

All of this means that we're looking down the barrel of an economic disaster, one that could quite possibly make the Great Depression look like the Roaring Twenties.

[Double T]

6. A phony rosy economy can roll along, supported by its promoters........

UNTIL eventually ALL the wheels fall off the wagon. The manipulated phony lower energy prices will turn upward AFTER November 7th 2006. The phony unemployment numbers are ACTUALLY in the double digits, 12% or more; NOT the bogus number of 4.4% touted by bushco. Look around, plants and offices are closing and moving offshore in record numbers!! The family paycheck is stagnant with the cost of basic living expenses consuming ALL the wages with NO disposable income left. You can not have super-freighters bringing container after container of cheap foreign made goods to the USA, while very little is going back in the other direction WITHOUT IT eventually causing a serious economic problem; 'WE' are THERE. The rethugs are going to try and lay THIS disaster on the shoulders of the Democrats that are likely to take back at least the House in Congress. The corporate and wall street traitors, enabled by the congress and the K Street criminals, have sown the seeds of THIS economic destruction.