Individual Polls show slight Democratic uptick

[Quixote1818]

We have six national polls out in over the weekend. Three say their is a trend toward Dem's and three say their is a trend toward Republicans. In my opinion these polls have Zero meaning. It's the individual polls that count.

I have been monitoring this sight: http://www.pollster.com/house.php like a hawk and in the past couple of days Dem's have had only 2 races shift from Dem to Toss up while Republicans have had I believe 5 races shift from Republican to toss up. I don't remember the exact Republican number but I know for a fact they have had more sold Republican seats shift to toss up. So individual polls show things very steady with a slight uptick toward the Dem's.


These are the polls that matter. Don't worry about National polls that may be picking up a lot of extra Republicans in heavy republican areas to begin with. Those polls really mean very little.

[longship]

1. Bingo!!!!

The trend is what is important.

If one were to plot "number of competitive races" vs "incumbent party" over the past six months you'll see what is going to happen tomorrow.

The "Dem Incumbent" plot would be decreasing gradually to the current few competitive races. Is there even six Dem seats in real danger now?

The "Rep Incumbent" plot would be monolithically increasing to a point about a month ago where it takes off (due to the increased polling). But the inevitable result is that more Republican-held seats are threatening "take-over" as time approaches Election Day. The current number of seats is probably about 70 House seats.

This is an analysis nobody has published, but it is one of the most inescapable facts of this election cycle.

Add this to all the other global indicators and one cannot escape from the inevitable conclusion.

Now, the individual candidate polls are going to say things are tightening, but that is because the pollsters have a built-in "Republicans finish strong" into their models, which this year will be contrary to fact. Any "Republicans finish strong" will be countered by "Democrats and independents are incredibly activated" and by "More Republicans and independents will vote for Democrats than in recent history". In other words, the pollsters and the flapping gums on the media are going to be wrong about this uptick.

[Quixote1818]

2. Based on the individual polls I am predicting Dem's to finish with

around 235 to 237 seats. I am going out on a limb with that but that is exactly what the individual polls are saying. Dem's are solidly ahead in 220 races with 28 as toss ups. But if you look close at the toss ups Dem's are slightly ahead in over 50% of them. That means if we win the 220 plus just 1/2 of the "Toss Up" races we end with 234 seats. I think we get 1 to 3 beyond that.

[longship]

3. I'll go further.

I think that they will take the vast majority of those races. Furthermore, as the polls close in the East and things begin shaping up for a "wave", the West coast will flip even more strongly to the Dems as Repukes will stay home and Dems will get to the polls. That's where all the big surprises are going to occur.

The dynamics of this year are different than I've ever seen in my forty years of political activism. It's going to pay for us.

Dems could be at over 250 seats by the end of the night.

[Quixote1818]

4. That would not surprise me at all. nt